If the bottom fell out...

[Archive]

Posted By: bruce dorskind

Dylan

Let's look at a worse case scenario.

1. There is another stock market crash
2. The US suffers another major terrorist attack
3. There is a major grading scandal at PSA
4. There is a baseball strike

We doubt that even the combination of these four events would have
a significant impact on high end pre war baseball cards.

The market for rare baseball cards is very thin. Furthermore,
people don't collect baseball cards generally. They collect
specific sets, or specific players or teams and/or cards
from a certain era.

The prices for the most expensive items (those over $5000_
are a function of a very limited supply and demand. The hobby's
biggest spenders have very different collecting interests. Their
budgets are more likely to be based on their overall wealth
rather than on current income.

The most important factor in determining price is who is bidding. Once
the top two collectors have the item, the prices tend to drop.

On those items priced between $500 and $5000, the market is
generally limited to 20 or less people with specific collecting
goals. While some would be affected by the "perfect storm," the
market is so thin, and the collectors' interest so diverse, that it is difficult
to imagine how the economy would affect pricing.

Let us assume that all items between $25 and $500 are "E Bay"
items. There you might see some drop (say 20%) on the number
of bidders. However, we doubt that the whole market would collapse,
or that you would see a noticeable drop in card prices.

With baseball cards, it has been our experience (over the past
30 years), that the high end of the market rarely drops. Price is
a function of who is in and who is out of the hobby as well as
the so called “buzz factor. “
.
If it turns out that we are completely wrong, then what you would
see is that sellers would step back, and wait for the market to recover.

Good luck and let's hope that the hobby continues to attract new
collectors and new investors and the hobby prices continue to rise

Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List