Card value estimating

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Posted By: identify7

What seems like a while ago, but isn't, I started to collect pre-Topps cards. I chose the e-mail and eBay handle "identify7" to remind me that in order to make informed purchases I should identify (7) sales of the wanted card, so that I know what to bid.

I didn't realize then that most of the cards which I want would take forever to identify seven successful bids on. And once I achieved that, the earlier bids would no longer be applicable. Heck, many cards which I have purchased and not purchased have appeared on eBay once, twice or never in the past two years.

So I have been using the following method of bid estimating, taken from Julie's approach:

- give yourself up to the force
- guess the value of the card which you want
- add 20%
- add more dependent on how long you have been waiting for the card to appear
- wait 'til the last possible second and place your bid, or use a sniper
- realize that although you have overpaid for your card, at least it is one less that you have to look for. So what if you have to wait a little longer to realize appreciation?

What method do you use?

Edited to add title

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Posted By: tbob

It used to be that you could place a bid which if successful would be a reasonable price to pay and go "wire to wire" with it. There might be some inital bidding against you but bidders could see you were serious and slowly let it go because they didn't want to take the time, trouble and money involved to reach your max bid. Those days are not only numbered, they might be non-existent. With the advent of sniper services, the only advantage of placing an early max bid might be so one of your "card buddies" would see you were after the card and step aside if it were not something they really wanted. Unfortunately lately with a few exceptions if has been Katy bar the door because everyone seems to be after the same cards. Also if you place a large max bid on the front end, there is a chance someone might run you up, just for the sheer enjoyment of it.
I guess the bottom line is to place a small bid on the front end, let it get outbid, set your sniper and pray.

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Posted By: warshawlaw

I snipe practically everything unless it falls into the category of I don't care whether I get it unless it is dirt cheap.

Value is what the market will bear. The books give you an idea of a reasonable ballpark for most items, not a value. Particularly rare items are so far out of whack with any book that the concept is irrelevant. If you are chasing something really scarce or rare, spend what you can to get it because you may not ever see it again.

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Posted By: Chris

Last night I had a chance to bid on a card I wanted very badly for my set. A 1930 Rogers Hornsby , Rogers Peet. I felt out the other bidders and played the game, waited until the last moment, put a bid in that was twice the price I felt comfortable paying and low and behold was outbid. It goes back supply and demand and in this case someone who was willing to pay even more than I. Even at $900 plus I think they got a good deal.

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Posted By: Anson

I don't have too many people bidding on the things that I want. It's always the same two or three names.

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Posted By: Julie

to snipe for me; i never bid early, and i rarely have to change my snipe bid. i mean, i don't whether i should or not

i have found, however, that to win most of the cards i bid on, i have to bid just a little higher than i think i can, or should.