Hypothetical on Joe Jackson

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Posted By: Kenny Cole

As I understand it from Bill James' books on the HOF, the way the HOF was originally set up, there was supposed to be a veterans group as well as a 1900's group. Cy Young wasn't elected the first year because he split the vote. Had Cy Young only had to contend with Matty and Walter Johnson, I think, based on what I know, that he probably would have supplanted Johnson because I think he had less votes than Matty - And yes, as I understand it, the original voting was limited to 5 members - 5 post 1900, 5 pre-1900. I may be wrong, but I don't think so.

So, we get to Shoeless Joe. He was a tremendous hitter in the dead ball era -- hit a bunch of triples, had power even then. Allegedly, Ruth modeled his swing after him.

Zack Wheat was a very good, not great, hitter in the dead ball era. Right or wrong, I tend to view his skill set as being somewhat comperable to, but much less than, Jackson's. Wheat took great advantage of the advent of the live ball. That's what got him elected to the HOF. I tend to think that Jackson would have taken much greater advantage. He was a touch older and may have faded earlier (although he played in semi-pro leagues into his '50s), but I'm guessing at least 10 more years absent the expulsion because he was a fitness fanatic. I have no reason to believe that his batting average would substantially decline during most of that period, so I can't downgrade him for that.

As I recall, the initial voting placed Cobb first, Ruth and Wagner tied, Matty, then Johnson. Had Jackson continued to play at the level he played after the time he was banished, I think there is a fair argument to be made that he at supplants Johnson and kicks him to 1937. It's all academic and doesn't matter, but I really do think that Jackson was the sort of ballplayer, much more than Cobb or Speaker, who would have thrived in the 1920's. I don't think he supplants Cobb, Ruth or Wagner, but I'm not sure he doesn't move Matty or Johnson out of the way. Doesn't matter now. Too bad.