Where are collectible values headed?

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Posted By: Dave S

With the current financial crisis in full-swing, do you think the value of sports collectibles is headed up or down?

There seems to be a race to 'safe havens' like treasuries and low risk investments as the equities outlook is getting bleaker by the day.

Where would you put your money? Into tangible assets like vintage baseball cards, or low yield/low risk financial instruments?

Or, are the prices of cards too high right now, and due for a correction as well?

ds

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Posted By: jay wolt

Quality & desirable items will rise, they always do.
And as far as where to put your $ for investments.
Many who buy cards do it for the hobby not for
financial gain to make a quick flip. So some would
relish prices going down, so they can complete their
sets on the cheap.

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Posted By: barrysloate

I agree with Jay. There seems to be no end to the money being spent on quality high end collectibles. Did anyone see that an E93 Wagner in PSA 9 sold over the weekend for 186K?

But many of the casual collectors who fueled a large part of this hobby may have to, by necessity, drop out. I am seeing some of that already. As a result, the collector grade market (Gd, VG, VG-EX) is soft.

It's not quite as linear as that, however, as there is also volatility and unpredictability in the market.

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Posted By: steve

I was seriously interested in a recent T206 Walter Johnson portrait PSA 6 - put in a solid bid (so I thought) - then was blown away later in the bidding with the card ending at $3,600. - WOW !

Very healthy prices for good stuff! If no go in the stock market, folks look elsewhere for investments - like good old T206 HOFers - yeah baby !

steve

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Posted By: JimB

Barry,
That E93 Wagner went for 218.5k with the juice.
JimB

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Posted By: leon

The market for cards in the lower to mid grades is soft and has been for the last year or so.

Like it or not I feel there are still a lot of people that would rather put their investment dollars in cards than say a blue chip stock like Lehman Bros or Fannie Mae/Mac....or one of those other sound investments....The best and more rare items are still going up....

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Posted By: barrysloate

Jim- I was thinking I may have missed the BP. Did you see it got 77 bids? I guess you have no problem owning the #1 set!

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Posted By: Dan Bretta

I have no idea where they're headed, but something tells me that the smartest man working for that company that shall not be named in this chatroom is a PSA Hall of Famer.

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Posted By: Bruce Dorskind

As many of you will recall,, we predicted a major economic collapse on a post in
mid 2007. We believe that the next two years will be far more difficult than 2008.
There is at least a 10-15% chance that we will migrate from a deep recession
into a worldwide depression. One that will end- as most depressions do, when there
is a major international conflict- i.e. Russia, Iran, China and Korea and perhaps,
our the enemy who is most under-estimated, Mr. Chavez.

Competition for water, minerals, land, food will dwarf competition for oil. We don't believe
the robust growth of China and India and can be supported without great sacrifice on the part of
Europe and Asia...and even, perhaps, North America.

Watch for the US to becoming increasingly isolationist. We will do all that we can to become
energy self sufficient and strengthen our currency, protect our natural resources and close
our borders. We will have no choice but to act in this fashion.

The economic downturn, which is only just beginning, will certainly have a vast impact on
the collectibles market. However, the very rare, ultra expensive and legendary items- i.e.
a 1952 PSA 9 Mickey Mantle card will continue to soar in price. Less than 1% of the collectors
buy the $25,000+ items and most of them have enough cash and are protected in many different
ways. Like the tycoons whose wealth grew during the 1930's, today's super rich will continue
to get richer.... when they want something money will not be an object. The Memory Lane
auction price for the Wagner E 93 and Four Hits of Mutrie are but two examples.

Those who collect mid-grade cards from classic sets like T-206 or R-319 are hopefully doing so
for enjoyment purposes only. Prices will fall 25% in the next 24 months.


Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

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Posted By: barrysloate

Bruce- interesting post and awfully frightening, because you may be right.

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Posted By: Jimmy

I agree with Leon the lower or mid-grade items are very soft right now. The high end items still are doing well. The same can be send across the hobby, not just cards. I am still investing, but have been saving more the past year as well. I do believe values for pre-war items are still very marketable, and will always have the consistency the other markets do not. The values always tend to come back in some form or another.

Jimmy

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Posted By: davidcycleback

One thing about collecting quality baseball memorabilia is that collectors have always been collectors-- they collected when they eight year olds on $1 allowance and millionaires, poor college kid and comfortable retiree. There can be an effect on the amount of money entering the market, but there will always been people who actively collect baseball memorabilia no matter what their income or the economy. If you have quality memorabilia, there will be people who want it.

Also, that your great grandfather and you collect the same T206s, Walter Johnson autographs and White Sox Pennants illustrates that collecting baseball memorabilia as fragile fad was disproven about 90 years ago. A collector today and a fan who died at the age of 75 in 1915 could sit with each other (with help of Dr Who time machine, of course) and have a great time talking to each about the same exact material and subjects-- tobacco cards, through the mail autographs, cabinet photos, Ty Cobb. This says a lot about the strength and timelessness of the hobby.

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Posted By: Frank Wakefield

Up. Except for the new refractor stuff...

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Posted By: boxingcardman

Card collecting has been on the rise for nearly my entire life, suffering through the Reagan recession, the Bush I recession, and now this series of events. Every time the predictions have been dire. Every time they have been wrong. I am a heck of a lot more comfortable holding nice T cards for the long term than many of the "blue chip" companies out there.

Bruce's autarchic scenario might have been realistic 60 years ago when we actually made stuff and the rest of the world was in ruins but is basically the stuff of bad millennial fiction today. We can't disengage from the world trade structure because we don't have the factories any more, and even if we did, we don't have the cheap labor to staff them, especially if you close the Mexican border. We import over 90% of our shoes, for example.

And war with Venezuela? Puh-leeze; pull the other leg and see if it plays "Jingle Bells." Venezuela remains a prime oil trading partner with the USA and hasn't the capacity or the reason to attack us. What it has done and will continue to do is pull out of the Washington Consensus on world trade. Plus, we should never go to war with countries that supply HOF caliber shortstops.

Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

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Posted By: Cobby33

"As many of you will recall,, we predicted a major economic collapse on a post in mid 2007."

I would imagine you are all very pleased with yourselves as of late.