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#1
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Posted By: bruce dorskind
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#2
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Posted By: Anonymous
On the Pop Report, there are actually two separate listings. One is listed as "1910 Tip Top Bread Pittsburgh Pirates". This is the report you viewed. The other is listed as "1910 Tip Top Bread". The latter appears to have the "correct" population report. I would suggest e-mailing PSA so they may merge the two reports. |
#3
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Posted By: barrysloate
Though this is a slight digression from your specific question, pop reports are also not always accurate because cards that are broken out and resubmitted can be counted two or more times. |
#4
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Posted By: dennis
barry! this never happens as the graders are 100% accurate so a card will always come back with the same grade |
#5
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Posted By: bruce dorskind
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#6
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Posted By: barrysloate
Dennis- If only we lived in such a perfect world! |
#7
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Posted By: Joe D.
I have personally ruined the pop reports of each of the graders with some cracking of slabs. |
#8
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Posted By: steve f
Until a new standard evolves (UV laser/ion/americium watermark?).. Sadly we'll never know. |
#9
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Posted By: Frank Wakefield
I keep the little tabs... there's a small pile of them on a bookshelf right here where I'm sitting. Wouldn't dream of sending them in. |
#10
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Posted By: cmoking
Pop reports are inaccurate, can be misleading, and at best only takes a current snapshot of cards graded. With that said, the intelligent collector can make good use of the pop reports to his/her benefit. |
#11
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Posted By: barrysloate
Based on the frequency that collectors and dealers resubmit cards, does the population report have any real value at all? It can give you some vague measure of the rarity of a card, but otherwise seems to be very misleading. |
#12
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Posted By: Joe D.
I agree. |
#13
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Posted By: Tom Boblitt
sense could only very LOOSELY be used--especially PSA pop reports. Not to disparage them more than SGC but there are far more PSA (or have been far more) cards cracked and resubmitted by sheer virtue of the fact they grade more than SGC. I'd think a PSA6-7 graded T206 collector should be VERY wary using the PSA pop reports to accurately gauge that census...... |
#14
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Posted By: Mike
I had a situation a few years ago, whereby I gave three rare cards to PSA. Not important which ones. Anyway....one came back a grade 5. A year later it still showed on the report that they had never graded a 5. This was also the case with two other examples I can recall. I still own the cards. A well known dealer took them to PSA for me, on a scheduled trip, and they then added them to the report. I sent several messages myself to PSA, and for the most part, got no response. Now...because they showed no 5, ever being graded, I knew that if I ever went to sell them, this would raise questions from the buyer. I asked PSA, why they were having this problem, again no response. It they had been cards where there were 50 other grade "5's" it wouldn't have mattered so much. I have had this problem a couple times since. or....knowing there were two graded, a specific grade, and then months later, still seeing two graded, not three. This problem, and resubmissions, I give very little credence to the pop reports. I sure wish this weren't the case. |
#15
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Posted By: Al C.risafulli
I agree with those that have stated that the pop reports are an excellent GAUGE of what's out there, but there are way too many circumstances that would create bad counts. |
#16
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Posted By: Jason L
can you explain that? when you submit the same 38 Goudey with every order as a "control card" what are you looking for that to tell you about the rest of the order? how severely it was graded, relative to other submissions? Sorry, I'm just not following what you mean |
#17
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Posted By: Al C.risafulli
Jason, all it means is that I'm a psycho. |
#18
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Posted By: Scot
The Pops are not perfect. |
#19
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Posted By: Anonymous
psa used to give out a grading voucher or two if you returned a handful or two of "flips".....of course that practice was rather short lived. |
#20
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Posted By: barrysloate
Al- if I understood you correctly and you resubmitted a card that started as a 4, then came back a 3, and finally a 2, and you have experienced this many times, then the grade a card receives is meaningless. If PSA got it wrong two or three times per card, I could do that too, even with one eye closed. The whole thing is just so silly. |
#21
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Posted By: Al C.risafulli
Barry, that particular example is an extreme one, perhaps I didn't articulate it well. It did happen to me, just recently actually, but that's the only yime I've submitted a card four times with four different results. I can't for the life of me see how this happened; the card was a sure-fire 4 and looked better than the 5 I had, so I resubmitted the 4 looking for a 5, and the grade has gotten worse with each submission. There's a big picture of it on my blog: http://www.swingbattaswing.com/page13/page13.html |
#22
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Posted By: Jason
Wow! |
#23
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Posted By: barrysloate
Ideally if you submitted a card and it came back a 4, it should still be a 4 if you resubmitted it ten times. The fact that there is such a high probability of getting a higher or lower grade leaves me distrusting the whole system. If it's that subjective, then you or I or my grandmother could do the same job. I've been saying this for as long as third party grading has been around. |
#24
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Posted By: Tom Boblitt
that if you sent 200 flips back to PSA, they would be removed from the pop reports? You think they have a few data entry people that have this extra time to remove them from the pop reports? Plus.....that removes the entry and the fact they graded something from the DB. The more removed, while more accurate, reduces the 'prestige' of their service. I may be WAY off base (wouldn't be the first time), but I'd be surprised if ANY of the services (except for PRO) work as diligently at their pop services as they could. |
#25
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Posted By: Al C.risafulli
I didn't mean to hijack Bruce's thread with a statement on grading, I was more just giving examples on why pop reports can be inaccurate. But... |
#26
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Posted By: sagard
Pop Reports are a decent tool for mainstream issues with large sample sizes per card. They won't tell the whole story, but often they will give you solid information. |
#27
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Posted By: MVSNYC
i hear what everyone is saying about accuracy of pop reports...i have a thought. now think about this...IF someone cracks open a card, let's say a mint 9...whether or not it still resides in a holder, it has been acknowledged as a mint 9 card by a recognized grading service...so it is still a mint 9 card...even though it has been cracked-out, the card still exists on the planet, but it merely has been shed of its plastic holder...if the pop report before the cracking-open session was 3 (three) mint 9's...does anyone here still believe there are 3 mint 9's...are do you think there are now 2? the third card still is out there, so the pop will remain accurate...NOW, if the flip (which i never understood why it's called a flip, becuase the information is on the front side, not the "flip" side, but that's for another thread) is sent back to the grading company and is removed from the pop report, does that make things accurate by now saying there are 2 mint 9's...when in reality there are 3? food for thought... |
#28
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Posted By: Steve M.
lies in the pop reports being for "graded" cards. For all anyone knows there may be 15 mint 9's out there only three of which have been graded. Once it is released from its entombment it no longer is a "graded" 9 but certainly remains a 9. |
#29
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Posted By: Al C.risafulli
Considering that if the pop report says there are 3 mint 9s in your example, but there are probably umpteen more raw mint cards out there in circulation, I would answer your question "No", the pop report is not accurate. There are now two mint 9s, and umpteen-plus-one raw, mint cards. |
#30
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Posted By: MVSNYC
pop reports obviously just cover "graded" cards, there is no way of determining how many cards are out there raw, OR even if they are authentic & un-altered...just thought it would be an interesting/fun way of looking at the topic... |
#31
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Posted By: Jason L
If there are 3 PSA 9's out there of a certain card, and one is liberated from its holder somewhere during its travels, then there are only 2 PSA 9's out there. |
#32
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Posted By: barrysloate
Would anybody really have the nerve to spring a 9 free of its holder? |
#33
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Posted By: Al C.risafulli
I've done it. I've broken out a few 10s, too. |
#34
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Posted By: barrysloate
I suppose you could pop out a Wade Boggs rookie. How about a 1938 Goudey DiMaggio PSA 9? I'll guess those are always left in their holders. |
#35
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Posted By: Al C.risafulli
I'd never crack a card of that stature, no. |
#36
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Posted By: Brett
I don't see how anyone can take the pop reports seriously because of people cracking the cards out and getting them graded again and again.... |
#37
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Posted By: MVSNYC
the use of "mint 9" in my example, was just that, an example...could've just used a "vg 3" instead...just a hypothetical situation... |
#38
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Posted By: Marc S.
I can't imagine, for example, that many people are cracking out T-206 PSA or SGC 8s. I think, depending on the specific grade you are talking about, you can have more/less confidence in the accuracy of the Population Report. |
#39
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Posted By: Dan Kravitz
Theoretically… Collectors will not crack them out in an 8 or 9 holder, but rather cross over to a favored company with out breaking the case. |
#40
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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman
First off, Al, your blog is hilarious and fun to read. Second, here's a question for the board: what is the most expensive card you've ever paid for that you cracked out and had resubmitted? |
#41
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Posted By: JimCrandell
The pop reports may not be accurate but they are an excellent gauge of relative rarity in high grade in the most popular pre-war and in all 50s and 60s mainstream sets. |
#42
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Posted By: jay wolt
To me the Pop reort has "value" when few cards are graded |
#43
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Posted By: Jason L
so true, but don't you think its far easier to argue that a stock is mispriced than to make that case for a trading card, given the differences in the relative liquidity and available information of the markets in question? |
#44
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Posted By: JimCrandell
I do. |
#45
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Posted By: scott brockelman
I think more of the higher end cards get resubmitted than mid & low grades, reason being most 7,8,9 cards cannot easily be distinguished from the next grade, which is why so many people will roll the dice and try it, this is the essential mentality of slab crackers, whether it be cards or coins. They try to get the "tweener" into the next highest holder. There is no reason to resubmit a 4 or 5 or even a 6 as usually they pretty much look the assigned grade. |
#46
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Posted By: barrysloate
Jim- I agree that there is no question the higher end cards are valued almost solely on their pop reports. However, down the road there may be a greater knowledge among buyers that these numbers may not be accurate. It's unclear however whether that information might adversely affect their value. If a card has a low pop, mentioning that will get you the highest price for sure. In your example, if a common sells for more than a Mantle, then its the pop first, the grade second, and oddly, the player last. |
#47
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Posted By: warshawlaw
If the value of the pop report is in the rarity of the high end cards for the registry builders doesn't it dramatically affect values when cards are resubmitted, thus doubling or tripling the pop? I would also think that it might affect the price a seller could get for his card if someone thinks there are more out there... |
#48
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Posted By: Martin Neal
I know this doesn't mean squat, but I just checked the pop reports and psa registry for Chase white psa 8. The pop report says there are eight graded at this level and I found 7 listed in the psa registry. I only checked the registries that I thought might contain this card and I found 7 listed. I checked this particular card because only because it is the only 8 that I have. |
#49
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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman
Adam's point is well-taken. As an example, for the 55 Topps set, the rarest 8 for the longest time had been Art Fowler. The card had usually sold for about $1500 to $2000; suddenly the pop went up a bit and it is no longer the raretst 8. The price has since dropped to between $1000 to $1250. Who knows if a raw card was recently graded or perhaps someone was trying for a 9 and resubmitted? |
#50
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Posted By: barrysloate
There really should be some way for PSA to distinguish a card submitted for the first time from one that is just being recycled. With so much of the value of a card depending on the pop report, it is imperative that this information be as accurate at possible. At present, nobody has a clue if a card with a pop 8 has eight known examples or four known. |
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