Let's Be Frank, Actually My Name Is Peter...

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Posted By: peter chao

Guys,

Let's say the bottom dropped out of the T-206 market. I'm not talking about a price adjustment. I'm talking about a major drop. I'll give you a possible scenario. Let's say that the steroid scandal got out of hand and people just felt that baseball was no longer America's pastime.

The prices of T-206's were dropping each and every hour. Evertime you bought a UZIT back, the price of UZIT's would drop another hundred.

Come on be real here, how many of you would still buy and if you continued to buy, which cards would you buy. Also, would it be important to you whether the market turned around. Why or why not.

Peter

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Posted By: Steve Dawson

I would love it....I might actually be able to get a Plank and Wagner !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



Steve

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Posted By: Kevin

How about a more realistic scenario?

Let’s say that any T206 card could be forged.

As in counterfeit money, printing has never been the big problem...it’s the paper. IMO with some effort printing a T206 could possible be duplicated. If they could do it 100 years ago it doesn’t seem like it would be much of a problem with modern technology. Getting the exact paper with the proper cuts would be the only set back.

What if the paper with cuts could be made and the printing somewhat perfected to the point it would be difficult to make an accurate assessment as to which is real and which is fake?

Kevin

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Posted By: dennis

it would be great,just like the 70's, i would love it!

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Posted By: peter chao

Guys,

Here's the point I was trying to make, most of you would either stop collecting or hope that the market turned around. This is the point I was hoping to make.

Right now we collect T-206's because it's fun and the market is trending upwards. I'll be frank, it's more fun when the cards are increasing in value faster than my 401(k). And although I would still love baseball, it would be a lot less fun if the market continously trended downwards. It would come to the point where I just went to games and stop collecting. Or at least I would wait until the market started rebounding.

Peter

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Posted By: Dave

Saying it would be less fun and you'd possibly stop collecting....well, aren't the modern cards you collect not going up in value the same as pre-war cards are now?

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Posted By: peter chao

Well if the prewar stuff dropped then the modern card market would probably follow. I would stop collecting both.

Peter

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Posted By: Steve M.

Kevin's post? Be afraid, be very afraid.

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Posted By: Dave Hornish

I would buy Buy BUY! Especially pre WW1 stuff. Everything is cyclical so a downturn would mean more buying opportunties just like with the stock market.

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Posted By: peter chao

Kevin, Steve

Well, isn't that what the grading companies are suppose to protect us against. Their the ones that detect counterfeiting and protect the hobby against the unscruplous.

Peter

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Posted By: Steve M.

I think Kevin's scenario suggests that maybe the fakes would be so good that even the grading companys could not detect them.

Remember too that this "scenario" is coming from someone who knows of what he speaks.

Be afraid, be very afraid.

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Posted By: Mark L

If the bottom fell out because people stopped wanting the cards, I would buy up as much as I could because I think they're really great. I would regret the money I spent on them when the price was high but would console myself with the money I saved in not completing all those early sets. But if someday we found a glut of pre-war cards, I suppose I would feel less urgency to pick them up. If you want a realistic scenario, how about the following? The other day a member allowed that he owned 60,000 pre-1920 baseball cards. What if he and ten others with similar collectors decided to sell everything they had. Let's say a million pre-war cards hit ebay on the next dump day. and another million or two turned up the next week. After the collapse, I would pick up a few of the Wagner and Cobbs that I still want, finish some sets, and turn to other pastimes.

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Posted By: john/z28jd

Peter, I think the collectors would still collect especially if the prices went real low,then they would be bidding against themselves and depending on how much extra money they had it might drive the price right back up. Its hard to imagine with baseball cards that they would drop like coins or stamps or art could because baseball players have stats and teams behind them.

Whos going to sell their collections when the prices have bottomed out anyway? Would you rather have a few dollars or the cards you collected? Even if youre an investor,you wouldnt sell low,you would buy low and sell high so i could see investors as well as collectors keeping the t206 market from ever dropping out. You would need the market to get flooded then and with cards that havent been printed in almost 100 years now,thats just not going to happen out of the blue

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Posted By: john/z28jd

Hey Steve,lets assume the cards are so good that even collectors and experts cant tell the difference, then whos going to know? How would you know theyre actually fake and if they are wouldnt that just affect high grade cards? You can always tell when a new card has been artifically aged so mid and low grade cards wouldnt suffer....and thats assuming that this person making these undetectable cards would settle for lower prices of mid grade cards which they would have absolutely no reason to do when no one can tell the high grade cards are fake

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Posted By: Kevin

"Their the ones that detect counterfeiting and protect the hobby against the unscruplous."

They are the ones that try their best...and do a good job. As proven, an advanced card doctor can get almost anything by. If it can't get by then I'm sure almost anything can be completly created.

BTW...in addition forging the T206 card, throw in a reprinted flip and clean slab too .

In our hobby just when you think something is not possible you realize anything is possible.

Enjoy!

Kevin Saucier

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Posted By: Kevin

"You can always tell when a new card has been artifically aged"

Ah, but can you tell when an old card has been made to look newer then artificially aged? I can't and neither can the best graders in most cases.

An example: Nazi forged pounds almost ruined the British economy.


Kevin Saucier

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Posted By: john/z28jd

The slabs would have to correspond to numbers that actually exist in the companies system so you would have to do that while not tipping off a person who collects high grade cards and would be your number 1 customer,and could possibly have the exact same card youre trying to sell. If someones going to go thru all of that trouble,wouldnt it just be 100 times easier to just steal a scan,run a bunch of auctions all at once for expensive cards and then once they have the money go into hiding. I cant see a criminal taking this much time to get the printing exactly right,actually go thru with the printing,then having slabs made and looking up all the labels to make sure the grades correspond,then running an auction,or mailing it to an auction house and waiting for their money while the whole time hoping that no one else finds out theyre commiting a federal crime.....or they can just steal a scan

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Posted By: john/z28jd

In that case Kevin,its still an old card and worth more than the 5 cents a reprint is worth no matter what the condition it was normally in.That isnt a new card on the market and would still affect the high grade guys who care more about the slab number than whats actually in it

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Posted By: peter chao

Kevin,

In order for counterfeiters to spend time counterfeiting there has to be an economic incentive. If the bottom-dropped out of the T-206 market it will no longer worthwhile for them to counterfeit. Actually counterfeiting isn't that easy to do. Like you said you need to purchase the paper get a printing press together. Furthermore, obviously there is also the threat of criminal prosecution. So when the value of T-206s dropped low enough, people would stop counterfeiting.

Peter

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Kevin,

I owe you a call. I do want to speak with you-- sorry.

Don't post anymore Kevin--people will think you are serious.

Actually, I would venture to say based on what I know about him that Kevin knows more about card restoration than anyone on this board and possibly as much as anyone in the hobby(including the grading companies).

And it is very scary--which may explain why I have not called you yet Kevin.

Jim

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Posted By: jay behrens

You all say that you will buy up everything and keep collecting, but this just is true. For those of use that have been around long enough, we know it's not true. All you have to do is look at the recession of the early 80s and market in the early 90s. People were bailing out left and right, including supposed "true" collectors. When prices of something valuable start to drop, people panic and start selling to try and get as much value before the market totally bottoms out.

What you think you will do and what you actually will do are in all likelyhood, two very different things, as history has proven.

Jay

I love pinatas. You get to beat the crap of something and get rewarded with candy.

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Posted By: peter chao

John,

Actually, I had a client that did that to all their creditors. My client was a distributor of computers and computer related equipment and making lots of bucks. They paid me a monthly retainer of $2,000 every month in a timely manner. As a matter of fact they would pay me faster than any of my other clients.

One time I happened to run across their banking records and I realized that they had a line of credit that allowed them to purchase over 10 million from various manufacturers.

The interesting thing was I also ran across their accounting records and I found out that even though it appeared that they were doing well, in reality they were just breaking even. Well one day they simply purchased over 10 million worth of computers and computer-related products from various manufactuer's and simply packed their bags and left their warehouse headquarters. Of course, they didn't pay their retainer that month and I couldn't locate them.

The rumor was they had taken all the computers and computer-related equipment and took off for Latin America. At the time there was a thriving grey market in the U.S. and in Japan for computer products. The grey market is like the black market where employees and others stole computer equipment and chips from their employers and sold the equipment and chips at a discount to buyers.

The rumor went further and speculated that my clients had gotten cheap warehouse space in Latin America and was selling the computers and the equipment on the grey market at a discount.

Although I was contacted by the FBI about the situation, it was obvious I didn't know anything. It's been years now, and there has been no follow-up by the FBI.

Peter

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Posted By: john/z28jd

Well Jay when people bailed out that means someone was there to buy them because you cant sell stuff if you have no buyers. Those people who bought then would probably realize that they could do the same thing,hold on to the cards and make money in the future.People who are trying to put together a set as collectors will see their chance to finish the set cheap. I dont collect t206s anymore but if someone told me i can get a ton of vg commons for $5 each im jumping all over it,i dont care what you say

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Posted By: Judge Dred (Fred)

This thread of hypotheticals is fun... would I like to see the bottom fall out of the card market, SURE, then I could pick up material reasonably and the material I paid dearly for would be damned but it'd still be mine.

High quality counterfeits would probably be detectable through some type of testing. This would only lead to higher prices in having cards slabbed. There'd be two slabs - the first being the cards slabbed before "greater detection" and the cards slabbed with the "greater detection". I think John's right, it's fairly easy to tell if a low-mid grade card has been altered. Those cards would probably be safe. The unfortunate grouping of cards would probably be the high grade cards. Just my opinions.

Seriously, like I've always said, I could care less if this cardboard turned out to be worth only a few dollars a pound because I'd pick it up cheap and it would make the hobby that much more enjoyable. I'm in it for the stats, teams and history of the game not to pad my retirement. After I retired selling off a collection would be difficult, it'd be like trying to figure what child you'd like to sell. I'll leave that up to my family after I'm dead and gone. I would hope that they would keep a couple of the cards for my memory, but if they sold them all and decided to buy a bigger big screen TV with the cards, that's their choice.

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Posted By: Jason L

I would love it!
I am a fan of the game of baseball first
I am a baseball card collector second
and I am a baseball card "investor" third

So, if the market for cards dropped through the floor because the game fell out of favor with the collecting public (which is the only demographic that matters here), then I would be happy as a pig in slop, because there is no reason for the game to stop being MY pasttime, I would still be a collector, and the opportunity would likely turn me into a major "investor."

I love collecting the cards, and I enjoy the history they represent. The physical cards would be the same, history wouldn't have changed - just the future value would be in doubt...but with contiually falling prices, that important barrier to entry would be evaporating, hourly, as you say - so, BUY BUY BUY!!!

Now, if the market fell apart because of some other macro-factor like a depression, global war, or say, the Cubs winning the Series, well....that's different.

One strategy would be to complete all the sets you had your eyes on before the drop...but wouldn't this be fun instead: Focus on one or 2 cards or sets and hoard them so that when the market returns, they cannot be found, except for whaterever price you set!!! How exciting would that be?

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Posted By: Frank Wakefield

Well I'd keep collecting them if their cost plunged. I didn't commence collecting them with a hope that they'd appreciate in value. Their value isn't all that significant to me. And I figure that for those who think it really is about the money, those folks won't be able to understand my thinking.

If printing is easy, and it is the paper that is difficult, then why not buy T58 Fish or T60 Flags, bleach them down to nothing, then print on that??? What about a hotknife that separates slabs... Buy a PSA 7, separate the slab, reload it with a decent looking 5 or even a reprinted card, then seal it back up... Wrong. Criminal. But I think some folks that focus on slabbed cards wouldn't notice...

I'd keep acquiring the cards if the price bottomed out. The cards I have aren't held as any sort of an investment, no bid deal if prices dove.

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Posted By: jay behrens

John, yes, there have to be people there to buy the cards that people are unloading, but odds are that most people on this board won't be the ones doing the buying. True, diehard collectors like you, me and others will suck up everything we can, but most people on this board would be unloading their collections if the market bottomed out.

I'd be willing to bet that the first major casualties if the market bottomed out would be the set registry freaks. And yes, there are exceptions. Give me a break on that count. There are exceptions to everything, but most of the people heavily involved in the set registries would be bailing fast.

Jay

I love pinatas. You get to beat the crap of something and get rewarded with candy.

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Posted By: peter chao

Jay,

The first to bail will be the investors and the modern day collectors. The people that bought the Derek Jeter error cards, those people probably didn't have any idea of how common the card is. These people will bail first.

The deepness of the drop really depends on how big of a segment the spur of the moment buyers and the investors are. Also how big of a market are the serious collectors. Look you may buy one Walter Johnson portrait card, but will you buy a hundred. If the answer is no, then the market will continue to plunge.

Peter

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Posted By: barrysloate

I agree with Jay that if the bottom fell out not every vintage card collector would be buying up all the spoils. There would be a really bad vibe in the hobby, and many who saw their collections plummet in value would bail out. In that scenario, if the market were flooded with cards that might still be going down in value, there would be a lot less buying than people think.

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Posted By: George

I would find out who is responsible for making the forgeries, and I would kill him.

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Posted By: Mark Lutz

Didn't something like a crash take place in the stamp market about 20 years ago? I assume that was caused by a gradual and general loss of interest in the stamp hobby. From what I can tell, there are still stamp collectors out there even if you don't see stamp shows at the local mall anymore. But I understand that very rare stamps still fetch big prices in some auctions. So I would expect a baseball card crash (due to loss of interest) might wash out the majority of collectors but would still leave us with a bunch of people who would compete for a Cobb/ Cobb or a Baltimore News Ruth. Now, if Kevin's scenario unfolds and every card is readily available, then I don't think the baseball card hobby would last very long. It would be as dull as a paradise in which everything is available to everyone all the time. A few people would finish some sets and everyone would eventually move on to something else.

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Posted By: John

Kevin,

I have to ask, it seems like almost all of your posts are geared around some sort of conspiracy/forgery thing why?

Do you have some secret knowledge of this, if so why can’t you bring this issue to light? Are you the guy printing them? Will the people who are printing them hunt you and your family down if their operation was made public?

I just don’t get it? I mean I understand what your saying, but this applies to most anything. Forgery has been an ugly part of many hobbies, art, manuscripts, currency, memorabilia etc. I know its possible to be done, but unless you or I know who’s doing it and plan to stop them, it all chalks up to another conspiracy theory.

Also each time you post and drop these hints I cant help but wonder if the reason you are tad nebulous in your posts is that you have been, or are currently doing this right now?? Perhaps you’re trying to help and that’s cool, but it’s coming across a bit shady the way you’re going about it.

Maybe I’m the only one who feels this way? If so my apologies…

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Posted By: Mark L

One thing is clear: If Kevin were selling forgeries he wouldn't write about forgery.

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Posted By: Kevin

"people will think you are serious"

Jim, I can assume you've been talking with one of our mutual friends lately . If I were serious I would have never posted.

My only objective is to make collectors aware that anything is possible and to watch and examine your cards and slabs carefully. I am a collector and card doctor...albeit an honest one. All my work is either with me or in "very trusted hands" and will not enter the hobby.

Other posts showing card alterations have been spread out over several different threads. This one camera shot should sum it all up and relieve all doubt that the previous pics were not digitally created (maybe that YouTube post of the guys laughing could be deleted now LOL).

Independently alteration A, B or C would be concerning. Put them all together and...well...yikes:



<“If printing is easy, and it is the paper that is difficult, then why not buy T58 Fish or T60 Flags, bleach them down to nothing, then print on that??? What about a hotknife that separates slabs”>

The cuts and cardstock for each series of cards is slightly different. Above are a few 206's and (if remember) 205's. Hard to tell without inspecting them again, each are completely blank...front and back. I can also show more modern blanks if wanted and/or put a blank in a slab with a blank flip all assembled.

Bringing the stock down to nothing would be sloppy work IMO and be very obvious. I dunno but I think a hotknife would more than likely melt the plastic...just a thought. Besides resealing without a slab machine is very tricky.

Enjoy!

Kevin Saucier


edited - a few spelling errors.

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Posted By: Dylan

When talking about counterfeiting remember too that people who counterfeit money are hoping someone just glances at it and takes it. People examine high value cards with loops and experts grade them. This is a whole different scenerio.

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Posted By: Kevin

<"Perhaps you’re trying to help and that’s cool, but it’s coming across a bit shady the way you’re going about it.">
Just trying to help, that's it! With that in mind...how many here now would think twice before buying an expensive error card or printing flaw?

Yes, I can see where it would seem shady but then again this is all new to most, so it would seem shady. I'm still waiting for that post stating "So what, you show the stuff but your not telling us how it's done." No how-to questions please.

<"One thing is clear: If Kevin were selling forgeries he wouldn't write about forgery.">

Bingo!

<"People examine high value cards with loops and experts grade them. This is a whole different scenerio.">

No difference really, I think we put too much faith in the experts. IMO only a select few are truly experts...and even they should to be trained and updated. Just like the the way Tom Hanks still goes to acting school .

Kevin Saucier

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Posted By: John

Kevin,

Empty slabs don’t concern me, neither do blank slips, I buy cards not holders. You don’t even have to get fancy with hot knives etc, just ask WIWAG….

I have also been collecting for sometime I know a fair amount about the cards I collect and what to look for. Could I be fooled, sure we all could given the right fake and level of the counterfeit in question.

If you want to make collectors aware, perhaps author and E-book detailing the things to look for, show some of the basic tell tale signs of doctored cards, just a thought. This doesn’t have to be a how to guide to doctoring cards, just a how to spot armature work etc.

If you can’t do this and all you can show are the above pics, you’ve really added nothing more than the baseball card equivalent of the “Grassy Knoll” IMO.

If I’m being totally honest with you Kevin, photos of cracked slabs don’t upset or concern me, its statements like the one below that do give me reason for concern. Not questioning your integrity Kevin, just being honest.

“I am a collector and card doctor...albeit an honest one. All my work is either with me or in "very trusted hands" and will not enter the hobby.”

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Posted By: John

To answer your question Peter, let the bottom drop out. I was collecting these long before I knew of any financial gain, and I will collect long after the so-called bottom fell out of them. I remember the days you could count on one hand the cards that could pull 5 figures; LOL and if you had more than 2 cards in your collection worth more than 4 figures you were a collecting god.

In fact if it did, we wouldn’t be having half of the discussions we have on here if it were more about cards, and less about money.

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Posted By: Kevin

<"If you want to make collectors aware, perhaps author and E-book detailing the things to look for, show some of the basic tell tale signs of doctored cards, just a thought. This doesn’t have to be a how to guide to doctoring cards, just a how to spot armature work etc.">

The book is about 3/4 completed...although not an e-book . IMO to write a book one must first establish trust, knowledge and respect amongst peers and experts.

This was a start:

http://www.psacard.com/set%5Fregistry/display_rsets.chtml?setid=226&set_name=1991%20Topps%20Desert%20Shield

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Posted By: barrysloate

If the bottom fell out of the market- and I don't think that will happen- somebody will of course be buying baseball cards because they will all still have some determined value. But the pool of buyers will be a lot smaller.

Regarding the drop in the stamp hobby, I was not active twenty years ago; but one main difference in stamp collecting is it is not drawing in a new generation of collectors, and the older ones are leaving us. There are enough serious collectors today though that will pay a big premium for high quality rare issues. The more plentiful ones, however, can be had for a song.

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Posted By: Bill

"One thing is clear: If Kevin were selling forgeries he wouldn't write about forgery"
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Not true. Not talking about you in particular Kevin, just speaking in generalities. Criminals are caught for one main reason, they talk about the crime they've taken part in. It's in a criminal mindset, they talk about what they've done or plan on doing. One outrageous example, Ted Bundy once wrote a pamphlet for women on precautions to take in order to avoid being in a situation where they may be sexually assaulted. There is a long laundry list of people who talk about what they do. It's a common thing done that the perpetrator thinks draws attention away from him/her, when in actuality does the opposite.
Again, not accusing you of anything Kevin, just speaking in generalities.

Change your socks, drink water, and drive on.

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Posted By: Brett

So many people just buy pre war cards and sell them just to make a buck, so I doubt very many people would buy them if t206 Cobbs were worth $10 in poor shape and commons worth $1. I just buy cards of players I like, or of cards that I like from certain sets. The value of them doesn't matter because I hardly ever sell any cards.

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Posted By: Mark L

Bill,
I think that forgers are a special breed and that they are very unlikely to call attention to a crime the very existence of which they wish to conceal. I agree, however, that Kevin is not comparable to Ted Bundy. The picture I'm getting of him is more like that of Dr. Moreau.

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Posted By: Joann

1. If the bottom dropped out on vintage cards I'd buy like hell (assuming the bottom didn't drop out on everything else along with vintage cards, and I could still afford it). I would have all 4 T206 Cobbs, along with portraits of Johnson, Matty and Cy. I may never be able to afford those now, and would love to see and own them. I'd grab an E95 Cobb that right now is still out of reach, along with a T227. I really think I'd still be buying - I love the way these cards look, and don't think value plays that big a role in the fundamental decision to collect - although it may have a part in each indivdual card buying decision.

2. If the bottom dropped out because the market was flooded with undetectable counterfeits I would stop buying the sets affected. One of the things I like about vintage cards is the very idea that they are so old. If I didn't know they were old, they would lose a lot of appeal to me.

3. Sorry Kevin - I'm with John Wonkaticket on this one. I don't doubt you are very knowledgable, and I take Jim C's endorsement of your expertise seriously. However, to be honest it's just really hard for me to get all worried about very vague warnings and indefinite descriptions of a vintage doomsday. Maybe because the posts are so vague, they tend to fade into the noise of all of the other theories of the unsound footing of vintage cards (eg - XXX% of all cards in PSA Y holders are trimmed). That sort of thing. At some point you just tune it out, unless it's something like Ryan Christoff's posts about the Cuban Polar cards. In that case, there was enough clear detail, along with Mike's somewhat contrary findings when he had his physically analyzed, for collectors to make informed decisions. Just my opinion.

Joann

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Posted By: Bill

Well, being somebody who has partaken in the field, this type of behavior is not limited to certain types of crimes. And Ted Bundy was just an easy example for me to use as many people know his story.

Change your socks, drink water, and drive on.

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Posted By: john/z28jd

Barry I still think the players on the card is what makes them valuable because they have teams theyre associated with and records of what they did.You cant compare stamps to that because their value is based on condition and rarity as opposed to the player. Otherwise every t206 card would be valued the same as long as they were just as easy to find.It would make Cobbs the same price as Bill Bergen.The ones that stand out would be cards like Demmitt and O'Hara who are relative nobodies but hard to find,they can be associated with rare stamps and probably retain a good deal of their value despite the drop.

Im actually hoping for a huge drop in the Old Judge market, I might lose value in what i have already but ill be adding cards as fast as i make money when it does happen.If someone asked me if id rather have 200 OJ common cards worth $20,000 or 1000 of them in the same shape worth $10,000 id be making room for 800 more cards

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Posted By: John

posted twice, odd.

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Posted By: Max Weder

Someone must be forging your posts wonka

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Kevin--they don't get it--

Of course I know you are legit.

What was the quote by one of our mutual friends--if people knew what you know and it got in the wrong hands it could bring down the hobby as we know it today--something like that.

What is funny to me is when collectors on this board lecture others to know their cards and they "know" when cards have been altered or not.

As Kevin could tell you, the best doctors can fool the best graders--certainly Kevin could--but he has not gone over to the dark side.

Kevin will say this I know --as he has said it to me-- but PSA and SGC need to hire a card doctor to show graders what they are doing to the cards.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Kevin- while I do believe you understand the extent of forgeries and the type of restoration being done, I've got to go with the crowd and say that that is the only thing you ever talk about. You have never offered one positive thing about the hobby, but just kind of wait for your opportunity to fill us all with gloom and doom. Perhaps some more balanced posting would add some credibility to what you have to say.