ratio of psa 8 graded t206 cards to ungraded cards that would grade 8 or better?

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Posted By: doug

If for example there is a t206 card, say a common, that has 3 examples graded PSA 8 or better, how many out there are ungraded but would at least grade 8 or better? Im guessing maybe 8-1 ratio? Is this too high or too low? In otherwords, I wonder what percentage of high grade T 206 cards have been encapsulated and professionally graded already? I cant believe it would be more than 25%, but i could be wrong. Unless you are getting ready to sell your cards, Im guessing a lot of collectors dont have a pressing reason to spend alot of money to get them graded.

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Posted By: barrysloate

I think a pretty high percentage of high grade T206's have already been graded. There is such an incentive to do so that I would guess most are already entombed.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Probably 80% or more of the cards that would graded PSA 8 or SGC 88 are already graded. Most cards that collectors think are nmt-mt are really not.

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Posted By: peter chao

Doug,

Why do you believe it's less than 25% that have been graded?

I tend to agree with you because serious collectors are generally reclusive and still think that grading is a fad that will go away.

The smiley face is for those that think grading is the wave of the future.

Peter C.

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Posted By: barrysloate

I would agree with Jim's numbers, although it's just a gut feeling. I have no data.

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Posted By: E, Daniel

I'll go 65%-75% already slabbed.
Many will own cards they themselves believe are nrmt-mt (and may well be based on 'old school' criteria), but under the fairly exacting standards of the big 3 grading companies few would break a 7.

It's outta here!
Go Rockies, Go Cubs.


Daniel

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Posted By: JimB

I agree with Jim C. There may be a few more that come out of old collections, but I doubt there are many more out there.
JimB

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Posted By: peter chao

If there are reclusive serious collectors out there with high grade collections, how would you find out about their collections? Unless you find out about their collections it would be difficult to calculate percentages.

Peter C.

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Posted By: ItsOnlyGil

Ask Leon to put up a new poll question for those reclusive serious collectors (many of whiom do not have a computer) and tell them to identify how many PSA8 cards they have ... for those of them who have heard of PSA.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Peter,

I know all of the reclusive(even the super-reclusive)collectors and they have all shown me their T206s. Some of them you have to go the corners of the country or even outside the country to find. One was even in a cave. Sadly most of their T206s are not 8s--but a few are leading to my calculation of 83.623%.

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Posted By: Matt

If a card exists in a collection where no one can see it and no one knows about it, does it really exist?

(if a tree falls in the forest...)

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Posted By: barrysloate

Jim- there's a guy living in a cave with high grade T206's? That's fascinating!

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Barry,

No-- his were all low-mid grade--and I thought a lot of his cards were suspicious.

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Posted By: Ted Zanidakis

The cave man is Osama Bin Laden.....we hear he has lots of $$, so he can afford the best.

And, with plastic being an oil derivative, he has the best plastic holders money can buy.

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Posted By: Jason L

That sounds like a perfect scenario/backdrop for a scene in a Monty Python movie of some sort...or at least a Saturday Night Live skit

And I never thought of it that way: Graded card enthusiasts are really just feeding Big Oil through their appetite for resin-based holders? brilliant!

Perhaps the Geico Cavemen are purveyors of high grade vintage tobacco cards?

there's no end to it!

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Posted By: MVSNYC

i agree with Jim's number...80% graded...

even if people have what they consider to be a NM-MT card, it would really probably grade NM 7...

i would imagine (just my opinion), super high-grade cards rarely exist raw, because of the fact that they are raw, they have been handled too much...obviously the encapsulation will protect the cards...if you put a card in and out of a top loader a few times, the corners and edges have a high chance of getting damages, and the NM-MT card just became a EX-MT card...

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Posted By: peter chao

Guys,

Another thing to keep in mind is that we all have a bias towards there being a limited number of high grade vintage cards. Like many of you I've spent quite a bit of money on PSA 8s, 9s and 10s, so certainly we would like to think that there's a very small no. unslabbed.

Peter C.

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Posted By: barrysloate

A cave has a lot of humidity, and not a good environment for baseball cards!

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Posted By: barrysloate

Michael- in the old days high grade cards were protected in screwdown lucite holders...we had the same idea, just didn't have those labels and holograms.

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Posted By: T206Collector

...the height of raw card collecting was 1987 (or thereabouts), and most of the people who collected mint raw pre-war cards started at that time, then there is probably going to be some amount of influx when those people turn them over upon retirement or, sadly, death. Lets say they were, on average, 40 in 1987. Then I would guess between now and the next 20 years, we will see a meaningful influx over this period. But in 20 years from now, I would guess the number of ungraded raw mint pre-war would be quite low.

In short, the time to invest in pop charts and graded cards with more certainty about the populations would be in 20 years from now.

These are based on guesses and unproveable theories. But this is how I have always thought about such issues.

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Posted By: MVSNYC

Barry- i collected before PSA came about...i have hundreds of those screw-down lucite holders, so i know all about them...

but i can tell you this...i had plenty of T206 cards in those holders that i thought were NM-MT...and when they came back from PSA, boy was i dissapointed (5's & 6's, maybe one or two 7's...and NO 8's)...

i think that speaks volumes.

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Posted By: barrysloate

I agree- in the old days we graded cards with a different standard. If it looked near mint at arm's length we called it near mint. Today there are objective standards (which are actually extremely subjective) that relagate a lot of these so-called near mint cards to the mid-grade level. Everyone has gone through the disappointment of sending old time collections in to be slabbed, only to receive grades well below their expectations.

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Posted By: peter chao

I'll agree with that. But the same type of bias works when we are purchasing high grade cards. The seller tells us there's a limited number in PSA 8, so we believe him and make the purchase. Of course, the auction house wouldn't exaggerate...or would they?

Peter C.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Well Peter, those numbers are actually documented in the pop report. And while there are some inaccuracies due to resubmissions, you can't call something a "pop 3" if PSA shows that 8 examples were graded.

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Posted By: peter chao

Your right Barry, I'm really talking about hype like this is rare, or one of a kind etc. Also, the fact that you are paying a lot of money for a high grade card, I would think that would bias people towards thinking there really couldn't be that many unslabbed high grade cards out there.

Peter C.

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Posted By: peter chao

It would take a lot of work, but one way of approaching the problem would be obtaining data from grading companies on the number of PSA 8s and higher they graded in a particular year. Let's say this is done for a 10 year period, then you look at whether there's an upward trend to the total no. in each year or whether there was a downward trend.

If 75% of the cards have already been slabbed, then there should definitely be a downward trend.

Peter C.

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Posted By: Frank Wakefield

Seems to me that folks who collect graded T206s, who like graded T206s, think a high percentage of near mint T206 cards must be graded. Why wouldn't they be?


However, lots of folks have nice cards who just collect cards, many of whom have been collecting for years. I've gotten cards graded to sell. I've yet to get a card graded to keep. I'm not alone in that thinking. I'm not the only person who breaks out a graded card to put it in the collection. So believe it or not, there are lots of seasoned collectors who collect the white border tobacco cards (call them T206s if you like), who have some nice cards that are not graded. They have no motivation to have them slabbed. Do you reckon Lionel Carter got his cards graded when grading caught on (if it has caught on...)?? No sir, his cards were graded only when the time came to sell them. So ask this question again when you give time for a generation of collectors to cycle through. I'd say about 25 years or so. Then, maybe most of the really nice white border tobacco cards will be graded.

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Posted By: JimB

Perhaps an interesting question would be how long any given card remains in one collection. Lionel Carter's '33 Goudeys remained in his collection for 74 years, but I doubt that is the norm. I would seriously doubt there are many more original collections of '33 Goudeys in the hands of people who bought them in packs.

So my question is: How many of you have seen a nm/mt T206 change hands either publically or privately in the past ten years that was not graded? Sure, there are a lot of low and mid-grade raw T206s around and that change hands in raw form (I own close to 500 of them), but the last high-grade T206 I saw for sale that was not graded (or trimmed) was probably close to a dozen years ago. So the question is: How often do they change hands since when they do, they are graded. If 80% change hands more frequently than every fifteen years or so, then probably 80% of them are graded. And while there are some, like Frank, who do not get their cards graded that stay in their collections, many other people do.
JimB

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Posted By: peter chao

JimB,

The problem with this approach is that graded cards probably change hands more often than ungraded cards. People often buy graded cards with the intent to sell in the near future.

Peter C.

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Posted By: cmoking

regarding Lionel Carter's T206 set that resided in his collection for 70+ years - how many SGC 88+ cards came out of his collection? Mastro's old auction isn't online anymore. IIRC, it was very few, if any. So, if the guy that cared the most about condition in the old days has very few...well, that tells me either that there are very few raw left and most are graded (say 70%+)...or PSA 8 cards have been created.

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Posted By: Frank Wakefield

Absolutely none of the really good white border tobacco cards I've bought were graded. I've bought from dealers and individuals, through the mail, at collectors' homes, and at shows.

So I think if you're tracking eBay sales then graded is the likely format. But not on all sales. Although that is how it would look to a graded card collector who buys on eBay and from the major auction houses.

I guarantee B Binder didn't see any of my purchases of high grade white border tobacco cards. I've not bid one in on eBay...

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Posted By: Ted Zanidakis

In my limited knowledge of T206 sets out there in the population, I have personally seen two ungraded
sets that would Grade overall a "7". Both of these sets belong to fellow collectors who I have known for
over 25 years.

The slightly better set consists of 523 cards..,..Wagner is ExMt and Plank is Ex (no Doyle). I'd estimate
about 20% of the cards in this set are "8's" (or 100+ cards). And, 60% are "7's"; and, the remaining 20%
are "6's".

The owner of this set has no interest in ever getting his collection graded. But, several years ago he put
some of his best ones to the test by sumbmitting to SGC and they all graded "8's".

Set #2.....this set consists of 521 cards (no Wagner, Plank or Doyle). It's a beautiful set that each card
would consistently grade a "7". There are a some "8's" in it; but, no "6's". This owner has no interest in
having them graded.

Both of these sets have been meticulously upgraded over a period of 30+ years.

These are the only two T206 sets that I can vouch for. My 2nd T206 set was my best condition set, and
I'd say it was an overall Grade 6....I can tell you, though, that there are many more T206 sets such as
these, that are out there in the population that will never appear in a Registry or in a POP reports.

TED Z

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Posted By: Brett

I think the real question is how many of the PSA 7s-9s are altered...

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Posted By: ItsOnlyGil

Every PSA8 was raw for 80 years or so, and they survived. Chiefly because they were "put away". Whan PSA arrived on the scene some of these "put aways" came out.

If you think that 80% of the "put aways" came out, then that is your opinion.

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Posted By: Frank Wakefield

I doubt that 80% of old collectors with T206 sets have heard of PSA...

Well that might be a stretch. But not much of one.


Again, some folks who collect graded T206s seem unable to understand that there are old collectors out there with 520+ sets who could care less about PSA, SGC, and the bunch. Just like Ted says.

I do think a significant number of graded T206s with high grades are soaked, trimmed, and a few stretched. And these are more prevalent among the graded cards than the ungraded cards. And I think the grader guys are doing a better job now, so more of the more recently graded cards are closer to being accurately graded than in the early days. I don't know much about those numbers on the slabs, but I figure you guys can look at them and figure out about when a card was graded. I'd think that in the first few years that soaked, stretched and trimmed cards got past the scrutiny easier.

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Posted By: Solomon Cramer

On the number of 8/88s graded as of Dec 31 1995? 1996, 1997, ...2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, ... 2006?

That would be the best way to get an idea how many new 8s are coming out every year. In theory, since the boom has passed, the number of new 8s should be decreasing as the years pass.

I'm not sure how many 8s are being cracked to try for 9s, or how many cards are being crossed from SGC/PSA. But those should be the only factors disrupting a nice progressive function.

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Posted By: cmoking

Ted, its always good to hear about personal experiences with seeing raw cards that would probably grade that high...thank you. Over the two sets - approximately how many 8s do you think are in them? And how many others would you guess collected like the two collectors you mentioned. And lastly, what percentage o�

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Posted By: JimB

Frank,
Let's see scans of some of your nm/mt raw T206s.

Ted,
Thanks for that info. I think I know one of the sets you are speaking of. But even with Ted's knowledge of these two high-grade sets, I would guess that he knows a good percentage of the old-time T206 collectors who still have raw high-grade sets and he can think of two that are that nice and those are mostly ex/mt to nm.

There are 2224 PSA 8s, 257 9's, and 13 10's for a total of 2484 nm/mt or better T206s graded. I did NOT look up SGC totals, but if we take PSA's totals here to be the total, if someone argues that more that 20% of the total nm/mt or better T206s are not yet graded, you are saying there are nearly 500 raw nm/mt T206s out there. I seriously doubt that at this point. I am sure there are great sets out there, like Ted mentioned, but I seriously doubt that many would grade out that highly. Remember that we are not talking about NM 7's here - just nm/mt 8 and above.
JimB

Edited to add the NOT I forgot before.

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Posted By: cmoking

my post got cut off...I'll repost:

Ted, its always good to hear about personal experiences with seeing raw cards that would probably grade that high...thank you. Over the two sets - approximately how many 8s do you think are in them? And how many others would you guess collected like the two collectors you mentioned. And lastly, what percentage of PSA 8 level cards do you think have been slabbed (apologies if you've already mentioned it but I missed it).

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Posted By: JimCrandell

JimB,

I'm with you. Every time I see an old time collectors set that is pre-war who says it is a near mint or better set, I don't see any cards that in my opinion would grade psa 8.

As you suggest the number may well be comfortably in excess of 80%. In that case, the low pops now will in almost all cases be the low pops of the future.

For those that think they have raw nrmt-mt cards(Frank?), scan 'em and lets see.

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Posted By: Peter_Spaeth

A related question: if all the PSA 8s in the world were cracked out of their holders what percentage would regrade?

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Posted By: Brian

This question can't be answered because the number of nrmt/mt raw T206 cards is growing daily.

There were fewer nrmt/mt T206 cards in 1915 than there are today. And there will be more in 2015 than there are today.

Its gravity.

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Posted By: Marc S.

often amazes me...

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Posted By: Ted Zanidakis

To your inquiry......

"Ted, its always good to hear about personal experiences with seeing raw cards that would probably grade that high...thank you.
Over the two sets - approximately how many 8s do you think are in them? And how many others would you guess collected like
the two collectors you mentioned. And lastly, what percentage of PSA 8 level cards do you think have been slabbed (apologies if
you've already mentioned it but I missed it)."

I did already answer your last one....that is if it pertains to the 1st T206 set I described......

"The slightly better set consists of 523 cards....Wagner is ExMt and Plank is Ex (no Doyle). I'd estimate about 20% of the cards in
this set are "8's" (or 100+ cards). And, 60% are "7's"; and, the remaining 20% are "6's".

Look, I cannot discern the difference between a card that would Grade 7 or an 8. To me they are one and the same (Near Mint vs
Near Mint Mint is just a matter of semantics). But, I did say.....

"The owner of this set has no interest in ever getting his collection graded. But, several years ago he put some of his best ones to
the test by submitting to SGC and they all graded "8's".."

Now, how many of these 100+ (possible 8's) he submitted, and indeed they were graded as such, I don't know. Perhaps all 100+ of
them were, or just a partial amount. I trust his word that he went thru this exercise.

And, to your other question....how can you expect me to have an actual number of how many "raw" T206 collections are out there
in the hinterland ? Up until two years ago, when I got onboard Net54, I was quite private about my Sportscard collection; and, only
about 1/2 a dozen on this Forum knew of me. Except for the various vintage card articles I had published.

I took this time to respond to you here because I have a lot of respect for you. There are others on here that are skeptical about
what I have posted here and that's their problem....because if I was to reveal one of these owners....it would shut them up.
The 2nd owner is a very good friend of mine (25 years) and is a very private collector (I don't think anyone on Net54 would know him).

Thanks for your inquiries,

TED Z

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Posted By: Frank Wakefield

JimB and JimC, you guys collect high grade slabbed cards. I don't collect them.

Seems to me that when you tell me to post my near mint or mint ungraded T206s, you're couching your request in a position that I never took, so that you can either "win" some argument or point, or attempt to discredit me. Go back and read my unedited posts, guys. I never said I'd bought mint a T206, nor did I claim to still have one.

I did say I'd bought some high grade ones, and what I consider high grade might rate a 7 or 8... I don't think that is mint. The ones I had I've sold. The couple I sent to Leon, who got them graded via SGC. Then I sold them. I'd try to sell them after I'd obtained a card to replace the one I was selling. I will get my little box of white border tobacco cards out to see if any remain in great shape, not so much to prove anything to you two, but because if there is I'll get it graded and sell it, too. I like collecting cards. I only bought a really nice one when that was the only one I could locate for sale. I think the obsession with nrMt and Mt is nuts, and I understand you guys don't think that way.

If this response proves anything to you, then it wouldn't have mattered what I'd posted. I guess you guys would think it a stolen scan.

If I find a good one I'll sell it too, I won't have it a few months from now, either. Just like I sold the others.

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Posted By: T206Collector

Putting aside whether or not PSA can accurately keep track of and publicize the number of a certain card graded a certain condition -- a fact never proven to my satisfaction -- what about recent microtrimmed cards getting holdered and affecting populations?

Seems to me, the best incentive to trim a card into an 8 would be to target the cards with the lowest populations.

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Posted By: JimB

Frank,
You sure have read a lot into what I said that is not there. You also seem to presume I am certain type of collector and you have misconceptions there as well. Did you happen to read the line where I mentioned that I have about 500 raw T206s in mid-grade?

I implied nothing by asking to see your high-grade raw T206s. You made statments and I simply wanted to see scans because I have not seen any raw ones above ex/mt in more than a decade - other than my own which I had graded and sold.
JimB

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Posted By: peter chao

Frank,

I'm sure that JimB wasn't making any type of personal attack.

And I certainly don't think we are exhibiting any type of anti-PSA bias on this thread. But why is it so difficult for people to believe that there may be over 50% unslabbed high grade T206's out there?

I can't speak for all collectors of course, but personally, I got back into the hobby because it was something unique and different I could do.

Why is it so difficult to believe that this type of mentality still exists among some collectors? By the way I only have a handful of T-206's, so I'm just speculating here. If a high-grade T-206 collector wasn't that concerned about the monetary aspects of the hobby, why would he suddenly want to conform to the grading "fad."

Peter C.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Frank,

Agree completely with JimB. I know you don't like graded cards. I just think raw nrmt-mt T206s are as scarce as hen's teeth as the late Joe Tex would say and I was hoping to see a couple.

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Posted By: ItsOnlyGil

Why when the subject is the grade of a card we work together as advesaries? When the subject is any other technical characteristic of cards, we work as colleagues.