Anybody surprised by the T206 set auction on ebay?

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Posted By: Dave F

I was a little surprised it didn't go for slightly higher. True it didn't have a Magie or Doyle. I have a feeling had this whole set been graded by PSA instead of different companies it would have surely went higher....could have been completely graded by SGC as well...no need to start anything there. I'm curious if anybody has an idea what the reserve may have been set at?

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&ih=020&sspagename=STRK%3AMEWA%3AIT&viewitem=&item=300113825521&rd=1&rd=1

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Posted By: T206Collector

a) eBay is the wrong forum to sell this; I think it would have gone higher in REA or Mastro;

b) Reserve Price auctions always sell for less, since many bidders won't even place a bid on a RP auction;

c) The average grades were vg-ex, but there were not any standout high grade ones to bring the price up.

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Posted By: MVSNYC

i agree with Paul here...i usually never waste my time bidding on reserve auctions...OR if it is something i really want, i will email the seller and ask what the reserve is, usually 8 out of 10 times the seller will tell you, you'd be surprised.

i also agree Dave, that if it were ALL PSA graded, it would have went for much higher (maybe in the $75K range)...if it were ALL SGC graded, might have been in the $55K range...just my opinion...

i know a few top collectors from PSA's set reg, that would have eaten that up if it were ALL PSA graded...it's too much of a pain in the ass to get those cards crossed-over. most people who could afford such a near-set, do not have the time to sit down and fill out PSA submission forms, they want the cards fed-exed to their door step ready to pop into their set reg page, no time for anything less.

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Posted By: Rick McQuillan

I wonder why this was listed under "singles"? I look in the "pre 1950's lots" listings almost every day, so I didn't see this listed under "singles". (Not that I would have been able to pony up $35k anyway) I would like to find out what the reserve was. My feeling is that the final price was low.

If you look at -lets say - $1200-$1500 each for the Cobbs and Youngs, a few hundred each for the Mathewsons and other big names, $2000-$3000 each for the Elberfeld and Demmitt, that roughly puts the total at $14-$18000. Some of the commons have hard to find backs, but there are no rare backs, like Uzit or Broad Leaf, so that basically leaves us with about 500 commons, mostly in the VG and VG/EX range. Lets say that 1/2 are VG @ 30 each (which is low for a graded VG, which comes to $7500, and 1/2 are VG/EX @50 each for $12500, that puts us up to $34-$38000. I would rather have this lot raw, but you have to figure that the seller spent at least $5k to grade this lot.

This is a quick, down and dirty estimate just to get a discussion going. If I were seriously going after each lot I would analyze and price each card before making a run at the lot. I am interested in hearing other opinions.

Rick

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Posted By: Dave F

Rick...I seriously doubt the seller invested in to much of the grading fees here. I would have to think if he had there would be more uniformity in the slabs. I would suspect he picked this up as is off ebay or the likes.

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Posted By: Frank Wakefield

I agree with all above, but for saying to sell it in Mastro....

When saying you're surprised that it didn't go for more, it didn't "go" at all.

Like some of you, I found it, and watched it, with curiosity, wondering how it would do. A problem with putting together a set is disposing of it. Who of us bought 500+ T206s all at once? A few of us, but not many. I'm hoping for a kid or grandkid one day who's really interested in old cards... then I can leave stuff to him or her. To me, that seems better than selling them.

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Posted By: barrysloate

It didn't meet the reserve, so there is no sale anyway.

I don't think ebay is any worse a medium than any other, including the major auction houses. Perhaps because this entailed laying out so much money to a stranger is what scared people off. I would have been willing to bid higher than the final bid but I don't know who the seller is.

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Posted By: MVSNYC

good point barry, as far as the seller being a "stranger"...there would be so much more bidder's confidence with a well known auction house...there would be no fear at that point, and the bidding would be much higher (even on this mixed-slab lot).

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Posted By: MVSNYC

point in case, let's see how this sotheby's T206 near-set does...and i think only 18 cards have been PSA slabbed...the rest is raw.

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Posted By: Pennsylvania Ted

I'm away for the weekend and I've been "clicking in" ocassionally (on our laptop) and my real SURPRISE
on this ebay lot is that only 7 bidders were interested in this near set.

I have to agree with Rick McQ.....when you boil it all down and do the math, you are looking at $25 per
card....and that's a real bargain for almost 500 - T206's averaging Vg-Ex.

Furthermore, the comments that this Seller is an "un-known" is ridculous. The seller has an huge Feed-
back Profile (FP). My "rule-of-thumb" is not only the magnitude of the "unique Positive #" in a seller's FP;
but, more importantly, his total #....which tells us a lot about the repeat customers that trust him.

And, on ebay you don't have to pay that dreaded "juice"....let's assume this set would have sold for 40K.
Then it would be a minimum of 46K with the "juice" that most "auction houses" require.

Finally, I'm trying to understand this "distrust" of this collection, as some have posted here. The seller has
all 520 cards in graded form....what more can you ask for. And yet, some of you guys still have problems
trusting the "authenticity" of these cards.

Someone please explain to me this kind of thinking....because I find it mind-boggling ? ?


P.S.....If this set is re-listed, I think I'm going to see if some would like to "pool" some funds together and
go for it.

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Posted By: MVSNYC

ted- just to clarify, my comments were not saying there is mis-trust, just saying that IF this lot were in Mastro's or REA, that there would be no worries at all, just bid away...to paul's point about the reserve plus the fact that the seller, to barry's point, is relatively unknown, even though he has great feedback, is a slight risk sending a $35K+ check to someone who you do not know, gabeesh?

but i totally agree that the bidding stopped at a low price...

i might be willing to talk about pooling funds together, if this lot is listed again, we'll see.

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Posted By: JimB

I think Barry hit the nail on the head. That is a lot of money to risk on an ebay lot with someone you don't know. Granted, they have a lot of feedback and look quite legit, but still. If it were a well-known nationally recognized dealer, it probably would have gone for more.
JimB

P.S. I think the lack of Buyers Premium is irrelavent. WHo here does not figure in BPs when bidding in big auction houses? 36k on Ebay to me is 30k + 6k BP in Mastro. I don't wake up the morning after the Mastro auction and think, "Oh #*%@, I forgot about the BP."

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Posted By: sagard

The seller and the cards are real. I've been to his place of business to both check out lots and offer card to him for sale. He advertises as "baseballcardbuyer.com" in the SMR and at PSAs site.

I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up parting this lot out and was simply taking a shot at a quick sale for a consigner.

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Posted By: barrysloate

We know the cards are real, but people may hesitate to write a check for 35K-40K to someone they don't know.

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Posted By: Dave S

I think the last "P.S." point Ted made is very noteworthy, i.e. a major Auction House distributes catalogs a month in advance and has a couple-week bidding window. Giving interested parties plenty of time to pool. This set on Ebay (believe it was only a 5 day but even if it was 7) certainly didn't allow much time for such a pooling opportunity...

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Posted By: Pennsylvania Ted

I don't agree.....with a big $$$$$ purchase such as this.....

1st..you contact seller (preferably by phone) and ask some pertinent questions that will gain
you trust in seller.

2nd..you contact fellow hobbyists in the seller's area, who can vouch for the seller's integrity.

3rd.. and then bid with confidence......the sale of this set should not have been a "shutout".

P.S......

I do not participate in the major auctions anymore, because it's against my better judgement
to be bidding at 10% increments.

Bidding increments of 10%......compounded......double the starting price in just 7 bids....and,
quadruple the starting price in 14 bids. Consequently, over-inflated "sold prices" are realized
due to this ridiculous bidding standard, that no one even questions. And unfortunately, in my
opinion, sets new unrealistic values to cards (or sets).

I aint going to follow this format. I'll do ebay....any day....with their simple, linear increments
in their bidding process.

TED Z

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Posted By: Cy

Another thought is that if you are willing to pay $35K to $45K on this set, why not invest a few extra hundred dollars and fly to him and pick up the set in person. That will save you the anxiety.

Cy

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Posted By: MVSNYC

good point cy, i think the fact that it was a reserve auction, probably had the biggest effect on the lot remaining low and not so many bidders...to paul's point, people really shy away from reserve auctions

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Posted By: John

I consider the Demmitt in a 4 a stand out card and Elberfeld in a 5 wasn't bad either...

But still I agree wrong place to sell that item. Although it did have one of my favorite quotes in sometime.

"Some of the standouts include a PSA 5 Kid Elberfeld Washington, Portrait; Ray Demmitt St. Louis SGC 4 - with a Polar Bear back! - two of the Cy Youngs are SGC 4; Johnny Evers Cubs Shirt SGC 5; Tris Speaker SGC 5; Bill O' Hara St. Louis with a Polar Bear back and more!"

Both Demmitt and O'Hara with POLAR BEAR Backs!!!!!! Wow what are the chances of that??? LOL

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Posted By: T206Collector

...that ebay is a better place to buy cards than Mastro and REA, for all of the reasons stated. I just think Mastro or REA would have realized more money for the seller. Indeed, given the fixed increment format, and buyer confidence in the big auction houses, you just get more for the big stuff.

I also agree, instead of paying the juice, invest in a plane ticket to wherever these cards are and pick them up yerself...

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Posted By: dennis

i would think if someone had the cash and wanted to buy that set,they would have asked the seller what the reserve was. maybe the seller wanted more than it is worth?

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Posted By: barrysloate

Ted- I agree that it was probably safe enough to place a bid on this set and not have to worry about it. Of course, we still have no idea what the reserve was.

As far as not bidding with the main auction houses because of the 10% increments, that makes no sense. Even if there were 40% increments, you can still get your high bid in and stop. If anything the bigger increments will help you.

If $5000 is your max bid, it will take a $5500 bid to top it. On ebay, you can be topped at $5050. You have a better chance of winning it with the higher increment.

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Posted By: jay wolt

The set probably flew under the radar of some collectors/investors
who scour eBay and use PSA & SGC in their searches. The seller had
both represented but didn't list either in the auction title.

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Posted By: JimB

I would prefer specific amounts for bidding increments rather than percentages. For example:

500-1000 $50 increments
1000-2000 $100 increments
2000-6000 $250 increments
6000-15,000 $500 increments
15,000-30,000 $1,000 increments
30,000-50,000 $2,000 increments
50,000-100,000 $2,500 increments
100,000+ $5,000 increments

I am talking about auction houses here, not ebay. The precise numbers may need to be tweaked, but you get the idea. They are significant, yet reasonable amounts to raise a bid. I can't remember which ones, but I believe some auction houses have used this sort of system. I believe Superior used to.
JimB

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Posted By: mvsnyc

jim- i couldn't agree more...

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Posted By: barrysloate

Jim- REA uses set increments, and all live auctions do, such as Sotheby's. But not exactly those specific ones.

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Posted By: Brett

I'd like to know how much money the guy spent grading 500 cards.... you probably could have baught a nice card with that money

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Posted By: T206Collector

...spent $1,000 getting 200 T206 cards graded. When I sold 400 of my T206 cards a few months later, I made that money back easily -- not only in the value returned, but also in the ease of sale.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Because the set consisted of cards from three, if not four different grading services, it's likely the owner got them that way. As such, he may not have spent anything on grading fees.