Poll - The Stock Market and Vintage Sales

OhioLawyerF5 · #1 03-11-2025, 09:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Ai disagrees, FWIW.

While it's difficult to pinpoint an exact percentage of employees with stock-based compensation (SBC), nearly three-quarters (72%) of companies offer some form of equity compensation to certain employees, up from 65% in 2021. This suggests that a significant portion of the workforce is receiving some form of stock compensation.

So "some form" is the same as "significant portion of their income?" Those aren't the same to me. Maybe AI needs to do better.

Receiving some form of stock compensation doesn't mean an employee's available spending is dependent on that compensation either.

Snowman · #2 03-12-2025, 07:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

So "some form" is the same as "significant portion of their income?" Those aren't the same to me. Maybe AI needs to do better.

Receiving some form of stock compensation doesn't mean an employee's available spending is dependent on that compensation either.

Depends on which cohort of the hobby you're talking about. There's a fairly large percentage of collectors who only collect low value cards and whose purchasing decisions have almost no effect on the broader market. But if we're talking about how the card market as a whole might fare during an economic downturn, then we have to look at the cohort of buyers that are purchasing cards of significant value. And those cards are mostly being purchased by people in their 40s and up with good jobs that often include some form of significant compensation through company stocks or by retired collectors with large bank accounts. In other words, it may not be a large percentage of the hobby as a whole that receives a significant chunk of their income from stocks, but it's certainly one of the most impactful cohorts with respect to pricing fluctuations across the market.

OhioLawyerF5 · #3 03-12-2025, 07:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snowman

Depends on which cohort of the hobby you're talking about. There's a fairly large percentage of collectors who only collect low value cards and whose purchasing decisions have almost no effect on the broader market. But if we're talking about how the card market as a whole might fare during an economic downturn, then we have to look at the cohort of buyers that are purchasing cards of significant value. And those cards are mostly being purchased by people in their 40s and up with good jobs that often include some form of significant compensation through company stocks or by retired collectors with large bank accounts. In other words, it may not be a large percentage of the hobby as a whole that receives a significant chunk of their income from stocks, but it's certainly one of the most impactful cohorts with respect to pricing fluctuations across the market.

It's an interesting question to consider. I'd love to see a poll.

But I suspect the number who are actually using stocks as a significant/major source of income (and aren't retired) isn't that high. But who knows? 40s and up with good jobs doesn't scream "relying on stock dividends/sales" to me. I'd guess those people tend to use salary compensation for cash flow, and investments for future cash flow. I know I'm in that group of 40s and up with a good job, and I never touch a penny from my investments and live off my salary. All my card money comes from this income stream. Maybe I'm in the minority of the group of 40s and up with a good job. :shrug: But given the responses here, I don't believe I am.

jingram058 · #4 03-12-2025, 08:59 AM

I stayed in the Navy for 26 years, and I get a darned good pension, supplemented by modest Social Security and a state pension. I guess any or all of these could be cut at some point, but our house and new cars are paid for. No bills other than the ones you have to have. I can afford to buy expensive pre-war cards, but I already have the ones I really want, and I can't see spending that kind of money for cards, and that's not incumbent on the stock market or the economy.

raulus · #5 03-12-2025, 09:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jingram058

I stayed in the Navy for 26 years, and I get a darned good pension, supplemented by modest Social Security and a state pension. I guess any or all of these could be cut at some point.

Thank you for your service!

In terms of your cash flow sources, I guess the Biebs taught us to "never say never", but this might be one of the exceptions to that rule. Hard to imagine a scenario where any of those sources gets cut. I could see some tinkering with how they are taxed, and certainly changes for future recipients are always possible, but I think you're pretty safe, James.

Even with the looming exhaustion of the social security trust fund sometime in the next decade, give or take, and the concomitant theoretical 30% benefit cut, I'm incredibly skeptical that such an outcome will actually happen.

View Poll Results: Do the stock market losses play into your vintage buys?
Yes	95	25.33%
No	230	61.33%
Sometimes	50	13.33%
Voters: 375. You may not vote on this poll

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