T206 Set...Minus the Big Four, and other Subsets...Will values keep climbing?

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by FrankWakefield

520 cards

that would be a card a week for ten years...

Keep in mind that if, in a single purchase, you buy multiple cards from the same seller, then you'll save a few dollars on shipping, compared to 520 single card purchases...

Obviously, on a week when you buy a common card that's ok... that would be a typical acquisition, but you need to have set some dollars aside, because many of the cards you'll be getting will case more than that ok common card.

So to get this done in 10 years, it'd take about $175 a week to get there.

15 years will be about $120 a week. (I've added a few dollars extra because the cards are likely to have increased in price more over a 15 year span as compared to 10 years.

And allocating $100 a week will get you close to a finish line in 17 to 18 years. And it'll take patience.

No one ever said that slaying a monster was easy.


If you decide that one Cobb card is enough instead of 'needing' all 4, then you shorten the journey by a couple of years. Or deciding you don't have to have Demmitt and O'Hara will save you time and money.

However long it does take; it'll take even longer if you start the journey three years from now, instead of starting by the end of this month. And knowing this from experience... starting, then stopping and selling, then restarting, is a really long way of doing it.

Well said Frank.

[MR RAREBACK]

If only auction houses did 15 year loans

[MVSNYC]

"Will values keep going up? Over the short term, no clue. Over the long term, I believe yes- I have seen values go up steadily over almost 40 years of collecting, they aren’t making any more, and t206 is the most famous and collectible set out there - it’s the monster!"

I agree with Ryan. No one has a crystal ball, but like Ryan, I have been collecting T206 for almost 4 decades, and I've only ever seen them go up in value.

The wise Scott Levy once told me..."Try to collect the best players you can, from the best sets you can, in the best condition you can." I think in the case of T206 we can add to that..."with the rarest backs you can."

[Exhibitman]

Don't forget inflation. The real question is whether prices will rise faster than the rate of inflation over the long haul. Cumulative inflation over the last 25 years has been nearly 90%; a card had to just about double in price just to maintain its value. If a card was $20 in 1997 I would expect it to cost at least $40 today.

[MVSNYC]

Adam, agreed, good conversation.

Some rough data, using rare backs as examples...

In 1997 a lower grade Drum was probably $500 (or less)...today you can't buy one for less than $5,000, and depending on player and condition they can easily sky-rocket from there. Uzit- $300-400 in 1997...today $4,000+. Common Hindus, maybe $100-150 in 1997. I was outbid on one the other night for $1,500.

I'd estimate that most rare backs are around 10x today versus where they were 25 years ago.

[Cory]

I had it estimated between 50k and 100k, and I'm over 90% of the way card wise but maybe 60-70%% cost wise. I think 100k is more realistic. The top 20 cards will likely be half the cost depending on condition and flaws you can live with. 4 Cobbs, 3 Youngs, 3 Mattys, 2 Wajos, 3 Naps, Speaker, Lundgren Chi, Demmit and O'Hara and Elberfeld Wash.

If you don't enjoy the hunt I think buying a set already completed or near completed is likely the most economical way. They seem to trade at a discount rather than premium.

[Vintage Vern]

Honest question, how many will continue to collect vintage especially with the prices now? I don't know a ton of people collecting especially younger folks, but I know very few that collect pre war, and most that do collect now, have to have a ton of extra cash to just waste. Some day the demand won't be nearly as strong as it is now. I'd imagine most of the high dollar cards/sets are held by people that got them many moons ago at a much more manageable price. Just like collector cars its more about generational interest. Not many 20 or 30 year olds want street rods or muscle cars, and some that do probably can't afford them. The people that have them want more than most can afford so the demand vs value isn't there. They would rather spend 30 grand on a tuner then 60 or 125 grand on something from the 30's - 70's. At some point it will be a very small group that values the cards many think will never lose value. Most of those will be the rich. No one else can really play, so once they (the wealthy) don't care I don't see much future. How many things in life did you think or feel would be forever that are all but forgotten? I don't see cards any different.