Market for Pre War Cards -How far down is down?

[smtjoy]

I think what Barry said is right on the money. I think everyone got the feeling that pre war and some high grade post war card prices were going to continue to go up and poured money in to get a piece of the action. I remember auction results 3-4 years ago and nearly every lot was a new all time high. This year it seems like you see a few items getting great numbers but the rest is off. 4 years ago I was lucky to win anything at the auctions, this year I have had to hold back recently as I have won cards in 9 auctions and the budget is busting and I have the same budget as I did then.

That also makes me wonder how much of that was shilling and other funky stuff. I find it interesting that a few auction houses are no longer reporting their results to VCP, I get the feeling they dont want to advertise the lower prices they are bringing in or they are worried about shilling/FBI and leaving a price trail that people like Jeff can use as an example of "how can that price be good when the same card has sold 6 times this year for 20% of that price each time" and those result do really make me wonder and im sure many others do. Are the auction houses partly to blame for a bubble, I know things like shilling, extending crazy amounts of credits to buyers so they can flip on ebay then pay for their winnings have had an adverse effect on true values.

I mainly collect exhibits and I can say that most of the common cards have been selling very soft (off 20-40%) but as soon as a tough card like (26-29 plain backgound, 31-32, 33's) go for sale they get big numbers. I also collect Clemente cards and his Topps cards in 8 or 9 are all down as well as many of his common stuff but when you see his Plak selling for major money and some of his much harder stuff goes big it makes you think scarcity is playing a huge part too.