OT: Paul Skenes Rookie Card Search

[Rich Klein]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

https://goldin.co/item/2024-topps-ch...JkSW5kZXgiOjB9

That is NOT the card with tbe bounty. The card with the bounty is the debut game patch card (or whatever the formal name is)

Rich

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

Someone posted this on Facebook and people are going crazy !! How much is something like this worth ??

]

Watch the superfractor goldin has listed. Whatever that sells for, I would expect this to bring at least 80% of that.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Rich Klein

The Patch card has not yet been pulled that we know of and nor has the 1/1 autograph of LeBron, Steph and KD from the Topps Now Olympic set.

I don’t think Topps sat on the triple signed because it was a Topps Now release. I am positive it’s out there but has either privately sold or someone is keeping it quiet and waiting for the right time. Unless USPS really lost a big one this time, lol.

[JustinD]

This one double posted.

[Rich Klein]

Originally Posted by JustinD

I don’t think Topps sat on the triple signed because it was a Topps Now release. I am positive it’s out there but has either privately sold or someone is keeping it quiet and waiting for the right time. Unless USPS really lost a big one this time, lol.

That is NOT an implication, just a statement of fact the triple auto has either not been pulled yet or it has and is kept quiet. Same for the Skenes card in question.

Rich

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by Rich Klein

That is NOT the card with tbe bounty. The card with the bounty is the debut game patch card (or whatever the formal name is)

Rich

Yes, this is not the patch. That's pretty clear. I thought it was pretty comparable to the superfractor card posted in the thread.

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

I'd put money on that card, or the box/case that card was likely not-so-randomly inserted into, being in the vault of the card company. People have to buy more product first! I can't possibly believe anything else. The longer it takes to be pulled, the more this theory makes sense.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by BillyCoxDodgers3B

I'd put money on that card, or the box/case that card was likely not-so-randomly inserted into, being in the vault of the card company. People have to buy more product first! I can't possibly believe anything else. The longer it takes to be pulled, the more this theory makes sense.

I'm with you. I mean if it was pulled within a few days of product release, and some guy posted it on youtube, it would defeat the whole point.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by BillyCoxDodgers3B

I'd put money on that card, or the box/case that card was likely not-so-randomly inserted into, being in the vault of the card company. People have to buy more product first! I can't possibly believe anything else. The longer it takes to be pulled, the more this theory makes sense.

There's a great documentary on Netflix I think about the McDonalds monopoly game fraud. If this hasn't gone on over the years with these chase cards at least occasionally I'd eat my hat. Or 10 hats.

[Rich Klein]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I'm with you. I mean if it was pulled within a few days of product release, and some guy posted it on youtube, it would defeat the whole point.

That's not true on the Topps Now 1/1. Those are all shipped when issued and it's not like pack pulled cards.

And the card not being pulled really does not do Topps/Fanatics any good. The conspiracy theories will become they did not insert the card into a pack/box/case etc. The last thing any card company needs is that type of publicity.

[packs]

It’s not like the Skenes card still being live is unique to the Skenes card. There are many big cards that have yet to be hit.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by Rich Klein

That's not true on the Topps Now 1/1. Those are all shipped when issued and it's not like pack pulled cards.



And the card not being pulled really does not do Topps/Fanatics any good. The conspiracy theories will become they did not insert the card into a pack/box/case etc. The last thing any card company needs is that type of publicity.

I believe the Topps Now triple auto was in a pack. They were silver packs that were sent out with a redemption for the 1/1 auto. The packs were selling on ebay for like $2k. So while I doubt it, it's possible it wasn't pulled.

[Schlesinj]

Was pulled today by an 11 year old in LA.

I think that is good news all around.

[packs]

I wonder what kind of product it was hit out of. Hobby or retail. A surprising amount of big cards end up being hit in retail boxes and packs.

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by Schlesinj

Was pulled today by an 11 year old in LA.

I think that is good news all around.

Yep! Congrats to him!!

[Rich Klein]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

Yep! Congrats to him!!

The young man just got handed a nice cushion for his college years. And, I think about a week ago or so, I heard that less than 30 percent of the debut patches had been pulled. Someone keeps track of those things so that is where the percent number came from.

I hope this puts the conspiracy theories to bed for a while.

Rich

[ASF123]

Originally Posted by Schlesinj

Was pulled today by an 11 year old in LA.

I think that is good news all around.

Not necessarily. Just announced that the Dodgers have bought the card for $18 million, with $15 million deferred for 10 years.

[BioCRN]

Last I saw they were running around $15/pack (4 cards)...$500+ for a hobby box.

We got some high rolling 11 year olds out there.

[packs]

Like I said a lot of big cards come out of retail. Some huge hits on the NBA side have come from cello packs at Walmart that are like $10.

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by packs

Like I said a lot of big cards come out of retail. Some huge hits on the NBA side have come from cello packs at Walmart that are like $10.

That makes sense to me. If retail product didn't occasionally yield high-dollar cards, people wouldn't pursue it so...aggressively.

[bmattioli]

Just like huge Lotto winners another Cali hit..

[MVSNYC]

I think the most coveted (and best chance to pull something big) option comes via a jumbo box (3 autos guaranteed, plus lots of other numbered parallels). My son and I have opened 2 boxes, and we have a 3rd one that we'll likely rip soon (considering box prices will drop now)...we really enjoy opening modern boxes.

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

Hoping it's just a bad photo, but it sure looks like a scribble that was signed three seconds ago has already started to fade considerably.

[pawpawdiv9]

Kid declined the mlb 30 yr tickets
Instead auction it off by Fanatics collect in March

[butchie_t]

I’m happy to see that this card was found by a kid verses a danged bunch of people doing one of those case breaks.

I hope the bidders go loopy and the kid gets a huge pile of loot for that card.

Butch

[pawpawdiv9]

Yeah- forgot to add that all proceeds go to the LA fires �� it said

[packs]

I heard that the kid who pulled the card may be the son of a very popular breaker. But I don’t know if it’s true.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by pawpawdiv9

Yeah- forgot to add that all proceeds go to the LA fires �� it said

100% of the proceeds? Or just Fanatics' commission?

[pawpawdiv9]

It on mlb.com
Says All proceeds

[Eric72]

As I understand it, whereas it pertains to auctions, the term "all proceeds" would typically mean the profit realized by the auctioneer.

Hypothetically, let's imagine the item sells for $1,200,000. Let's further imagine the BP is 20% and the consignor gets $1,000,000. In this particular example, "all proceeds" would equate to $200,000 minus any expenses incurred by the auction house.

So, the donation would be significant; however, it wouldn't be the entire hammer price.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by pawpawdiv9

It on mlb.com
Says All proceeds

The article I had read said that Fanatics said their proceeds would be donated and the journalist took that to mean 100% of the proceeds. My hunch is the 11 year old kid is not donating 100%, if any, of his proceeds.

[PhillyFan1883]

I don’t blame the kid for auctioning the card.

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by ASF123

Not necessarily. Just announced that the Dodgers have bought the card for $18 million, with $15 million deferred for 10 years.

Funny.

But, don't hate the player, hate the game.

[z28jd]

This whole offer from the Pirates has led to the dumbest reactions from people over the last few days. When the Pirates made the offer, it was getting shared everywhere. I had numerous family members who don't even follow baseball write me and ask me about it. I couldn't avoid it for the first two weeks because I search for Pirates news twice daily. I used to cover the team, mostly the minor league system, for 15 years. I still do occasionally for a friend's site, so I still search news daily.

Anyway, ever since the news came that the kid turned down the Pirates offer, I have seen over 1,000 (literally, not just throwing out a high number) responses that say something like "why would they offer that to an 11-year-old from LA?".

This was a huge story in November that apparently 99% of baseball fans missed. These people really think that the Pirates heard an 11-year-old in LA won it and THEN offered him 30 years of season tickets.

If I somehow didn't hear the original story, I would spend a few minutes searching the internet before I asked a stupid question for all to see. Common sense would say that can't be right, but these people are just all in on group asking a dumb question over and over and over...

[Snapolit1]

No one can tell me that Topps didn't knowingly sit on this card for months and release it into the market at a particular time. The hysteria around this chase card leds to tens (hundreds?) of millions of sales for them. These boxes were going to $800 to $1500. Had this card been "discovered" a few days after they went on sale it would have cost them boku bucks and been a marketing disaster.

[SyrNy1960]

Originally Posted by snapolit1

no one can tell me that topps didn't knowingly sit on this card for months and release it into the market at a particular time. The hysteria around this chase card leds to tens (hundreds?) of millions of sales for them. These boxes were going to $800 to $1500. Had this card been "discovered" a few days after they went on sale it would have cost them boku bucks and been a marketing disaster.

+ 100

[Schlesinj]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

No one can tell me that Topps didn't knowingly sit on this card for months and release it into the market at a particular time. The hysteria around this chase card leds to tens (hundreds?) of millions of sales for them. These boxes were going to $800 to $1500. Had this card been "discovered" a few days after they went on sale it would have cost them boku bucks and been a marketing disaster.

I was talking with my local card shop owner yesterday about this generally. First, all of the boxes have been long gone for a while. It could be due to this card but it also has other strong rookies.

He mentioned to me about some soccer boxes he bought for his three shops that had some big time soccer card in it. The big card was found in pre-release. Box value dropped dramatically and they can barely move them.

I think these hobby shops get distribution and they are pre-sold pretty quickly via Fanatics. Yes, breakers and flippers and markup occurs, but not sure a full conspiracy is happening.

[z28jd]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

No one can tell me that Topps didn't knowingly sit on this card for months and release it into the market at a particular time. The hysteria around this chase card leds to tens (hundreds?) of millions of sales for them. These boxes were going to $800 to $1500. Had this card been "discovered" a few days after they went on sale it would have cost them boku bucks and been a marketing disaster.

The kid opened the card packs on Christmas Day, so obviously it was purchased before then and sent out by Topps even earlier. It was only announced as found in the last week, but that wasn't the day the kid got it

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

No one can tell me that Topps didn't knowingly sit on this card for months and release it into the market at a particular time. The hysteria around this chase card leds to tens (hundreds?) of millions of sales for them. These boxes were going to $800 to $1500. Had this card been "discovered" a few days after they went on sale it would have cost them boku bucks and been a marketing disaster.

LOLOLOLOLOL

The kid told you in his journal entry. The box the card came out of was purchased after just after Black Friday, 2 weeks after the product was released.

[Republicaninmass]

The shoe shine boy at grand central station told.me he bought a few boxes.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

The shoe shine boy at grand central station told.me he bought a few boxes.

You should check back with him and see if he too pulled one of these 1/1 cards...then we will have a conspiracy we can really pursue.

[Gary Dunaier]

Here are a couple of articles from The Athletic about the card.

Paul Skenes MLB Debut Patch controversy explained: The card, the bounties and the backlash

The Athletic also interviewed the boy who pulled the card.

Meeting the 11-year-old collector who pulled the Paul Skenes MLB Debut Patch: ‘I was shocked’

[packs]

This product is stacked and Skenes isn't the only chase. I would be very surprised if there was any drop in price for these boxes. There are still big MLB debut patch cards that have yet to be found. Yamamoto, Merril and Evan Carter's patches are still live.

The Chrome Update set is the only option for anyone to pull a Skenes flagship Topps rookie card too.

Product has a lot going for it even without the Skenes patch being live.

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

No one can tell me that Topps didn't knowingly sit on this card for months and release it into the market at a particular time. The hysteria around this chase card leds to tens (hundreds?) of millions of sales for them. These boxes were going to $800 to $1500. Had this card been "discovered" a few days after they went on sale it would have cost them boku bucks and been a marketing disaster.

I posted this right away. Anyone who believes otherwise, I know a guy who has a minty fresh Frank Chance and some other big cards.

[Snapolit1]

Seems like in the matter of a few weeks the card is opened by an 11 year old, sent to Topps, floated to multiple auction houses, sent to PSA, and earmarked immediately for an auction. Record speed all around.

I will remain a bit skeptical.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Seems like in the matter of a few weeks the card is opened by an 11 year old, sent to Topps, floated to multiple auction houses, sent to PSA, and earmarked immediately for an auction. Record speed all around.

I will remain a bit skeptical.

You don't send it to Topps. You scratch the back and input a code online. Part of the promotion was what they called "White Glove Treatment." They flew someone there to take it and personally submit it to PSA. From there, PSA did same day service. None of these things takes much time at all. In fact, the longest delay was due to evacuations of the family. The whole process with Topps and PSA took a couple days at the most.

EDIT to add: The family shopped around at auctio houses prior to redeeming it. It appears from the timeline that they actually redeemed the card on January 3rd, after pulling it on Christmas.

[packs]

I don't understand the skepticism. Topps wants the card to get pulled more than anything. It's major publicity. All of the product is already sold to retailers and breakers before it even gets released. Even if it got pulled on day one all of the product in the market now was already sold. There is nothing gained in holding the product. It's already sold out. It hasn't been available on the Topps site since it's pre-release.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Seems like in the matter of a few weeks the card is opened by an 11 year old, sent to Topps, floated to multiple auction houses, sent to PSA, and earmarked immediately for an auction. Record speed all around.

I will remain a bit skeptical.

Easy to be skeptical when one lacks details or facts pertaining to a situation.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Eric72

As I understand it, whereas it pertains to auctions, the term "all proceeds" would typically mean the profit realized by the auctioneer.

Hypothetically, let's imagine the item sells for $1,200,000. Let's further imagine the BP is 20% and the consignor gets $1,000,000. In this particular example, "all proceeds" would equate to $200,000 minus any expenses incurred by the auction house.

So, the donation would be significant; however, it wouldn't be the entire hammer price.

Donating the entire thing would be a drop in the bucket and great publicity for Fanatics.

[Snapolit1]

You don’t think the insane explosion in pricing of these boxes for months on end in the secondary market and all the publicity the Skenes card engendered — sports stories in The NY Times, local news, and everywhere else — was valuable to Topps as a brand? Their business model is fueled by the mania surrounding these overpriced chase card products. While all the products were sold on day 1, the phenomena of people breaking boxes and reselling product at huge markups is essential to their business model. And just got an unprecedented level of publicity.

Like a beautiful singer wearing a fancy dress or piece of jewelry to the Grammys. It’s all about marketing the brand.


QUOTE=packs;2493274]I don't understand the skepticism. Topps wants the card to get pulled more than anything. It's major publicity. All of the product is already sold to retail and breakers before it even gets released. Even if it got pulled on day one all of the product in the market now was already sold. There is nothing gained in holding the product. It's already sold out. It hasn't been available on the Topps site since it's pre-release.[/QUOTE]