Let's see how far THIS one has fallen! 1958 Topps Jim Brown! Ends tonight!

[Rhotchkiss]

Several thoughts here.

First, I think that $108k sale was a fluke/aberration. A very comparable SGC 8.5 sold in Goldin in October of 2021 for $47,970. The current REA card is at $43,200 w/ BP and we still have extended bidding tonight. My gut is this is not a "market" thing, but rather someone just totally overpaid in 2021 and they will take a bath here.

Meanwhile (second), PSA 8.5's sold for $360k and $288k in 2022 -- shattering the paltry $108k realized on the SGC 8.5 in REA in 2021. I take these PSA 2022 comps to mean (i) the card was still going up in 2022 vs 2021, and thus, the SGC 8.5 Goldin sale in late 2021 should have beat or been close to the REA sale, if the REA sale was not a fluke, and (ii) PSA prices for a commodity card like this destroy SGC prices (PSA 8's have sold between mid $20k's and $45k since mid 2021).

Third, if we throw out the $108k sale as a fluke, and we look at the Goldin sale and the $19.6k sale by PWCC in 2020, this card has done very well over the last 3 years -- its more than doubled in value, with time to go.

This is a "commodity" card, which to me means its highly and widely desirable, fairly common, and generally liquid. I do believe that commodity cards are down off their highs of a year ago (or whenever they peaked). Some commodity cards more than other (see MJ rookies). Those who bought at the heights are sitting on loses for sure, some large and some less so. But anyone who bought these cards before 2021 are sitting on large gains. I expect most of those who bought the good stuff at the height of things will do just fine if they can hold the cards for a while. As an aside, to me, commodity cards can be from 1910 --a T206 red cobb and 33 Goudey Ruth are 1000% commodity cards that are off their highs at the peak. So I am, not just speaking in regards to "modern stuff".

Last thought -- I think the Koufax rookie is different because it sits in a PSA 9 flip, making it less of a commodity and more of a major item. But we all expect those to be down compared to last sales. However, lets talk about the 1925 Gehrig PSA 4.5 (MAJOR card) that sold in Lelands last night for just under $400k. An apparently great price until you compare it to the PSA 5 that sold in Memory Lane for over $1mm a year ago. Is this the signs of a weakened market, is Memory Lane a much better AH for that card than Lelands, is .5 grade in an older flip really worth 2.5x?