2024 Baseball Hall of Fame Tracker

[refz]

Beltre is a sure lock. With the exception of Mauer these other guys I don’t think will get in. Jones & Sheffield both imo should not be considered that high in the voting. Wasn’t Sheffield linked to ped’s at one time ? Bartolo Colon may be a surprise as to how high his votes get.

[Sinker Slider]

The percentage drop varies by player (and some go up). If you look at the full tracker there’s a row comparing 2023 actual vs pre vote percentages. Helton dropped 6.4% last year from the pre-released tracker to the actual votes, and has gained a net of 0 votes in the pre-released ballots so far this year, so it looks like he will be very close to 75% and hard to predict.

Wagner has a lower total now, but only dropped about 4% last year and has gained 7 votes so far in the pre-released, so he will also be very close.

[BioCRN]

It's time for Billy Wagner. If the 1-inning guy not throwing 1000 innings in a career is going to hold as "not enough" then it could be a very long time before a closer gets into the hall.

Francisco Rodriguez could use a bit more love, too. It will be interesting to see if he gains steam in 2025+ if Wagner gets in.

[Shankweather]

Originally Posted by BioCRN

It's time for Billy Wagner. If the 1-inning guy not throwing 1000 innings in a career is going to hold as "not enough" then it could be a very long time before a closer gets into the hall.

Francisco Rodriguez could use a bit more love, too. It will be interesting to see if he gains steam in 2025+ if Wagner gets in.

1000 career innings seems like a reasonable threshold. I know the way closers are currently used makes it hard to accumulate innings, but that doesn't change the fact that you can't create HOF-level value on the field in 900 innings. I just can't put Wagner's 900 ahead of (for example) Mark Buehrle's 3200. No way Wagner contributed more to winning games than Buehrle.

[jayshum]

The full tracker has tabs for previous years so you can see the difference in percentages of votes players received on ballots released before and after the results were announced. In general, the percent of votes received by someone is lower on the ballots released after the results are announced or never released at all than the percent received on ballots released before the results are announced. However, there are some players that do better so you can't always say for certain what will happen.

Beltre appears to be a lock at this point since he has only been left off of 2 ballots out of 166 reported as of 8:00 AM on January 17.

Mauer appears to have a decent chance since he's at 82.5%, but since it's his first year, there's no way to know how he will do on unreleased ballots compared to the already released ballots.

Helton is also at 82.5%. Last year, he was at 78.6% before the results were released and ended at 72.2% of the total so he went down. Since he's currently a little higher than last year, he may just get in or just miss. However, he needed to gain 11 votes from last year, and so far, he's picked up 4 votes from returning voters and also lost 4 votes from returning voters so no net gain. Of course, the voting pool changes every year, and he has received 10 of 12 votes from new voters and voters that did not vote last year. All of the above indicates it will again be very close for Helton this year.

Wagner is at 79.5% currently. Last year, he was at 72.3% before results were announced and ended at 68.1% so he also went down. He needed to pick up 27 votes and so far only has a net increase of 7 from returning voters compared to last year and also has received 10 of 12 votes from new voters and voters that did not vote last year. If the same pattern is seen this year, it looks like Wagner will likely fall a little short.

Sheffield is at 74.7% currently. He dropped from 62.6% to end at 55.0% last year, but since this is his last year on the ballot, his results could be different. He needed 78 more votes and so far only has a net increase of 11, and he's received 8 out of 12 votes from new voters and voters that did not vote last year which is only 66.7%. I think it's likely Sheffield does not get in this year.

Andruw Jones is at 71.7% currently and dropped from 66.5% to 58.1% last year so it also looks unlikely he gets in this year.

Beltran is at 66.3% and also dropped last year so it looks unlikely for his as well. However, some voters may have decided not to vote for him the first year because of the Astros cheating scandal he was part of but be more willing to vote for him now. Whether it's enough to get him in remains to be seen, but so far, it looks doubtful.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by refz

Beltre is a sure lock. With the exception of Mauer these other guys I don’t think will get in. Jones & Sheffield both imo should not be considered that high in the voting. Wasn’t Sheffield linked to ped’s at one time ? Bartolo Colon may be a surprise as to how high his votes get.

Sheffield's link to PEDs and BALCO is through working out with Bonds, and he has maintained he did not know he was being given a steroid to use and stopped using it when he found out. The link below is to an article by Jay Jaffe and has more information about it:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and...ary-sheffield/

As for Colon, how high do you think he will end up? Currently, he has received 1 vote out of 166 made public so it looks unlikely he will get the 5% he needs to stay on the ballot another year.

[FrankWakefield]

Sorry, guys. There's too much contrariness and 20th century in me for me, otherwise I could have refrained from posting...

I saw Sheffield play, I don't think he's HOF caliber, ditto for Andruw Jones (although he could run down stuff in the outfield).

Helton should be in. And A-Rod should, in my opinion. And I can accept Billy Wagner getting in. And just maybe, Beltran.

Seems to me that virtually all of the HOFers who were in when I was a kid, were guys deserving to me in. But I feel like players get voted in now because there is a perception that someone should be going in most all the time.

Larry Yount... he may be the answer. I know I'm in the minority about so many modern players getting in, so maybe the extreme at the opposite end of the my thinking on the HOF spectrum would work. Just vote EVERYONE in who makes it to the majors, and gets into a game. Larry gets in (I'm not hating on him, he could pitch fairly well), and everyone else who gets in a ML game.

Ya'll can get back to talking 21st century HOF stuff. Some of those guys you're discussing will get in. But should they?

[packs]

Andruw Jones is getting talked about but he was not very good. He was a great fielding centerfielder for a decade but more than anything else he is a 254 career hitter who didn't hit 500 home runs. His 254 average would put him one point above Ray Schalk as the lowest average among HOFers .

[butchie_t]

All I know is Helton is finally gonna get his due. After watching him in Colorado Springs with the brief stint in AAA and then following his 17 years in MLB with the Rockies. This fan is happy to see him finally get in to the HOF.

After that, cool for everyone else that makes it.

I also saw Billy Wagner during his time with Tucson. That dude could bring it! He was not a reliever at that point in his career, he was in the rotation. The way the ball popped in the catchers glove when he threw. Awesome to hear.

B.T.

[molenick]

Andruw Jones being in or not rests entirely on how much you value defense in center field (and how much you believe in defensive metrics). Among center fielders, he is first in dWAR and 51st in oWAR (between Mike Cameron and Clyde Milan). Together that makes him the eleventh best center fielder according to Baseball Reference, ahead of most of the center fielders in the Hall. For me, he is one of those people who I am not clamoring to be in, but if he gets in, it would not cheapen the Hall.

[packs]

He won 10 straight gold gloves but didn't win another after his 30th birthday.

I understand the metrics and where they place him, but I don't believe you can be the 11th best centerfielder of all time when your career was more or less over at 30 and you failed to win an MVP.

For comparisons sake, Johan Santana's career was also more or less over at 30 but he won a Triple Crown and two Cy Youngs. Still won't be enough to get him in.

[z28jd]

I'd love to see Helton just miss again. He's lost more votes than he has gained from returning voters so far, down -1, which makes it hard to pick up any ground. He's a fringe candidate for me based on his career, but I don't like rewarding a habitual drunk driver. I'd be fine making him wait the ten years if he only had one DUI, but once he got the second and left the scene of an accident too, I had zero respect for him.

People are out here not voting for Vizquel because of a clubhouse incident that affected one person, or Andruw Jones because of his spousal abuse, which I'm completely fine with in both cases. I wouldn't vote for either of them for those reasons. If they were slam dunk cases for the HOF, then I'd withhold a vote for 2-3 years, or one year like people did with Roberto Alomar. Yet people are fine with Helton getting caught twice on the road drunk. Who knows how many times he just risked lives of everyone else around him those days. It's probably in the hundreds judging by the time gap alone.

Please don't defend Helton's actions either, because I won't ever see his side or your side of it. He made nine figures in salary during his career, he could have had a personal driver 24/7. That makes it even worse, but it's not even something specific to him. I have literally one relative out of a huge family with one DUI and the best thing I can say about what they did is that they didn't hurt anyone else with their own accident. Don't drive and drive ever or stand up for someone who does.