A Glance At Different Sets--Percentage in High Grade

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Posted By: cmoking

Ted, I agree with all the crack-outs, resubmissions, that some numbers will be faulty. If the reader believed in the numbers completely, then he'd have to believe that all numbers were accurate, but as we all know they aren't. But in the end, I think they are still useful to get a ballpark number. I know I have put it to good use myself.

Joann wrote:
"Doesn't it seem like HOFer's would definitely have more high grade cards than commons? Because they were the stars, the famous players, so I would think they were saved more carefully and preserved better than others. It seems like their average grade would be significantly (in the statistical sense) than commons. Unfortunately, pop reports would not be helpful here, since the tendency to want to grade HOFer's more than commons would create a bias."

I ran the numbers for the 1933 Goudey set. A whopping 25% of the cards are HOFers (60 out of 240). The Lajoie gives it a little twist, but at least it was replaced by another HOFer (144 Ruth was double-printed in Lajoie's place), so it shouldn't change the HOF percentages.

HOFers in PSA 8 and higher: 7.9%
Non-HOFers in PSA 8 and higher: 9.0%

This is a bit surprising as it doesn't mesh with Joann's theory (that HOFers would be cared for more). But the twist of the grading game may have gotten in the way. I don't have any proof, and PSA would deny it, but I bet they are a bit more careful giving high grades to HOFers than they are to commons, mainly because of the big money involved.

But the other problem is that people are more likely to get HOFers graded, even in low grade. A Ruth sells better in PSA 2 grade than raw, but a lowly common may not. So looking from a percentage basis of all cards graded may be misleading.

So...another way to look at it is what percent of PSA 8 cards are HOFers and commons? PSA 8 commons sell very well, even the highest pop PSA 8 Goudey commons routinely go for $400. So there is little reason not to get a common graded if it was such high grade. Here are the PSA 8 comparisons:

HOFers: 1,125 or 34.2% of all PSA 8s
Commons: 2,165 or 65.8% of all PSA 8s

As mentioned before, HOFers account for 25% of the 1933 Goudey set. I believe this is the right comparison to look at, and it does mesh with Joann's logic.