Is there a pre-war set likely to decrease in value?

[Archive]

Posted By: peter chao

Okay, I'll stop bitching and moaning about the registry people. However, I will say this, people are going to buy T206's in a grade that is similar to what they already have. Let's put it this way I have T206's in PSA 3 and 4. I'm certainly not going to waste my money on a Walter Johnson portrait in PSA 7 or 8.

The reverse is also probably true. Somebody that collects PSA 7 or better isn't going to be buying PSA 3 or 4.

Once the set registry people have bought their PSA 7 or 8's, whose going to be the next person to buy at that level. A new collector probably won't start out at that level. Somebody who wants to compete with the registry people will see that somebody else has a T206 set in PSA 7 already. Their unlikely to want to compete from scratch. So the question becomes who is going to be person that picks up the slack.

My answer is there will be nobody there to pick up the slack. Thus the price will continue dropping until somebody decides they will pick up the slack. It might be the guy that's collecting T206 in PSA 6 who wouldn't mind having a few PSA 8s in his collection. But the guy probably won't step in until the price drops.

Peter