The Depression of 2008

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Posted By: Kenneth A. Cohen

What's so disappointing to me about Obama now is his disingenuous lieing maintaining that he was unaware of any such pronouncements by his spirtuial advisor of 20 plus years. He has revealed himself as just another slimy politician believing himself capable of easily hoodwinking a gullible electorate with smooth talk. He self righteously eshews the race card now but, by lieing in bed with his preacher in order to establish his local political cred, availed himself of it over many years. It's a long time between now and November and anything can happen -but he should be toast.

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Posted By: leon

Thanks for the clarification. We are in agreement...completely. Although I was raised in the Jewish faith I sort of have my own ideas which I won't go into here. Whoever says that state and religion should always be seperate is correct, imo. Also, to the point about which Corey is making. I agree with that also...however to Cy's point too..I have met many of my little girl's teachers and I don't see a bit of apathy in them. They are really good...again, though, I do believe our little school district is different than most.... best regards

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Posted By: John S

Wow...this thread has ADHD.

Teaching is not the same as it was in the 50's. We tend to romanticize the past. Education has changed. Teachers are expected to not only instruct students but are accountable for their students' performances on standardized tests, accomodating muliple levels of instruction within the same classroom (IEP's); not to mention the multiple personal issues (products of the 21st century) that many students bring into the classroom. There probably were not too many teachers in the 50's that had to attend innervetion meetings for a students before school, work with a counselor to infiltrate a drug ring within their classroom, attend multiple IEP meetings in a week, and continue to be expected to perform at the same level as the smiling faced instructor of Wally and Beaver.

In my building we have 50 teachers. There are a handful of rotten ones (and most systems including mine do purge these individuals), a handful of awesome ones, and the rest of us who truly make a concerted effort to inspire our students on a daily basis.

As others have stated, teachers haven't changed, it is the society and educational system that has changed. The average career of a high school teacher is around six years. Burnout is incredible as the responsibilities far exceed the compensation. I have been teaching high school juniors and seniors for the last twelve years. I love my job as do most of my colleagues. I have tenure but am evaluated every three years. Tenure within most high school systems does not carry the same weight as in colleges/universities. The tenure system is used within my school mostly to establish seniorty amongst the staff in case reductions occur.

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Posted By: Kenneth A. Cohen

John S,

You crossed the line when you brought Miss Landers into the argument. She was perfect!

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Posted By: Steve

Well, those days are gone and there are too many obstacles in the way in trying to restore the Public School System back to the
way it was prior to the mid-1960's.

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////


That was around the same time we instituted liberalized education.


Steve

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Posted By: Rich Klein

While the Dow made a nice comeback -- both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 ended up down by a decent amount.

The Dow was boosted by a very strong JP Morgan performance and who can blame them -- they bought a property which a few months ago had a stock value of 50X what they paid last night. That would be like today being able to buy raw 49 Bowman High #s in ex or better for like $5 or so.

Getting back on financial subject.

As for teachers; both my parents were educators and my wife is a teacher. Like many other discussions, there is no right or wrong -- just a whole bunch of things in the middle

Regards
Rich

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Posted By: Ted Zanidakis

The Dow is the main index in this aspect of the market and it "survived" for another day. I fully appreciate the agony of "crashing"
stocks. Not too long ago my AT&T and LUCENT stocks were $80 apiece.....now AT&T is $35 and LUCENT is $2 (or $4). That's the
risks you take when you do not "diversify". Anyhow, the Stock Market will gradually recover....but, will the DOW reach 14K again ?
Perhaps, not for some time, as there always is a certain amount of nervousness in the Stock market during a national election year.
This was true in 1992 and in 2000, as we led up to the Prez. elections.

Teaching is a worthy profession and I applaud all who labor in it. However professionally one tries to carry out their task nowadays,
they are very limited by the bureaucracy that they work under. Most teachers are probably underpaid for what they have to put
up with, from the student's end and their management on the other end. I once taught, so I do have the background to know of
what I am speaking of.

Regards,
TED Z

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Posted By: Cat

Card values seem to be materially unaffected SO FAR....at least to the point of no downturn but my instinct is that card prices overall have been pretty flat in the last roughly 18 months.

I always believed that "dealers" propped up card values beyond market realities. But once dealer inventories failed to turnover then dealer money would get sunk into existing inventories and that money would no longer support certain bottom floors of card prices. I search on the "dealers" who sale on EBay and many are not moving much right now although I am not sure we have reached the dealer saturation point quite yet. The market sentiment as it pertains to cards still seems pretty upbeat. The last few auctions have had strong prices. I do see the overall sentiment changing a little though, so perhaps we will see a change in prices in the upcoming auctions. REA has a lot of very good stuff and Mastro is already bragging about their June auction. Will there be money abundant enough to chase these cards to healthy prices? We'll see.

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Posted By: boxingcardman

Great stuff will always sell, as will rarities. When I batten down the hatches I stop buying the run of the mill cards I can find any time and focus only on the difficult items I have been chasing for a long time. I'll skip the T206's I would like to own and focus on the difficult Exhibits instead. I figure I can always go back and fill in the easy cards but I might not see the tough stuff for some time, if at all.

Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

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Posted By: JimB

People sure like to hear themselves talk, even when they don't have much worth saying. The vast majority here, on both sides, seem incredibly uninformed.

But for me, the funniest of all was the claim that the media is to blame for the disaster that has been the Bush presidency. I agree that they have been complicit and should be roundly condemned for that, but to claim the media, and not the current adminsitration, are the primary reason our country's current failures domestically and abroad, is the height of narrow thinking.
JimB


Maybe the best advice here was to read Alexis de Tocqueville's Democracy in America. Thanks Brian. Democracy only works with an informed populace that has the ability to think critically. Thus, our problem.

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Posted By: Charlie Barokas

Jeff,

Do we still have a bet? I feel bad for those that panicked and sold yesterday am.

CB

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Posted By: Brian Weisner

Hi Jim,
Thanks.... I didn't think anyone was going to respond to my suggestion. I was going to suggest the Federalist Papers, but I figured most had read them by now. Be well Brian


PS Anyone who hasn't read Democracy in America should really pick up a copy...

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Yeah, Charlie, I throw in the towel! The market's response today has caused me to rethink my entire position. All is rosy, the subprime mortgage problems are gone and even Bear Stearns employees are buying their third and fourth homes today.

In all seriousness, I don't think today means anything long term -- which is why I mentioned to you previously that a one-week window was meaningnless.

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Posted By: Fred C

Jim,

"Democracy only works with an informed populace that has the ability to think critically"

So, our problem is:

We are not an informed populace?
We don't have the ability to think, critically?

The answer to the first question has got to be that there's just entirely TOO MUCH INFORMATION to process. I couldn't imagine trying to read and understand all of the different issues that surround us. That's why we vote in politicians. They are supposed to take their constituency into account when they make their decisions? About the only constiuents they listen to are the ones that line their pockets. Ok, that was a bit ignorant and not totally true.

Second point - I think that a lot of it boils down to people not thinking, let alone think critically. Could you imagine having people in power that are objective when they make decisions? Wow, what a concept. Where would we be today if we had objective thinkers in power rather than...

I think we need to redefine the meaning of democracy. Maybe make it autonomous. Have it become artificially intelligent and have it objectively make our decisions for us. Sounds like a good book to write. Maybe I can see if George Aldous Bradbury exists and ask that person to write the book.. now, would that book be a comedy or a tragedy?

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Posted By: Pennsylvania Ted

Hey guys, there is no way to predict the Stock Market.....Dow jumped +420 today. Do you recall the last time it jumped +420 ?
Yes, yes....just a week ago when Wall Street apparently reacted to Spitzer's demise. It's an election year, anything can happen.

Regarding the "sub-prime" problem, the latest numbers on foreclosures is 900,000. The normal average every year is 550,000 fore-
closures. When you compare these numbers with 100 MILLION to 150 MILLION active mortgages, the 900K is less than 1%. Is this
"crises" overblown, or what ? ?

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Posted By: Charlie Barokas

Jeff,

I stand by my predictions that the market was a "buy" Monday morning and not a "sell"...also that Financial stocks will be higher six Month's from Monday.

CB

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Posted By: Tom Boblitt

as the saying goes........I love 'ya man..........but what did Spitzer's demise have to do with the Street?

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Posted By: Tom Boblitt

Was Bear Stearns a buy on Friday after dropping 40-50% to the 30 range?

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Posted By: Rob D.

Citing a large, one-day advance (or decline) in the stock market as a sign of the economy's strength (or weakness) is akin to using an unseasonably cold (or hot) day in February as proof that global warming doesn't (or does) exist.

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Posted By: Pennsylvania Ted

My buddies in Wall Street told me that there was a sense of euphoria and it helped boost "buying" in the Market that day.
It was a secondary factor. I don't recall what was the primary factor to boost the Dow +419 pts. that day.

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Posted By: Dan Bretta

If all it takes is a sense of euphoria to make the market go up then someone needs to slip those traders some X just before the markets open.

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Posted By: Anthony S.

Dan,

If there's a publicly traded company that produces both pacifiers and Dr. Suess "Cat in the Hat" hats they'd make a killing under your scenario.

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Posted By: Fred C

News flash everyone -

THE FED CUT THE INTEREST RATE BY 3/4 of a point! The cut brings the rate to its lowest point since 2004 (about the time when real estate started to hit the peak).

Usually, there's a market increase when the fed cuts rates by large amounts such as this. That makes money really cheap. The key interest rate sits at 2.25%.

It will be interersting to see just how long the dow stays above 12K.

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Posted By: Charlie Barokas

Tom,

Friday was never apart of our discussion on Sunday. The discussion was about Monday morning....many board members suggested the world would come to an end this week in the stock market...I took the other side of that extreme pessimism. I stated the market would be up for the week. So far we are up 440 Dow points for the week.

CB

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

If I recall, Bear's CEO on Weds said that everything was peachy keen and rumors of their demise were absurd. By Friday they were kaput. I think the subprime mess has just begun with Bear's destruction -- and today was probably just a dead cat bounce.

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Posted By: Patrick McHugh

Today was a great day to sell the market at the close. The tsunami of forclosures has only just begun. The fed is doing anything to bail out the wall street boys but the fact is the average person can not afford to buy a house at todays prices. Home values need to fall another 25 percent. The only thing the rate cuts do for the average guy(like me) is make my grocery bill go up and 4 dollar gas is coming. Just wait for the spring home selling season there will be so many units on the market and no buyers. Market will probably finish the year down about 20 percent.

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Posted By: Tom Boblitt

I heard Cramer (Mad....not Seinfeld's) railing that you shouldn't take your money out of Bear Stearns. It was hilarious. From last week. Not a great call on that one, huh?

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Posted By: Dan Bretta

Hey, somebody slip Lichtman and McHugh some X. STAT.

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Posted By: John

I see what’s going on here Jeff is filling us with gloom and doom, then when were all down in the dumps he will snag up dozens if not hundreds of lots in REA for pennies on the dollar!

This Lichtman guy is one shrude cookie! But trust me folks I have it on good authority from buddies within my cock fighting circle this guy can’t be trusted!

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Posted By: Joe D.

I think you pegged it!

That Lichtman fella is up to shenannigans!

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Posted By: leon

I doubt the economy will have an effect on the homes of cockfight brethren....




.like I have said, and studies prove, animal cruelty is only one step away from child porn and molestation. Here is an excerpt from a study I found....

An even more disturbing fact is that there is a well recognized link between people who commit animal abuse and those who abuse children. A survey of pet-owning families with substantiated child abuse and neglect found that animals were abused in 88% of homes where child physical abuse was present. Eric Smith, a young 12-year old boy, strangled his neighbor's cat with a garden hose. A year later, at age 13, he murdered a 4-year old boy. Jeffery Dahmer and David Berkowitz both tortured and killed animals when they were children, and then went on to become well-known serial killers as adults. The evidence of the connections between animal and human abuse is hard to deny.

...I guess it takes all kinds....

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Posted By: Matt

Tom - Jon Stewart was having a good time with that Cramer sound byte.

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Posted By: John

And to think Joe; Jeff would have gotten away with it if it wasn’t for us…



Leon, that was you outside my house (sorry World Headquarters) this afternoon with a camera?

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Posted By: Fred C

Cramer is just great! He's always pushing something. In the recent past he was really pushing a telecomm company hard. The stock increased for a while (when he kept telling everyone buy, buy, buy) and now that stock is about 1/2 of where it was when he started pushing it really hard. Cramer's brilliant! Sometimes he's right and sometimes he's wrong. Kind of like Shaq throwing up free throws.

Cramer would make a great carnival barker.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Damn, you guys are on to me. Oh well. Did I mention that pork bellies are overpriced as well? (he said, hands rubbing together greedily)

Leon, I know I'm just a city slicker but I'm fairly certain that your trailer there is a single-wide. And yes, animal molesters usually grow up to be child molesters.

As for Cramer, if you took away the gains he generates in stocks by his flogging of the stock on TV -- and thereby inducing the viewers to drive the stock up -- he easily underperforms the S & P. In sum, a gorilla throwing darts at the stock table could pick as well as he does.

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Posted By: Anthony S.

For those who haven't seen the Jim Cramer clip...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3FVBKic5Ek

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Posted By: Fred C

Here's Cramer's response to his - don't sell Bear!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0Y2_LS5mHQ

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Posted By: Anonymous

Tom,

With all due respect, you are wrong again. Cramer was referring to investment accounts and or prime brokerage accounts held/domiciled at Bear Stearns. He was not advocating to Buy or hold the stock.

CB

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Posted By: Steve

Charley

Cramer's whole schtick is stocks.

His BS explanation was well after BS folded.

Steve

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Yeah, Charlie, I have to disagree with you on that one, too. Cramer was discussing the stock, not the investment accounts of Bear.

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Posted By: Fred C

If you watch the video you can see Cramer with a BS stock chart up in the back ground. Cramer was not talking about the other BS financial instruments. I'd be a little worried though because the whole reason BS started to fold was because (and this is my belief) they held too much in the way of those non-Fed backed mortgages (Fannie Mae junk). I'm sure they had some of those bonds tucked away in some of their other investment strategies.

The truly sad part is that there are a lot of employees of BS that held BS stock in their 401K plans. All of that seems to have evaporated into $2/share. Could you imagine working 25 years for a company, holding about 10,000 shares of BS stock valued at about $600,000 just recently and now you are holding about $20,000 in value of that same paper.

You can't tell me that somebody can't be held accountable for their fiduciary irresponsibility. Doesn't this sound a bit like World Comm or Enron a few years back? This is really sickening. I hope nobody on the board is getting hosed in this mess.

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Posted By: Charlie Barokas

Jeff,

I am not going to defend Jim Cramer but if you listen to the youtube he clearly is saying do not "take your money out of Bear Stearns". He never said do not sell the stock.

There are many issues currently but I think as it relates to the stock market much of those issues have been discounted.

Back to Cardboard...

CB

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Posted By: David Smith

To all,

The real Depression of 2008 or 2009 will come if John McCain is elected President and the Republicans goad him into going to war with Iran. THEN, you are going to have $150 to $200 dollar a barrel oil. You will have $5 and $6 dollar a gallon gasoline. Prices of goods that have to be transported will go through the roof. The US automakers will go bankrupt or close down because MOST of the vehicles they produce are gas guzzlers. Airlines will go out of business or merge so that there are only two or three carriers because fuel prices will be so high and very few people will be able to afford to fly.

Add on top of that China being pissed because higher oil prices raises their cost of producing goods and will slow their economy.

This is not even taking into consideration the human cost of going to war in Iran. I mean, if we are STILL in wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, then there is going to have to be a Draft reinstated to fulfill all the needs for soldiers.

David

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Charlie, when Cramer said "don't take your money out of Bear Stearns" he was referring to the stock. Never does Cramer during that give and take with callers refer to the viability of the investments of the stock; it's simply a stock picking round for him. During his explanation, Cramer looked like Barak Obama when he claimed he never knew that his pastor had said all those pleasent things about the USA.

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Posted By: McLOVIN

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Posted By: leon

Mclovin- Very true but you need to put your name out here....Please email me privately.....

Charlie- I have to disagree with you. This guy looks like a guy that is crawfishing and not exuding confidence in what he is saying. He's obviously grasping. I am sure the plethora of defense lawyers, Jeff included, can tell how guilty this guy is acting under questioning. Not even close imo.....guilty guilty guilty....He should have just said he made a mistake and is human and moved on. Everyone knows that most money IN an institution is insured...it's the stock that is most at risk. There would be no motive for him to tell folks to leave their money in the vaults if it's insured/protected. It's common sense....

edited to add....Jeff- is this what you had in mind?

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Posted By: Anonymous

FDIC insures bank accounts up to $100,000.
SIPC covers brokerage accounts up to $500,000.
Beyond that, you're on your own, except that SEC rule 15c-3 requires broker/dealers to segregate (keep separate) customer assets and other corporate assets.

In an insolvency, "customer claims" are a separate class of creditors and have a priority claim on "customer assets". Bear was somewhat different in that their broker/dealer operations are conducted in a separate corporate entity, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the parent. The parent is the dog, which got caught holding $30 billion of mortgage related CDO paper which will recover substantially less than par (some may be worthless even though it was rated AAA) versus a $10 billion tangible book value before the debacle (the same equity JP Morgan just bought for $300 million). If the Fed guarantees the recovery on the mortgage paper, Bernanke just handed Morgan $20-30 billion.

Cramer was responding to a question from a viewer. The key to understanding his answer is to make sure you understand the question he was responding to, but I can easily see how someone could infer from his answer that a holder of Bear stock shouldn't sell.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Damn, Leon, where did you find that picture????? Is Wonka over at your house?

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Posted By: Fred C

Leon, that's a great picture. That there's a picture of a lottery winners castle, if I ever saw one.

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Posted By: Fred C

Hey McLovin, did you like the movie?