Can anybody explain this?

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Posted By: WP

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&category=57993&item=5200453463&rd=1

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Posted By: Rhett Yeakley

2 WORDS...SET REGISTRY

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Posted By: Scott Elkins

about spending $3k for the two highest graded Croft's Cocoas I have ever seen! Heck, there are literally thousands of T205's for every one Croft's Cocoa card - I don't feel so stupid now at least!

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Posted By: Julie

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Posted By: dennis

i wish i were the seller

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Posted By: J Levine

for a high grade set...That Harmon is one of the more "common" rare variations in the set. Unreal...

Make me wonder if I would grade mine (would grade around a 40-50) and sell it for half that price

-Joshua

T205 prices tend to be all over the place but are going up...

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Posted By: JimCrandell

If you are buying this for the set registry you better be sure it will cross to a psa 8.

I sold a pop 1 psa 8 common not that long ago for a Bresnahan T205 psa 8 plus $3,500(estimated total value $7,000) and I thought that was a pretty good price. Now I am not so sure.

Dav

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Posted By: warshawlaw

cause he sure got ...

A fool and his money were lucky to get together in the first place.

And no, not to say there is anything wrong with the card or the auctioneer (great guy and very reputable); merely the idiocy of paying that much for a card that doesn't have the words Cobb or Young or Mathewson in it.

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Posted By: WP

Maybe the guy collects an SGC set?

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Posted By: Anson

Maybe he'll flake on the transaction.

However, I've seen pure idiocy on Ebay. When sorting for high dollar stuff, I found an Ichiro E-X BGS Pristine 10 bidded up to $15,000 (reserve not met). I would have to say, both seller and high bidder were insane. Anyone who would rather have that card than 3 nice Cobbs has been standing too close to the microwave.

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Posted By: dan mckee

This is the part of the hobby that will collapse one day. This card is not worth near that much, they are buying the number on the label and not the card.

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Posted By: WP

There were several underbidders at similar levels.

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Posted By: DJ

Okay, I hate the set registry. I officially hate it.

Let's say you win a SGC98 of something and you pay like 1000% more than you should. Do you invite your friends over, gather them around your computer and point to the SGC98 and point to the registry in a proud fashion as you are the only on the in the world with a card this nice? Of course you paid $3,000 for a $75 card and don't realize that ungraded examples exist in the same shape in the 'real world'.

I also have a serious problem with seller's using the registry stats as a selling point.

'This is one of four ever graded and only two nicer' and it's a stupid SGC30 of something worth $50. ???????

Okay, I'm done ranting.

DJ

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Posted By: scgaynor

Adam, thanks for the comments, I appreciate them.

As the seller of the card, I thought that it was important to identify how many of these have been graded at that level. Some cards are legitimatly scarce in high grade and it is a key selling point. I don't use much "fluff" in my descriptions, but I do mention the population of a card if it is very low.

Scott

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Posted By: DJ

Scott, my comments were not directed at you. That was a great card and congratulations on the fine price! It was directed at seller's with everyday items of little value that people don't even bother slabbing and therefore the population is low. I believe one seller a year ago was hyping up a 'rare' graded Shakey's Pizza card of Hank Greeneberg and bringing forth statitstics on the 'rarity' of that particular card.

DJ

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Posted By: scgaynor

DJ, I agree 100%. The carnival barker approach to selling is just plain tacky and most people see right through it. In the short term it might help sellers get a better price, but in the long run you lose crediblity with the people that matter.

Scott

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Posted By: will watson

"This is the part of the hobby that will collapse one day. This card is not worth near that much, they are buying the number on the label and not the card."

there were three bidders over $4k, and two well over $5.5k. cards are "worth" whatever someone will pay for them....and since someone bought this card at public auction for almost $6k, i would say that's a pretty good indicator of real world value. just because you collect low or midgrade cards that are relatively stable in value, and you obviously dislike the competitive aspect of the Registry, doesn't give you the right to make a judgment about people who pay high prices for "low pop" cards.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Why does it make any difference whose picture is on it? The card is a condition scarcity. low pop pre-war cards have continued to rise in high grade because there are very very few in high grade.

There are a ton of collectors trying to put vintage sets together in high grade--the number is growing all the time--and the supply of high grade cards is not.

Growing demand and stable low supply usually means rising prices and I suspect that will be the case with low pop cards from this set for some time.

Dav

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Posted By: DJ

Pop Quiz...Six Questions....Board Chime In!

1) Are you purchasing this card because:

a) It's rare and you like unique and one of a kind things (and have the cash).
b) You are a fan of Harmon's (or relative)
c) You have the other Harmon and thought it would make a nice companion
d) You are completing a NM set of T205's and need it?
e) You don't know anything about this card and think in ten years it will be worth twice as much?

2) If the Harmon card (using this as an example) showed up on eBay in ungraded form, would you still be interested in it?

3) Would you pay $4K or $5K for it in ungraded form?

4) If this card didn't have a registry attached to it, would you bid on it?

5) Would you pay that kind of money if 30 or 40 people had that card and that kind of grade?

6) Don't you think there are versions of this card (or ones that can relate in this argument)in private collections that we don't know about that will NEVER make the registry that are even better?

DJ

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Posted By: will watson

1. D

2. if it was guaranteed unaltered and guaranteed to come back from PSA or SGC as the same grade as it's described as, yes

3. yes, if the same requirements as #2 are met. face it, if you buy a card that is described as nmmt for the same price as a PSA 8, and it comes back graded lower, you stand to lose a lot of money.

4. yes. i couldn't care less about the Registry.

5. yes.

6. probably, but who cares? if they're in private collections, odds are they wont come into circulation for a long time. in effect, they don't exist to the buying public.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

as a passionate collector of a large number of graded sets I will take a shot.

1)d
2)no
3)no
4)yes
5)no--low pop gives it the value
6)probably not--I find that most ungraded copies that collectors think are psa 8s or sgc88s are not.

I know Joshnoga well(an underbidder) and he has many high grade pre-war sets. I would guess that all 3 high bidders are putting the set together or at least attempting to in nrmt-mt.

Dav

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Posted By: dan mckee

Sorry Will, I didn't mean to offend you but, anyone paying $4K for a card that books for $1100 in NM is buying the slab number and not the card. My opinion, is that one day, the "outrageously high" investing will leave the hobby, and this card will be worth $1100 to a real collector. The "low pop" is a complete joke. Again my opinion. And you obviously do not know me, I have many many very nice, NM to MINT cards that will not see slabs while I am breathing so you are wrong about what grade I collect. Yes VG is fine with me but since I have been collecting since 1969, I haven't just bought VG. If that card was to be popped out and sold, what would it bring? $600 maybe $800 ? Are you telling me the plastic slab is worth the $5K difference? The bidders are buying the number on the slab, not the card. Dan.

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Posted By: will watson

Dan,

no offense taken. i didn't mean to come off as a jackass. to me, paying ridiculous prices for for the sole purpose of increasing your Registry points is silly. if you want to pay 6 grand for a card because you collect ultra high grade prewar, then fine. but buying the holder, or the grade weight, in my opinion is stupid.

however, i disagree with your argument about it's $1100 book value. it annoys me to no end when people use price guides as a bible. they're guides, and they're often terribly inaccurate. for example, i still have boxes and boxes of modern insert/game used/autographed cards. the "book value" is probably somewhere around $5000. several months ago, i decided to list the entire lot on ebay with a $500 starting bid. it closed unsold. i couldn't even get 10% of the book value for em. granted, this was modern, overproduced junk, but it still shows how far out of touch price guides really are. on the flip side, i'm about to purchase an N162 Caruthers PSA 3 for $700. i had no idea what to offer, so i glanced at the SMR- it told me commons in PSA 4 booked for around $250. didn't turn me off of the card at all, i'm happy to pay $700 for it, even though the SMR price guide is telling me i'm paying way too much. and this isn't even a "low pop" card.

i think ebay is probably the most accurate way to gauge card values. why? because ebay is the great equalizer. everyone is on ebay, and it's the most visible auction site in the world. i still look at major auction house results (Mastro, Lelands, et al) with a grain of salt. i think oftentimes, closing prices will be inflated because of the "glamour" that comes with buying something from a prestigious auction house. similarly, (and i'm kind of guessing here, as i have no clue about the jewelry industry), i bought a silver necklace for an ex girlfriend for $100 bucks from one of the mall dealers, i think Zales. the EXACT same necklace was being sold at Tiffany and Co. for $400. i guess the prestige and honor that comes with buying a necklace from Tiffany's is worth the extra 300 bones. that's how i view auction houses vs. ebay.

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Posted By: dan mckee

Hey no sweat Will, your points are well taken and I can agree with most. The guides are just guides as you say. I consider them more acurate on cards that are not super rare. That card is not rare to me, it is more rare in top condition than in any other condition, but still not rare enough to deviate far from the guide in my opinion. It is also from a well known series that is heavily collected and has been for years so I do not believe the guide is that far off on this one. I agree that ebay is the best guide there is but it changes like the weather and if you get 2 bidders that really want something, than that piece can go sky high. The next time the same piece comes up, it may go for 3 times as less. We can argue til the cats come home on this one but I still say that raw, that card doesn't break 3 digits. So the fact that a person slabbed it a very high number, makes it worth several thousand more, just doesn't make any sense to me. My Best, dan.

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Posted By: leon

Guides are nonsense when it comes to a lot of the stuff we collect. I can tell you that I will never sell (or be able to buy) as low as the guide on a lot of the stuff that Dan and I collect. Case in point. Last year at the National I sold some really, really nice Zeenuts with coupons....all were graded about 20-40 but looked nrmt. They really did. I sold them for about $400-$500 each to a board member and very knowledgable collector. No way in heck were those things going to be sold anywhere close to the guide. As for Ebay I agree with Dan on that issue too. Let a really scarce, high demand, card come out and see where the price goes. Another of the same card 2 weeks later will generally go for far less....So even ebay is not perfect....mostly it's timing....regards

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Posted By: barrysloate

Nearly everyone in this thread has defended the scarcity of high grade vintage baseball cards and that therefore they have nowhere to go but up. As a homeowner who has seen my house skyrocket in value in the six years since we bought it, I am certainly paying attention to all the news reports that suggest the housing market may be a bubble waiting to burst. And everybody needs a place to live; nobody technically needs baseball cards. Does anybody else feel like I do that the vintage card market may just be a bubble ready to burst? Low pop or not, if the economy goes through any radical changes baseball cards may not seem very important. As we often say, they are only cardboard. Am I the only one who feels this way?

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Posted By: Anson

On that note, I will pay SMR prices for any caramels you guys have to offer!!!

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Posted By: Brian Lindholme

Wonderful conversation about the "bubble" being burst on the vintage market we all love. I guess Barry was referencing a true "house of cards" in his comment about real estate prices skyrocketing...
I don't think either houses or cards are likely to stop climbing in value anytime soon, but gosh...I have to think there is a limit SOMEWHERE !

I am not a trained economist, but this seems simple : When wages do not increase at the same level as the items we either need or want to purchase, the madness will eventually have to end.

Look around, it's not just baseball cards and houses that are selling for higher prices...I paid about double the price I would usually expect for a head of LETTUCE yesterday. If it went to triple the expected cost, I would have to reconsider my turkey sandwiches without it. I don't get paid 3X (or even 2X) what I did last year when a gallon of OJ (Orange juice for those of you so deep in admiration over Old Judges that you forgot only set me back half as much. It is everywhere...Why, my trash collector just announced a price increase, so I have to hang onto my 1991 Donruss a little longer!

My long-winded point is this...

Sooner or later no one will be able to afford ANYTHING if the prices don't stop going up. I wish that Old Baseball Cards would remain affordable, and luckily I can still add to my collection periodically, but I couldn't afford to buy my own house again, and the 8 yr old car is being asked to hang in there a couple more years. It's madness !
Ah...let's enjoy our hobby while we can.

Brian

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Posted By: Scott Elkins

However, I am with Anson on this one! If the caramel bubble does burst, I will be selling all of my collectibles other than caramel cards (guns, coins, antiques, etc.) and appearing at every show I can find with cash in hand to BUY every caramel being sold (I would say Pete, Tbob, Dan, Anson, Leon and several other board members will be there at the entrance as well - it would be a dream come true for us true collectors - although, sometimes I think Leon will be a dealer some day - just kidding Leon!).

EVERY time I list in the B/S/T thread that I am buying Croft's Cocoas, I get ZERO people wanting to sell. However, I am bombarded with e-mails from people wanting to buy caramels - not only Cocoas, but E90-1's, E98's, E94's, etc. etc.). Many of them are newbies and lurkers. I am actually surprised at how many people who are now collecting caramels (mostly due to this board!).

In fact, I sold a nice SGC E90-1 Cy Young Cleveland today to a nice gentleman who is starting to collect vintage cards. His statement to me was that he has learned a lot from this board and would like to buy some nice caramels, b/c he does not want the more plentiful T206's and T205's. T206's and T205's are great (I own several of each, and have owned tens of thousands over the years). However, I do not see caramels going down any time soon. AND, I am still buying Croft's Cocoas in ANY condition for 3x on up of the SCD value (in case anybody who wants to sell is reading).

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Posted By: barrysloate

Of course nobody knows for sure if there is a bubble, but should there be one, don't worry about how hard it is to find rare cards. They will be out there for sale. I've seen the cycle happen several times over the years.

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Posted By: DJ

I'm with Barry on this one. When it comes to Stocks, you know (and knew) there was going to be a burst in the bubble. Internet companies who weren't making a profit were going up 10 percent each day. Companies like Corning, CMGI, JDS Uniphase and such. We knew they were bursting because we saw the Stock ticker and the down arrows and the amount we could not cash them in for were a lot lower. How would we know that the Bubble would burst? Would every one be notified at once? Would every one start selling on a day instead of buying and those Cocoa cards will suddenly find themselves on the B/S/T thread? Cards increase in value. There's no question about that and the history shows it. The Robert Harmon left ear variation booked at $30 in 1981 and in 1991, $250. Are we to think that card will be worth $30K in ten years? But what you are seeing here is pure madness --I believe. Slabbings, Registries, EBay and the $$$ Potential has caused so much interest that it simply can't continue.

DJ

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Posted By: dan mckee

I consider the Caramel cards much scarcer than the tobacco cards. I guess all adults smoked back then and mainly kids bought the candies so less survived. One of my regrets was not collecting the caramel sets in the 70s and early 80s, I should have put these sets together instead of the tobacco or with the tobacco. I will not be able to do it now, they are just too expensive and popular, rightfully so in my opinion. Dan.

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Posted By: identify7

During the eighties and before, you could buy any prewar card and find that very desirable appreciation of its value was realized. Since that time however, things have been different. Not every prewar purchase has exhibited desireable (from a pure investment standpoint) growth in value.

Specifically, cards from the 40s, 30s, and many from the twenties, and several from the teens have not doubled in value every seven years. Numerous cards in higher grades still appear to be fully priced.

Certainly rarer cards have done well, as have nineteenth century issues. But many t206s, goudeys, playballs, and others have not performed nearly as strongly as their previous history indicated they may.

So what is the better current investment choice? Is it better to get on the bandwagon of the cards which have performed well since the nineties, or is it accurate that those current weaker performers are poised for renewed vigor?

In my view, the bubble has burst; since you can no longer just buy any prewar card and expect strong appreciation.

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Posted By: barrysloate

DJ made some good points and I think that when you discuss a bubble it's not about whether Croft's Cocoa or E94's will be any less rare- they would be rare in a bubonic plague. What a bursting of the bubble means is that the huge sums of money that are being funneled into the hobby could dry up, and that would trickle down to all areas of the market. If the economy tanks, many wealthy people might need to sell their holdings and the buyer/seller ratio will shift.
There was a story that made the headlines recently that a major retirement fund had put $50 million into rare coins as a hedge for the fund. The actual story was that many of the coins were stolen; but that's not the point I'm trying to make. Are millions of dollars being put into the baseball memorabilia market also purely for investment? What if that money starts to exit due to a weak economy? The whole market would be affected, and it would have absolutely nothing to do with whether certain E-cards are tough to find. We are seeing certain cards and the like double and triple in the blink of an eye; REA had a few high profile lots that went through the roof. If the big money leaves the hobby will those cards retain their value? As I said earlier, if the stories we are hearing about a burst in the real estate bubble turn out to be true, then baseball cards aren't far behind. It's not about the collector still trying to find a few rare type cards; it's about the state of the economy, and the economy always goes through peaks and valleys.

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Posted By: tbob

There are a lot of us with complete T205 sets out there who have never had a single one of the cards graded and yet many are NRMT. Just a word of warning to those taking a flyer on expensive slabbed cards thinking that because of the low pop reports there aren't beautiful cards out there unslabbed (for now).

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Posted By: warshawlaw

"Never wrong, only early"

Maybe cards will correct; odds are they will not later on.

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Posted By: JimB

I think the baseball card market is just now recovering from the economic slump of the beginning of this decade. Caramels and OJs have been on the rise for more than a year, but I think the market in general has just started recovering in the last 6 months or so. Price on T206s for example, were stagnant for about 3 years. Card prices swing with the economy in general, and my view is that the economy is just starting to pull out of a 4 year slump.
JimB

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Posted By: JimCrandell

I think you guys are placing too much emphasis on the role of the economy in determining sportscard pricing. Vintage sportscard demand and pricing, particularly at the high end are driven by guys with a lot of disposable income and these peoples purchases are relatively immune to changes in the economy.
The big thing that has driven vintage sportscard prices over the last decade is the advent of third party grading. I can't tell you the number of people who now feel confident buying high-end vintage sportscards again because they believe that this verifies that the cards have not been tampered with. The fact that some altered cards are getting by the graders is besides the point. Many collectors had gibven up on vintage sportscad collecting in the early-to-mid 90s because of card alteration. That these buyers are coming bback into the market with confidence I believe is the big driving factor behind vintage card value escalation.

Secondly, as I have stated, I am skeptical that there is a lot of prewar product out there ungraded in nrmt-mt(PSA 8 or SGC 88) condition. Thus I do not see the big escalation in prices for PSA 8 or SGC 88 pre-war sportscards as a bubble. Maybe I am wrong but for those of you that have them, lets see pictures.

Dav

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Posted By: DJ

The number of millionaires in the U.S. increased to a record last year, boosted by gains in stocks and global financial markets, according to two new studies. 8.5 million 'millionaires'. I'm going through the Want Ads as we speak looking for an occupation that perhaps pays me seven figures to start in an entry level position. I'm spectacular at 'data entry'.

Are these the people who are paying $500 for our $100 cards? Are they paying $5,000 for $1,000 cards? So what becomes of them in the future? Will this continue to grow? Will there be $10 million 'millionaires' next year? Will that $5,000 card today be worth $15,000 next year? Is the e92 the new Faberge egg?

In three years, will I be down to one purchase every single year...maybe a M101-5 of Gus Getz in PSA Negative -1 condition, trimmed, cut in half, folded into a paper football, written on (the original owner thought he looked like Hollywood hunk Dick Powell) and colored in with a charcoal pencil for $920 and I'll bitch and moan about the shipping.

(sigh)

DJ
Disgruntled Collector