Reading REA...what is the purpose of the "Estimate"?

[Archive]

Posted By: DJ

Mind blowing stuff but what is the significance of the "Estimate" beside the Reserve and does anyone know it's purpose? Is it simply the range or estimation?

I see items that will probably sell for 2x the estimate and some items that will probably sell for 5-7x the estimate. It can't possibly be what they think the items will sell for, can it?

Wow, the PSA1 Roy Thomas e107 is already at more than twice the estimate and I remember an REA some while back where a VG (I believe) was in a small lot.

Mucho Gracias, probably a stupid question.

DJ

[Archive]

Posted By: Dan Kravitz

I think the auction houses feel that if the estimates are low, the bidder might feel that they might get a good deal. That probably encourages more bidding. I rarely see an estimate range set by the auction house sell anywhere near those numbers. They don't make sense and they're bunk!

[Archive]

Posted By: Charlie O'Neal

My best guess is so they can say how many of there auctions sold 50% higher then the estimate. The auctions I am interested in will not even be close to what the estimate is; a mimimum of 2x - 3x there estimate. I wish they would do away with the estiates if they are not going to give realistic ones. Ohter than that, I think they are one of the best auction houses if not the best.

[Archive]

Posted By: Cobby33

I think their estimates are (at least on the T cards) farily realistic. But when you have a 3-week auction and you have bidders blowing their wads, daily, those estimates get blown out of the water.

Same thing happens with eBay, except you only have 1/3 of the time. Why not wait until the end to bid instead of driving the price up for 3 weeks straight?

[Archive]

Posted By: jay behrens

The big difference between eBay and the major auction houses is that you need to bid early so that you can bid in the overtime period. No early bid, no late bids.

Jay

I like to sit outside, drink beer and yell at people. If I did this at home, I would be arrested. So, I go to baseball games and fit right in.

[Archive]

Posted By: Julie Vognar

It does seem to me that I have seen other large auctions where the "estimate" was more in keeping with the final bid...Copeland? Southeby's? (don't think Mastro gives one...or Lipset, or Sloate, or Lealands(?)..ou vcan tell I'm lazy.

[Archive]

Posted By: John S

It is frustrating watching some of the lots creep or explode out my price range; but as Jay said, you have to place a bid early so you can compete at the end. Kind of like taking a number in the deli line but watching the price of the pastrami increase while you wait.

[Archive]

Posted By: Steve

Guess this means that those triple folders I was lusting after will go beyond my reach.


Steve

[Archive]

Posted By: Cobby33

But how early is early? Getting in before the 9:00 p.m. (or whatever time it is) deadline is a lot different than starting a bidding war 3 weeks before the end. I would be willing to bet that a lot of people of who place early bids end up abandonding a particular lot in favor of another one. Sort of like unintentional shilling.

[Archive]

Posted By: jay behrens

There is no bidding war early on. Almost everyone just places the minimum bid and leaves it at that until closing time. There really is no point in bidding until the end once you have the first your first bid in. Lots of bids early just means a lot of interest in that lot.

Jay

I like to sit outside, drink beer and yell at people. If I did this at home, I would be arrested. So, I go to baseball games and fit right in.

[Archive]

Posted By: Cobby33

I think if more people utilized the "watch" feature, we would notice final prices much less (on most items) than with people who aren't serious about the itme.

[Archive]

Posted By: jay behrens

Not sure I follow your reasoning? I'll drop low bids in on lots all the time. Just because I am not willing to bankrupt myself to win an item does not mean that I am not serious. I occasionally end up winning one of the items with what I think is a nominal bid, but no one else thought it was worthwhile or they didn't notice. This why I am able to colelct vintage cards on a burger flipper's budget. I don't over spend for cards. This doesn't mean I'm not a serious bidder or collector.

Jay

I like to sit outside, drink beer and yell at people. If I did this at home, I would be arrested. So, I go to baseball games and fit right in.

[Archive]

Posted By: pete

that i can only afford to actually buy 1 of the items so im watching my list slowly dissappear when the bids go out of range...i have about 4 maybe 5 left to hope for...so stop bidding against me! (just kidding)
pete-

[Archive]

Posted By: Cobby33

Jay: I don't think we disagree. I just tend to think that when people bid on items they know won't go for a nominal bid (as opposed to "watching them"), that it creates the establishment of a higher "floor" for when the "serious bidding" starts closer to the end.

[Archive]

Posted By: jay behrens

bottom bids aren't going to change the final price. That will be determined by what the 2 top dogs are willing to spend. The only thing bottom bidders, if there are a lot of them, is create interest in a lot. If people see a lot of bids, people take notice of that lot and wonder what is so special. eBay used to put a burning match next auctions that had 30 bids or more to denote "hot" auctions.

Jay

I like to sit outside, drink beer and yell at people. If I did this at home, I would be arrested. So, I go to baseball games and fit right in.

[Archive]

Posted By: Cobby33

One could argue then, that with only one serious bidder, their final price would be artifically inflated by several under-bidders who were not serious.

[Archive]

Posted By: jay behrens

Anyone who bids is serious, especially in the major auction auctions. eBay can be a bit of a different story. Once again, I ask, why do you consider someone looking for a bargin not a serious bidder or collector? From what you posted, I assume that to you, the only serious bidder/collectors are the people that spend huge sums of money, and that's jsut not right.

I probably have the smallest budget on the board, but I am also one of the most knowledgable. My lack of money does not make a non-serious bidder or collector.

Jay

I like to sit outside, drink beer and yell at people. If I did this at home, I would be arrested. So, I go to baseball games and fit right in.

[Archive]

Posted By: Cobby33

There are many variables involved in both of our arguments. I have no problem with bargain hunters, as I, myself, don't have loads of money to spend. In this instance, I was referring to T206 cards which are objectively high-end in the REA auction, which unfortunately have absolutely zero chance of being won for anything less than a premium. So- in this instance- the "bargain hunters" (or people who really aren't interested), drive up the price - which is certainly their (perhaps unintentional) right. I was merely making an observation.

Cheers.

[Archive]

Posted By: RC McKenzie

I owe the victor a low low low grade virgiinia extra and i want to make good.


I don't understand this hobby, that's why i have to quit it like cigarettes every year.


Who is bidding 33,000 + on the t213-1 lot on mastro and why do i pick them up for $60 - per on ebay.

it's like what Butch Cassidy said in the movie..., "Who are those guys?
"

[Archive]

Posted By: jay behrens

I still don't see how figure how bargin hunter/early bidders run up the price. All bid below the top 2 bids are inmaterial as these guys would be bidding this much whether anyone bid before them or not.

Jay

I like to sit outside, drink beer and yell at people. If I did this at home, I would be arrested. So, I go to baseball games and fit right in.