Auctions I lost - 10 years later

[Rhotchkiss]

Sam, good to see you post, it’s been a while.

I take the higher multiples on HOFers to means what it shows - HOFers are more desirable than commons. I expect the multiple will continue, since only set builders want commons but HOFers appeal to everyone

[Fred]

When I think of all the auctions lots I was underbidder on or near the top (but lost) from over 10 years ago, I kind of laugh and figure it would have put me closer to retirement if I did pull the trigger, but then I look at the cards/memorabilia I did come away with and don't feel so bad.

If you've been in this hobby for a few decades, you've probably scored so much good stuff at comparably low prices when considering the recent valuations. I feel sorry for people that are just getting into vintage card collecting now because the dollars today just don't go near as far as they did a decade or more ago.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Fred

When I think of all the auctions lots I was underbidder on or near the top (but lost) from over 10 years ago, I kind of laugh and figure it would have put me closer to retirement if I did pull the trigger, but then I look at the cards/memorabilia I did come away with and don't feel so bad.

If you've been in this hobby for a few decades, you've probably scored so much good stuff at comparably low prices when considering the recent valuations. I feel sorry for people that are just getting into vintage card collecting now because the dollars today just don't go near as far as they did a decade or more ago.

add 20 years, rinse, repeat.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

add 20 years, rinse, repeat.

You never know. I remember when my wife and I bought our first home. Prices were running away with crazy bidding auctions in the town we wanted to live in. Like 27 people bid for the house and we bid $125,000 over the asking price and got it. Of course I was convinced I had made a life altering error in judgment. The day we were moving in a neighbor stood in front of his house clapping like a jackass and thanking us for paying such an extravagent amount for our house and raising his home value. Sort of dick move but I played along.

Fast forward 20 years later, the house is easily worth 2.5x what we paid for it. Maybe more.

Moral of the story is you never know. Today's absurd price might not look so absurd someday. Or I guess it could.

I also remember not buying Amazon at $50 because I was sure I had muissed the boat.

[ParisianJohn]

Originally Posted by Fred

When I think of all the auctions lots I was underbidder on or near the top (but lost) from over 10 years ago, I kind of laugh and figure it would have put me closer to retirement if I did pull the trigger, but then I look at the cards/memorabilia I did come away with and don't feel so bad.

If you've been in this hobby for a few decades, you've probably scored so much good stuff at comparably low prices when considering the recent valuations. I feel sorry for people that are just getting into vintage card collecting now because the dollars today just don't go near as far as they did a decade or more ago.

I'd have to take a deeper dive but from some numbers in this thread and my own experiences it feels like the T206 portraits have really increased in value (even for commons) more than other cards in the set.

All HOFers have spiked but the elite among the HOFers (Cobb, Ruth, Johnson, Young) have done so at insane rates. This makes T206 HOFer portraits nuts and elite HOFer portraits really isane from that set.

And yes, a decade ago and longer I did come away with some good purchases but I never won a 1933 Goudey Ruth!!! Back then I would only buy a card if it had the eye appeal of at least a 3 to me (even if ungraded) but now I wish I'd lowered my standards - or raised my bids.

[StraightRaceCards]

Originally Posted by Fred

When I think of all the auctions lots I was underbidder on or near the top (but lost) from over 10 years ago, I kind of laugh and figure it would have put me closer to retirement if I did pull the trigger, but then I look at the cards/memorabilia I did come away with and don't feel so bad.

If you've been in this hobby for a few decades, you've probably scored so much good stuff at comparably low prices when considering the recent valuations. I feel sorry for people that are just getting into vintage card collecting now because the dollars today just don't go near as far as they did a decade or more ago.

Darn, that is me. Too bad my childhood 90’s junk wax didn’t pay off!

It has been hard getting into the hobby in 2021, with prices skyrocketing.

I wished I started before I had a wife, kids, and now we are house hunting. Not a good time for me, but one of the upsides is savoring each card I get a lot more now. My banged up t206 Matty portrait means a whole lot more to me now than if I had bought it way earlier.

Other bright side (at least I tell myself), is that ignorance is bliss and all I know are current market prices!

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Sam, good to see you post, it’s been a while.

I take the higher multiples on HOFers to means what it shows - HOFers are more desirable than commons. I expect the multiple will continue, since only set builders want commons but HOFers appeal to everyone

Yeah Ryan, with all due respect, that's not quite right. I doubt very much the increase in relative multiples is across all HOFers. It is only a small subset of the Tier 1 HOF players. So it is not the OG HOF collectors that is driving this. It's not even an influx of new HOF collectors. It is more likely that new money is coming into the market and it is mostly buying at the top.

[oldjudge]

$1000 put into the stock market in 2013 is worth $3000 today so aside from the Ruth the cards have performed just like equities.

[Rhotchkiss]

I don’t consider M Brown a Tier 1 HOFer, and your chart indicates his cards are up 3.5x - 4x since 2013. That is an awesome return. Looking on VCP at some other t206s of players I consider in the same general tier as M Brown (like tier 3), I get the following - trying to use similar month 2022 and 2013 and using PSA 5 unless there is no 2022 comp:

T206 Joss Portrait PSA 5: 6/13 @ $412 vs 12/22 @ $1,476 - 3.58x multiple
T206 Keeler Port PSA 5: 9/13 @ $592 vs 9/22 @ $2,520 - 4.25x multiple
T206 Evers Portrait PSA 4: 2/13 @ $385 vs 11/22 @ $2,520 - 6.5x multiple
T206 Walsh Portrait PSA 5: 10/13 @ $495 vs 10/23 @ $3,330 - 6.7x multiple
T206 Waddell Port PSA 5: 3/13 @ $416 vs 5/22 @ $1,830 - 4.4x multiple

This is decent evidence that less than tier 1 HOFers have seen great multiples; not Cobb or Ruthian results, but “out of the ballpark” returns nonetheless. Everyone wants HOFers. Only set builders and player collectors want commons. They are common. HOFers are extraordinary. The latter attracts everyone.

Regardless, I fully agree with your larger point - you would be in great shape today had you won all those cards in 2013!!

[GasHouseGang]

I saw this thread and wondered if I had some emails from around the same time frame. I found one from February of 2012 that I received from another Net54 member where he was offering the following:

'34 Goudey Gehrig #37 PSA 6 = $3400
'33 Goudey Ruth #181 SGC Auth = $750
N172 Old Judge Cap Anson SGC 50 (4) = $3900
N28 Allen & Ginter Cap Anson PSA Auth = $1500
M116 Sporting Life Ty Cobb PSA 4 = $1690
T205 Walter Johnson PSA Auth = $390
T205 Cobb PSA 4.5 = $2300
T3 Turkey Red Eddie Collins PSA 3 = $525
Ty Cobb Signed Check GAI = $1750
'33 Goudey Bengough #1 = $210
'54 Bowman Williams PSA 5 = $1100
'54 Topps Williams PSA 5.5 = $355
'40 Play Ball Dimaggio PSA 3 = $585
'86 Fleer Jordan SGC 92 = $875
T202 Mcbride / Milan PSA 6 = $240

I only bought one card off the list...unfortunately.

[ValKehl]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I take the higher multiples on HOFers to means what it shows - HOFers are more desirable than commons. I expect the multiple will continue, since only set builders want commons but HOFers appeal to everyone

Ryan, it is not only set builders who want commons. There are many collectors who collect certain teams. I collect cards of all the players, HOFers and commons, who were on the 1924 Washington Senators WS Championship team.