Investment Potential

[ctownboy]

Things to consider;

1) Do NOT count on whales to continue to support the market. I would say there are very few of them around and all it takes is for a couple to stop collecting and sell their cards and prices will go down. This could happen because they lose their high paying jobs, their stock or real estate portfolios tank, they get sued and lose, they get divorced or they die and their heirs have no interest in the cards but HUGE interest in the cash they would generate when they are sold.

Also, from what I have heard of the whales, most are good or great in business but not all would be considered really interested in baseball itself. So, as long as cards in general (and certain cards in particular) continue to increase in value, these whales will still be interested in "collecting" and still want to own cards. However, if the T206 Wagner, or a lot of the lesser rarities start going down in value then these guys will start downsizing their collections.

If things start to snowball, some of the other whales will want out and they will sell their cards. Even if you are a whale, the idea of losing $1 million dollars (or more) on cards would be a tough pill to swallow.

If (when?) this happens, those whales who are more into "collecting" because of the possible monetary gains (and not the sport or cards themselves) sell their collections they will likely NOT return to cards but will go off into some other area to try and make money.

Less money chasing fewer cards means a downdraft for everything. If a rising tide raises all ships then the opposite is also true.

2) I was born in 1967 and grew up in a small town. My high school graduating class was about 160 people. Let's say half of those people were male. That is about 80 guys in my class.

When I was collecting cards around 1979 or 1980, I can remember at least 10 other guys in my own class who also collected cards. That is about 14% of all the guys in my 8th grade class who collected. That figure doesn't count guys who I didn't know collected cards, guys who occasionally bought some packs to open but who really didn't "collect" cards or ANY girls in my class who might have collected.

By the time I graduated, most of those guys didn't collect any more and I had bought a few of their collections. I seriously doubt if many of those guys ever started collecting again.

Now compare that to middle school children of today. How many of them are SERIOUS baseball (or other sports) card collectors? I bet very few are. I have four Nephews and a Niece who are between the ages of 7 and 18 and NONE of them collect cards.

My 18-year old Nephew used to collect Pokemon and Yu-Gi-Oh cards but he stopped doing that years ago. Now, he spends what extra money he has on video games and his car. He has ZERO interest in collecting baseball cards. The ONLY thing he is interested in, as far as my collection goes, is how much it would be worth if I sold it. Same goes for the other four.

I would say THAT is what a majority of kids are like today. Little or no interest in collecting cards or knowing about the history of baseball or the players but HUGE interest in how much these little pieces of artwork would be worth if sold.

Also, when you tell them that a certain card is valued at or could be sold for $300, they either 1) say they couldn't afford that card even if they wanted to collect ball cards or 2) (most likely) say that $300 dollars could buy them a game console and a few games or a cell phone and a calling plan.

So, with few kids collecting today and the prices so high on the older cards that entry is tough, the future of collecting doesn't look bright to me. Especially considering most everything is going digital and things actually made of paper are becoming fewer and far between.

Face it, newspaper circulation is decreasing because people are reading the news on their computers. Book sales are either decreasing or staying flat because people can either download a book off the web and onto their computers or use some other electronic means to buy and store a book. I imagine in 20 years or so, kids who want to collect "old" baseball cards will be doing so by gathering images on their electronic devices and storing their "collections" on a microchip instead of a shoe box or binder in their closet.

3) Just because a card is old and rare doesn't mean it is really valuable or that it is going to skyrocket in value. For example, I have 16 (out of a currently possible 73) Star Player Candy cards from 1928. Three of the players are Hall of Famers (but not Ruth, Gehrig or Cobb). I would say there are no more than five cards (if that) known for each of the cards I own. That would put them in the "old" and "rare" category.

Guess what? I would not even be close to being able to retire if I sold these cards. Because the cards are so rare and not very well known, nobody really is trying to complete a set. That means no whales competing against each other. The only real interest in these cards are as a type card or for a certain player for a certain reason.

If I wanted to sell these cards today, I would be lucky if the Hall of Famers sold for $1,000 each and the commons for $400 a piece. I have been offered $1,000 dollars for one common card because a guy collects that ONE player and NEEDS him. If this collector finds another 1928 SPC card of this player, interest in my card will drop to nearly zero.

I also have another common card which might reach $1,000 dollars but that is only because he is a Jewish player.

So, 16 "old" and "rare" cards that would sell for less than $10,000 dollars, combined. Good money but not anything to really write home about, as far as the whales are concerned and no real price spike in the forseeable future.