Thoughts on Bautista - 50hr...

[Anthony S.]

Of course players can get away with it. Major leaguers aren't even tested for HGH.

[Rich Klein]

we may never know

and sometimes players have "that" magical year.

Tito Francona, (Terry's dad) hit something like .363 in 1959 -- Tito was a good player -- but .363 was just off the charts

Davey Johnson gets traded to Atlanta in 1973 and goes from a previous high of 18 homers all the way to 43

Tony Gonzalez, a competant but not great major leaguer -- somehow hits .339 in 1967 during the age of the pitcher. In retrospect, who saw that coming

Felix Mantilla goes to Boston in 1964, becomes a regular and hits 30 homers that year. He had never really been close before

Cleon Jones was a good major league hitter, but in 1969 -- he hit .340 or so to help the Mets win the World Series.


(If my figures are wrong, I'm doing this from the top of my head and don't be afraid to post the real numbers and I'll edit them)

My point is, sometimes players have those magical years and sometimes everything just clicks for a year. A player might start strong, make a minor adjustment, and gains confidence. All of a sudden, they are in the "Sweet spot" and that sweet spot lasts a full season -- or in a tennis grand slam for the full 2 weeks. I always like to point out Andres Gomez the 1990 French Open tennis champion.

Andres was an honest professional, a better doubles player than singles player, but beat a young Andre Agassi to win that final. After that, he only played 2 more years and never got past the 2nd round of a major nor had he been that close before. But things broke right for "go-go" in those 2 weeks and he is a grand slam winner.

So, we'll never know with Bautista, but "fluky" things do happen

Rich

[slidekellyslide]

Originally Posted by Anthony S.

Of course players can get away with it. Major leaguers aren't even tested for HGH.

There is no effective test for HGH. It would cost MLB too much money to test everyone and it probably would catch no one. I think they are randomly doing it in the minor leagues, but I haven't heard if anyone has tested positive or not.

[hunterdutchess]

Man just 12 more homers and we would have a new single season home run champ : )

[chaddurbin]

fluky high batting averages can be explained by luck when balls are in play. spike in hr total out of the blue would suggest modern chemistry.

[alanu]

He reminds me of Ibanez, a really late bloomer. I don't think we'll ever know about the HGH, but all HR hitters will be questioned until they can properly test for it.

[familytoad]

Here's another guy who went HR-happy at age 30 who weighed in about a buff 195 lbs (sure)...what were the pundits saying about Hack? He hit 23% of his career total in that one year. (For reference... Bautista is at 48% of his career total coming in 2010)

As mentioned before, sometimes it all just "clicks" for a season or two for these athletes. It's a shame that PEDs cloud these accomplishments.

Anyway, I thought it was time for a old baseball card scan :

[packs]

I don't think he's juicing. It's purely a feeling though. His game has not changed dramatically enough for me to think he's juicing. While his home run output has clearly jumped, his batting average has not. If I remember correctly, the years where Sosa and McGwire were really juicing it their batting averages went sky high compared to their career average. Maybe that's luck, maybe that has nothing to do with the juice, but it certainly seems coincidental. Bautista is still hovering near his usual hitting ability but is just making better contact with the ball. Looks to be a Carlos Pena kind of player to me.

[DixieBaseball]

Re : Bautista : Innocent until proven guilty.
(see George Foster's stats from 1977 in comparison to everyone elses. I like the new(old) Baseball. We are back to the 70's where if a player hits 30 dongs, it matters. 40 is really special, and 50 is reserved for one player.)

[Anthony S.]

Originally Posted by familytoad

Here's another guy who went HR-happy at age 30 who weighed in about a buff 195 lbs (sure)...what were the pundits saying about Hack? He hit 23% of his career total in that one year. (For reference... Bautista is at 48% of his career total coming in 2010)

As mentioned before, sometimes it all just "clicks" for a season or two for these athletes. It's a shame that PEDs cloud these accomplishments.

Anyway, I thought it was time for a old baseball card scan :

You mean 1930, the year that the National League as a whole hit .300?

2010 is the year of the pitcher, isn't it? 5 no-hitters.

[familytoad]

I wouldn't call 2010 the year of the pitcher, although everything is relative in life I suppose.
In 1990 Cecil Fielder led MLB with 51 homers and an all-time modern record 9 no-hitters were thrown that year.
Clearly the modern day "year of the pitcher" is 1968 though.

Back to 1930, most of baseball hit near .300, but not everyone hit 50 HR's.
Individually, Hack Wilson set NL records for HR and RBI. Of all the established greats playing at that time, I'm guessing that few would have picked Wilson to be the league leader and record setter. I think that parallels with Bautista's season, a surprise HR leader, breaking out at age 30.

Besides...I don't have scans of Brady Anderson or Greg Vaughn cards to post