The Depression of 2008

[Archive]

Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Just read a report on the internet that Bear Stearns will be bought out by JP Morgan Chase for less than $20 per share. It was at $50 before the market's open on Friday and $175 about a year ago. That's a lot of McMansions that just disappeared.

[Archive]

Posted By: LetsGoBucs

It will be interesting to see what the terms of the sale are....got a hunch that some sort of special loan provision from the Feds to protect agains Bear's mortgage book will be part of the package.

Even at $20, don't know of Morgan is getting a good deal unless they've got guaranteed backing on the mortgage book.

Washington Mutual may be next.....we'll see what the market does tomorrow.

[Archive]

Posted By: Kenneth A. Cohen

I have several close friend who are or were teachers. Though what informs my opinion is admittedly anecdotal, I can only conclude that public education's ills are primarily not the result of inadequate spending - but on inadequate parenting. Teachers complain of a lack of backing from their pupils' parents. Efforts to instill discipline are rebuffed with the parent taking the side of the child. When I was in school and ran afoul of the rules, the first thought I had was, "please don't call my father!" I gladly acepted any other punishment. I don't think I was alone in this sentiment. Without positive parental support and involvement, I believe that we could quadruple education spending and it won't make a bit of difference.

[Archive]

Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Tomorrow will be ugly beyond belief. Washington Mutual has about had it. I can think of at least one more major investment bank that I think will be toast before the fall.

[Archive]

Posted By: leon

I am in 100% agreement that our biggest issue in education, and dare I say America in general, is parenting. That is where our children need to be taught morals and then reinforced in school and church/synagogue/mosque or what have you. It starts at home.

Also, to Jim in response to your post above. I have to politely disagree when you say that the size of the classroom (# of students) doesn't make a difference. From viewing it as a student when younger, and as a parent now, I believe smaller classes are conducive to a better education through more personalized attention. Besides firmly believing that through observation it seems like common sense...best regards

[Archive]

Posted By: Bob C

Bruce,
Right or wrong, you have a flair for the obvious.
This hobby is, for the most part, financed by discretionary income.
Due to the nexus of failing/consolidating banks, oversupply of housing, $1,000 gold, $4.00+ gasoline, rising foreclosures, higher food prices and mounting job losses, discretionary income is hit hard for many people.
The only possible positive glimmer is the Fed keeping interest rates low, but that could only be throwing gasoline on the fire, putting off the fallout of the credit debacle until another day. And that day will come to be sure. And those $600 checks we are all waiting for? Not the answer to a maiden's call under these cirumstances. What does that buy you, really?
My younger brother used to own a highly successful custom furniture manufacturing company. Each piece was hand made to order.
He once told me the following and I will substitute one word:
“When times get tough, you can’t eat sportscards”
Interesting times we are in.

[Archive]

Posted By: Solomon Cramer

OMG...I'm a layman at best on values, but it's mindboggling to think this 85 year old bank was trading at $70 on Monday and $150+ last year...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120569598608739825.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news

[Archive]

Posted By: Jason L

saving up to buy Bear Stearns - the entire Company

JPMorgan beat me to it within 3 days.

[Archive]

Posted By: LetsGoBucs

That values the firm at $250 ~ Million. Heck their building is worth more than that.

The fed will also kick in 30 Billion to Morgan to protect against the mortgage book they inherit.

It will be interesting, if 30 Billion will cover the exposure then JP Morgan stock is dirt cheap....if not we could be in for a whole lot of hurt.

[Archive]

Posted By: Jeff Mohler

I guess that Chinese investment of $1 billion in Bear last fall is essentially vaporized. I wonder if the sovereign investment money will dry up for the other big banks/investment houses?

[Archive]

Posted By: boxingcardman

You don't need a study to prove that smaller classes work. The free market that you bootstrapping types are so fond of citing to justify not spending more money on anything that might force you to (horror of horrors) pay more taxes has already proven it. If those big class public institutions generated the same results as small class private schools why would all of us smart, wealthy parents waste hundreds of thousands of dollars a year on private schools? And why would those of us who are making policy in those schools not buy a few more desks and jack up enrollment 50%? Because we know it degrades the result.

I love the raw spending across nationalities argument because it is such a crock of crap. You cannot compare the raw spending here with the raw spending in other countries unless you adjust for social differences reflected in how the costs are accounted for. Blaming the unions is a typical canard that misleadingly ignores differences between countries. Your point is that the countries that are kicking our asses spend less per pupil, yet you ignore the fact that many have far stronger union presences than we do. I would suggest that a good deal of the explanation for that number lies in the fact that a big chunk of the cost of union workers here is the benefits package that is a public cost in other countries. Health care, for example, is a benefit here that the workers have to fight to get but is a publicly funded right in every civilized country. Add that to the cost of schooling in those countries and take it away from the costs columns for the unions here. Ditto a strong retirement system and a strong social safety net. These items add thousands of dollars in costs to every car we turn out by the calculations of the automobile companies themselves; don't you think the same is true of education costs?

Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

[Archive]

Posted By: Mark Evans

Perhaps Democratic ticket will be Gore & Obama. Superdelegates, being career politicians and thus spineless, might choose to punt in order to avoid alienating half the party. Enter former nominee who most Dems believe deserved to win in 2000 and who has since picked up the Nobel peace prize to reel in the majority of independents. Beats McCain like a bad step-child.

I can only afford $10 one time, my best chance to pick up a CJ Jackson sad to say. Hope to see all at the National. Mark

[Archive]

Posted By: Frank Wakefield

Well the Fed's interest cut seems to bode ill for the markets.

And it seems to me that whether it is Hillary or Obama, a party nomination for either will fractionalize the party so that neither could defeat McCain. I hope he finds an expeditious and affordable way out of Iraq. There is some merit to being in Afghanistan; but not Iraq.

[Archive]

Posted By: LetsGoBucs

I love the raw spending across nationalities argument because it is such a crock of crap. You cannot compare the raw spending here with the raw spending in other countries unless you adjust for social differences reflected in how the costs are accounted for.
----------------

I believe that the OECD does just that and thats one of its purposes and they do it for a number of areas. Since it is a multigovernment agency funded by member states I don't think it has much of a political axe to grind. I would freely admit I didn't go through the methodology used for their bi-yearly study.

While there are social differences that cuts both ways. Yes there are more unions across all industries in Europe, but they have also learned how to handle them better. In Europe, it is very difficult (and costly) to eliminate a group or location of workers - and I know this firsthand. But it is very easy to remove a low performer. Our teacher's union has made it virtually impossible to simply fire a poor teacher and they fight any efforts to put in place mechanisms to even identify poor teachers. I'm not a union hater, but the teacher's union is one that I have lost respect for over the years.

[Archive]

Posted By: Cy

I am a professor at a Community College in Virginia and I am amazed at how some people here and out side the board view education. Someone brought up the point that a religious schools out score public schools by a wide margin. The should score better. My college has an open door policy. That means that anyone can come to my school and we have to teach him. Could this school compete with Harvard with its entrance requirements? That is the same thing with religious schools vs public schools.

The parents of the children that are going to religious schools are paying a hefty tuition to send them there. Don't you think that these parents will have more hands on help with their children since their investment is higher? Of course they will. Piggybacking on Ken Cohen's remark, having parents involved does absolutely wonders for the child's educational development. Plus, in many cases, these private schools are getting the cream of the crop to work with, rather than a grand mixture of abilities. So this comparison is truly apples and oranges.

I have had an evil thought that Warren Buffet or Bill Gates would pay the tuition of twenty inner-city troubled youths and send them to one of these private schools so that half of the class is made up from these children. Then let's see what happens to the dynamics. Plus in a public school you cannot kick a student out for misbehaving as you can in a private school. So to reflect on my point, if the private school doesn't do better with their grades, then something is drastically wrong with the private school.

The other point that is brought up is that the teacher unions are telling us what to do about education. Who should we ask, coal miners? And before people start saying that teachers have their own agenda to support themselves, I will counter that you don't know many teachers. Pre-college teachers work hard and usually are underpaid and they still strive to enhance the lives of their students. Not allowing major input from teachers in the educational system would be absurd. These teachers are constantly striving to better themselves so that they can help the students. And before I get bombarded again with people trying to contradict me, let me ask you this. If the government gave $100 million to teachers to better the schools or to oil men to better oil, in which case do you think the money would be spent more wisely to help the public? Teachers on a whole work hard to do the best that they can to help their students. If you truly disagree with that, then I will wager that you don't know too many teachers.

Sincerely,

Cy

[Archive]

Posted By: Joe D.

so out of the kindness of my heart.... I will be trading cash for Wagners.

c'mon Leon - you know which one I want!

[Archive]

Posted By: Frank Wakefield

I agree with most of what Cy says, it is an unfair comparison.

Still, tenure is one problem with our public schools. That needs to be reworked so that the problem of ineffective teachers can be addressed.

I taught college once, it is 'outscore', not 'out score'.

[Archive]

Posted By: Frank Wakefield

No posts on this in close to an hour...

You guys must be watching the market. I went to bed having watched the CNBC folks in Australia and India, where markets were down, and the openings in Germany and England weren't looking very promising either.

It is a good time to buy baseball cards if you're paying for them with Euro's. Anyone ever list an eBay auction in a foreign currency, ie on other than their own?

[Archive]

Posted By: Steve

Plus in a public school you cannot kick a student out for misbehaving as you can in a private school.


Oh yes they can.


Steve

[Archive]

Posted By: Dave Hornish

Actually, I don't think there is any evidence religious based schools do better than public schools K-12. I believe the results have been remarkably similar as has been reported in a number of non-biased studies. If you compare all private schools to all public schools then I believe private institutions have the edge. There is also the issue in religious schools of science education, which can vary greatly depending upon the worldview of the institution as a number of them do not teach evolution.

Here's a question: Is the No Child Left Behind act helping or hindering education in this country?

[Archive]

Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

You've got to give Jim Cranell credit -- while Lehman Bros tumbles to a 5 year low and questions are raised about its ability to continue in existence, all of his comrades probably have zillions in Lehman stock. Jim's got a PSA slabbed cushion! And the guys at Lehman probably thought he was crazy!

[Archive]

Posted By: Paul Moss

Lehman had better survive otherwise I might be minus a future son-in-law

[Archive]

Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Paul, think of the bright side -- you'll have the opportunity to spend a lot more time with him!

[Archive]

Posted By: andy

These unfair comparisons are why my state, Iowa, ranks high in sat testing. The schools around here use the act for testing so only students wanting to go to a coast school are taking the sat at all and creating an unrealistic curve in sat testing scores.

[Archive]

Posted By: JimCrandell

Paul,

I can't marry your daughter--I'm already happily married. Sorry if I might have misled you.

Jeff,

My net worth has taken a huge hit these past few days--keepin' my fingers crossed--lucky I have my AAA-rated PSA-card collection to fall back on.

[Archive]

Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Jim, for another $5 per slab PSA will make it a AAAA-rated collection.

[Archive]

Posted By: CoreyRS.hanus

I happen to agree with much of what Cy says, with one important exception. That pertains to the teachers' unions. IMO, the single worst thing to ever happen to public education is the tenure system. PERIOD!!! And I say that not only from sending three kids to public school, but also from knowledge of the inner workings of the system. My wife you see for many years was a tenured middle school teacher. She received tenure when she was in her middle 20's. What that meant is short of some EGREGIOUS transgression, she had a job for life, regardless how much she cared about her students or regardless how much effort she put into her classes.

I always thought the concept of tenure in education originated out of concern that professors should not be punished for their views and indeed should be encouraged to think and publish creatively and without fear of retribution for out-of-the-box ideas. After all, weren't some of the greatest ideas in human history greeted as little more than heresy when they were first announced? But what the dickens does this have to do with elementary, middle school and even high school education? How many other efficient professions have a system where as a practical matter a person is awarded with a job for life after 2-3 years of work? Such a system makes mockery of the whole concept of human incentive--to advance you have to continually perform and prove you belong. Any system that functions on a different concept is doomed to inefficiency and complacency. I believe there are a myriad of examples in the socialist and communist world to attest this view.

As/more important than smaller class size or parental involvement with their kids' education is that in private schools (and again I say this from experience because I went to one) (and I imagine too with parochial schools though not having gone to one I can't speak from experience), is that if a teacher doesn't perform, he/she is out on his/her ass. Parents whose tuition dollars fund the majority of the school budget will insist on nothing less.

My views about this matter are hardly an extreme opinion. Many others feel the way I do. In fact, what do you think led to the creation of the charter school concept? And why do you think the teachers' unions regard themselves in a life or death struggle with them? Charter schools too are predicated on the notion of accountability for their teachers; become lax or mess up and you're out. No wonder the teachers' unions feel so threatened.

I am at the point that with at least one of my kids we are seriously considering sending her to private school. It is not because of smaller class size, or that we have some great desire to spend our hard-earned dollars on tuition, or that we do not go to a good school district. But simply because we are getting fed up with too many teachers who simply don't care, have no economic motivation to care, and frankly who have no business being in the profession of educating our children.

[Archive]

Posted By: JimCrandell

Jeff,

I am still losing some of these 55 psa 8s at very high numbers. I am down to 18 upgrades of PSA 7s I think and occasionally I win one at 6-700 but I am losing some--most recently Hal Smith(I think) at over $1,500.

As long as my average conversion of 8s to 8.5 or 9 exceeds Vic Davalillo's career batting average I will be happy--if it gets down near the Mendoza line then not so much.

[Archive]

Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Jim, at the very least you could have sponsored the Vic Davalillo page on baseball-reference.com. And throw Mario Mendoza a bone while you're at it as well!

[Archive]

Posted By: David Atkatz

"I think at the end of the day the swing voters will make their decision on two factors--1)The economy which may be improving or may be in the doldrums and 2)Who is best suited to be commander in chief--on this it is no contest--Obama cannot hold a candle to McCain."

Why?
Because he was a fighter pilot and spent years in a bamboo cage?
His decisions vis a vis Iraq have certainly shown poor judgment.

[Archive]

Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

David, McCain, right or wrong, has been given credit for the 'surge' -- and the results of the surge have allowed for a higher approval rating of the war in a very long time. And unlike Obama, McCain doesn't have to explain why until Friday he had in his campaign a racist, hate-mongerer who married him, baptized his kids, spent 20 years as his preacher, was a trusted advisor and recipient of over $20K in funds, and who provided the title of his book. I think a lot of the moderate whites who had given Obama the benefit of the doubt are seriously re-thinking their support, especially after Obama claimed he didn't know about the lion-share of Rev. Wright's statements even though the rest of the world apparently did.

[Archive]

Posted By: leon

Rev.Wright= racist idiot= bad Obama...... wait until it's proven that Obama was in the church audience when he said he wasn't.....regardless, to approve of what that idiot said, at any time, is agreeing with pure racisim....This will hurt Obama's ratings..... He can't run the other way fast enough.....

[Archive]

Posted By: Anonymous

Get a wooden closepin, unslab your cards and place them in the
spokes of your mountain bike. Cause that's about how valuable
cards are going to be for the next 8 years.

matt m

[Archive]

Posted By: Ted Zanidakis

Once again I agree with you, this time regarding public education......

I went to NJ public schools back in the Paleolithic era (1940's to late '50s) and we had class sizes of 30-40 students. The course
curricula was tough, we had very few failing students, and the drop-out rate was virtually zero. I recently attended my 50th HS
reunion and was delightfully surprised to see how many of my classmates were College educated and very successful. I am sure
this example is typical of many public schools back then in this country. Here are the prime reasons that I see for this success.

Stable families with a Father and a Mother

Higher quality Teachers than we have nowadays (no tenure)

Solid "Reading-wRriting-and-aRithmetic"....and, none of the "politically-left (or correct)" B-S being taught

Tough School Administrators......(lawyers, psychologists, union officials, etc. need not apply)

And, as a consequence, significantly less cost per student


Well, those days are gone and there are too many obstacles in the way in trying to restore the Public School System back to the
way it was prior to the mid-1960's. If we could, the US will be able to reduce the need to hire Doctors, Engineers, Mathematicians,
and Scientists from other countries. The "out-sourcing" of these Hi-Tech jobs has become necessary in recent years, because our
education systems (K-12 and College) are sorely lacking. Yet, the same people who are in these education systems are the ones
who are most critical of this "out-sourcing"......it's a vicious cycle.

COREY

My Grandson, Ron, was struggling in one of the better known public HS system's in Maine. His pre-HS grades were excellent; there-
fore, Ron's HS performance was puzzling. So, my daughter paid $30K/year and transferred him to a Private school in Lake Placid, NY
for his junior and senior years. Ron graduated with a B+ average, and is doing great at the Univ. of Maine.

T-Rex TED

[Archive]

Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Ted, I agree with all your comments. I think the problem today is not so much the difference in schools from back then but the differnece in society and family structure.

[Archive]

Posted By: Fred C

Concur -

How many stay at home moms are there these days?

[Archive]

Posted By: leon

When I got married (13 yrs ago tomorrow...please don't let me forget) one vow I had was to have my wife be a stay at home mom. So far we have been able to do that. We moved to an area where the classes are very small relative to other surrounding ISD's. Up until this year (5th grade) my little girl had less than 20 students in each class. The one 2 edged sword we have is that we are not racially diverse. There are about 550 students in her elementary and 1-2 black (or African American...whatever is politically correct) students. We have quite a few Hispanics but my little girl fails to understand how racially diverse America, let alone the world, really is....Sure, she reads about it but she doesn't live it so I am not sure she totally understands it.....We hope to keep her a child as long as we can. The other day my wife told me that my little girl's best friend, and class mate, had started her period.....I put my hands over my ears and went the other way.....My little girl won't be little forever....too bad.....sorry for the mumbling...I kind of got off track.......OK now....remember to do whatever you can to get the best cards and if you have to kill to get them then by all means do it. It's all about winning and who cares what it takes to get there!!!! (there, that was better)

[Archive]

Posted By: Ted Zanidakis

Yes, society and the family structure in America is very different than the 1950's. But, I strongly disagree with your comment:
"I think the problem today is not so much the difference in schools from back then"

1st....the level of mathematics instruction was much better and we were heavy into problem-solving. At a HS level, we had
to compose some serious term papers. Most of us were in strong competition to attain high grades; and, this was appreciated
by having High Honor awards. None of this "let's not hurt the dear darling's self-esteem" by eliminating such awards.

2nd....the class atmosphere was tolerant of an ethnic and religious mix. In Elizabeth (NJ) we had a veritable melting pot......
Irish, Germans, Poles, Jews, Italians, Blacks, Asians, Puerto Ricans, Cubans and we all respected each others views and we
got along just great. Every Christmas everybody participated in the school Pageant. We not only had trips to the NY Museums,
but trips to Yankee Stadium and the Polo Grounds. Now, many public schools across the country are eliminating their BaseBall
programs. Replacing them with that dumb Euro-sport, Soccer.

I could go on and on and on.....but, I'll spare you the rest.


Hope you are enjoying the Roller Coaster ride today......

DOW

10 AM.... -180

11 AM.... +44

2 PM...... -82

4 PM......+21

You, gotta LOVE the resiliency of the American economy.....don't ever sell it short.....think OPTIMISTIC.

TED Z

[Archive]

Posted By: Joe Drouillard

Hello Everyone,

I'm sorry, but I take exception to all of the teacher bashing in this thread. Teachers, like parents, policemen, and politicians, get a bad rap in the media. The media only reports the bad and never the good.

Ten years ago I left the business world after twenty-three years to become a high school English teacher. I did so to make a difference in the lives of young people. I expected to find a lot of apathy at school, but I can honestly say that all of the teachers that I've worked with work hard and sincerely care about students.

In addition, most students, contrary to popular oppinion, really want to learn. Yes, there are many changes in young people today. They have more distractions, they often come from broken homes, and they are influenced by a media that stresses the immediate gratification of desires. Still, when I'm with them it makes me smile to see how curious they are, how intelligent, how full of life. I feel proud of the job that I do. I believe we are educating kids to be future leaders.


Joe

[Archive]

Posted By: Dan Bretta

I personally abhor all organized religions as I think they are more divisive than anything else, and I'm perfectly capable of thinking for myself, but if you think Obama's guy is any worse than James Dobson advising GW Bush you're wrong and you should read this interesting article from one of the men who created the religious right.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/frank-schaeffer/obamas-minister-committe_b_91774.html

[Archive]

Posted By: leon

I sure hope you aren't defending Obama's idiot of a friend.....just because there is another idiot doesn't make that one ok.....He's a racist idiot...end of discussion.....best regards

[Archive]

Posted By: CoreyRS.hanus

Joe,

I agree that there are many excellent tenured teachers in public education, teachers whose main motivation is not to pick up a pay check but to make a difference in children's lives. But the flip side is that there are also a number of teachers who teach with a fraction of the enthusiasm they originally had. Teachers are human like all of us and take away the need to continually prove your worth and you become complacent. Not all react this way, I agree, but too many do. What's broken then is the system, not the participants in it. I would think that those motivated teachers who teach because they care about their students are exactly those who would care least about and be least threatened by a change in the tenure system. What would be so terrible if tenure is granted for only, say, ten years, after which a teacher has to earn it again to stay on for another ten years? Yes people will say that tenure may be subsequently denied not because of poor job performance but in order to bring in younger less expensive teachers. And I'm not saying there is not merit to those concerns and that perhaps safeguards will need to be put in to guard against that. But the alternative would be a continuation of the current system, which I vigorously opine brings more abuse and has more pitfalls than something along the lines of what I described.

[Archive]

Posted By: Dave Hornish

Dan:

I could not agree more; excellent article. I have been making this point about W and many other so called Republicans in various conversations even before the Obama controversy came up. The hijacking of the Republican party by the religious right is one of the great outrages of our time.

[Archive]

Posted By: James Feagin

Dan,

There are many churches that do not advocate a "Christian Right" agenda from the pulpit. My Christian faith has stated repeatedly that church is not to be used as a political forum, refuses to endorse any candidate, and while advocating that we vote, never has told us who to vote for. I think to lump all, or even the majority of American Christianity with the "religious right" is dangerous.

[Archive]

Posted By: James Feagin

Dave---Agreed

The "religious/evangelical right" has also hijacked the image of the Christian faith as well.

[Archive]

Posted By: Dan Bretta

Leon, read my post carefully....I abhor all organized religion. I think Obama's guy is a flipping idiot. As bad as James Dobson, Pat Robertson and the rest of the haters. I can just sense the hypocrisy going on right now with those tearing down Obama's relationship with his minister and having no problem with a guy like James Dobson advising the current president. I kind of like the separation of church and state idea....today's politicians have been eroding that line for decades now and it needs to stop. Obama should have kicked this guy to the curb 20 years ago if he was preaching that hatred back then.

[Archive]

Posted By: Dave Hornish

James:

Agree on the latter point as well. Truly a sad situation all around.

[Archive]

Posted By: Dan Bretta

James, I am sorry and you're right I should not lump all of them together...I attended a Lutheran church when I was younger and I don't recall any intolerance at all. When I went to college I got involved with the Baptist Student Union and I won't go into details here, but that's as close to being a cult as it comes, and their intolerance was unbelievable.

[Archive]

Posted By: James Feagin

Dan,

My perspective is different as a devout Christian and former missionary. The "Christian Coalition" does not like my faith and members of some of their churches went out of their way to intimidate, harass and even threaten violence on us. I will not judge the beautiful tenants of faith that many organized Christian churches teach on the few maladjusted folks who seek to enforce their way of life.

[Archive]

Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Dan, I agree with much of what you say. I suppose the part that just makes me sick about Obama -- a guy that I have publicly praised -- is that he has the gall to claim he was unaware of most of the insane rantings of his preacher. Obama should have just told the truth and apologized for putting a maniac like this in his campagin as one of his most trusted advisors. I was deeply disappointed in finding out that Obama is just like every other politician after seeing his BS spin on TV.