For 3500, which Jackie would be your one/only?

[BobC]

Originally Posted by itjclarke

I followed the below thread in real time, and I got the sense that many others here did as well. As has been mentioned, Shaun’s Bond Bread research has been cited many times. I remember even seeing direct links to this thread in AH item descriptions. Big thanks to Shaun and all others who have done this type of legwork and shared their findings freely.

https://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=171169

Thanks for posting the thread Ian. I never saw or remember seeing it back then in 2013. But I have read through the entire thread now, and any links that were still viable. This thread doesn't say one damn thing different than I've been saying and mentioning all along, and in fact, goes to prove the point that this most certainly was a limited distribution set, at least initially in 1947. I would also argue that it technically proves this most definitely was a regional type of distribution as well.

Without doing any of this detailed research, in earlier posts I had already opined that Bond Bread may likely have been limited to distribution, at least initially, to just predominantly black communities. And things I had read, along with what was put forth in this old thread now, seem to concur and confirm the exact same thinking and conclusions.

So let's do some math, shall we. In doing some online lookup, I found where the U.S. population was estimated to be about 144.13 million as of July 1, 1947. Census numbers for 1940 and 1950 are appropriately lower and higher, respectively, so that figure seems to be in the ballpark, and I'll leave it at that. I couldn't quickly find a 1947 population estimate for just black Americans, but found 1940 and 1950 numbers of 12,865,518 and 15,042,286. respectively. So if I figure the difference in the black U.S. population between those two points as 2,176,768 (15,042,286 - 12,865,518),and assume ratable population growth throughout the decade, that means the black population should have grown by about 65% (6.5 yrs. (from 1/1/40-7/1/47) / 10 yrs. (from 1/1/40-1/1/50) through July 1, 1947, or up to 14,280,417 as of 7/1/47 ((2,176,768 X 65%) + 12,865,518). I'll round that black population estimate up to a more even 14.3 million then, and divide by the total US population figure of 144.13 million to arrive at an estimated black U.S. population of approximately 9.92% (14.3M / 144.13M), as of 7/1/47. Now in looking at regional maps from around today, more than half the black U.S. population still lives in the South, around 56%. Back around 1960 that percentage was more around 60%, and read that is was even greater in earlier years going back to 1947, but couldn't find specific maps and figures for back then, so I'll just use the probably too low, 60% figure Now since the definition of the South does include states such as West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Kentucky, and Washington DC, I'm going to make an assumption and knock that estimated Black Southern population estimate all the way back to just 50% as of 7/1/47, to account for black communities in places like Baltimore, that did apparently have these Bond Bread promotions in 1947 for Jackie cards. I feel that is more than fair.

So with that all said, and the total black population of the U.S. at only about 9.92% in 1947, of which 50% or so was in the South and likely not part of the initial Bond Bread distribution promotion (and I'm not even factoring in the blacks in the Western U.S. that likely weren't made part of these Bond bread promotions either initially in 1947), that means these initial '47 Bond Bread distributions were directed at approximately only around 4.96% (9.92% X 50%) of the total U.S. population at that time (and that is likely being generous that it was even that high). So, someone explain to me how in the F%$K limiting your distribution to a targeted audience of less than 5% of the total U.S. population is an any way, shape or form, somehow not a limited distribution!!!!!

And as for the regional issue argument. In looking up the population of New York City proper in 1940 and 1950, I found some estimates that it was around 7.45 million and 7.89 million, respectively. So again extrapolating based on ratable growth over 65% of the decade up to 7/1/47, that would put the NY City population at approximately 7.736 million as of July 1/1947 (((7.89M - 7.45M) X 65%) + 7.45M). Now using my earlier population figures, that means the NY City population alone would be about 5.367% (7.736M / 144.13M) of the total U.S. population as of 7/1/47. And in the immortal words of Arte Johnson from the old Laugh-In show, "Veeeerrryyyyyy Innteeerrrrressstinggggg!!!"

In that superb(?) research thread back in 2013 it was claimed that the original thinking was that the initial Bond Bread release may have been limited to just Brooklyn, and was therefore only a regional issue. But after it was later found out and determined to have actually gone to various black communities in other cities as well, it was immediately deemed as not possibly being a regional issue at all. Now here's the really interesting part. Had Bond Bread actually just left the initial '47 distribution of that Jackie card as a regional issue in just the New York City area, and not just limited it to black people and black communities around the city, it would have actually been available to a bigger percentage of the U.S. population (5.367% vs. 4.96%) than when they supposedly made the issue non-regional and non-limited. How the F$%K does that happen?!?!?!

And who the hell ever said the word "regional' only defined a contiguous area? The coastal region of the U.S. comprises all coastal areas of the U.S., not exclusively just the East coast, the West coast, the Gulf coast, etc. Now many people may decide to refer to a specific sub-region, such as the Gulf Coast, for more specific directions or descriptions, but that doesn't mean the U.S. coastal region is any less ALL the coastal areas of the U.S. Just exactly like all the black communities scattered around various U.S. cities combine to form a black urban U.S. region. I could probably find elementary and/or junior high school kids who would easily understand the math and logic, and be able to do it themselves, and easily agree with this proper thinking and logic in a heartbeat!!!!! Yet this crap has been out there for what, ten years now, and NO ONE has ever before pointed out the idiocy that these numbers clearly point to?!?!?!? It only took me about 10-15 minutes to really figure this out myself, after finally having the chance to read through that research thread. I was reserving doing any more work till I saw this research that people kept talking about and referring to, and was expecting some profound and really interesting data and evidence. Boy, did I get a load of crap.

I'm going to say this very clearly. These Bond Bread Robinson cards issued initially in 1947 most clearly and logically appear to have been limited in their initial distribution after all, and were initially only regionally distributed as well, based on information and facts that ALL YOU OTHERS in this and that earlier thread brought forth and presented. I merely took your info and then applied and added the math/number logic. Otherwise, your facts and information boys, not mine.

And feel free to go back and redo any of my calculations and numbers. As I said, I just did some quick online searches, and didn't always come up with exact, specific population numbers, but feel the ones I did use were at least pretty darn close. And I also made sure that whenever I was estimating something, I purposely tried to round the numbers to work against me. So I have what I think is a lot of cushion in the final figures I did come up with. Regardless, even if someone does go back and redo my calculations, the percentages are already so far skewed towards this issue being a limited
distribution, unless someone will actually have the gall to try and argue that only giving one or two people out of every ten a chance for something doesn't make that a limited distribution. But after seeing a lot of the crap that many on this site will try to argue is correct, lord only knows!

Maybe you should all start focusing more on the round-cornered, Bond Bread Robinson cards supposedly issued with the loaves of bread instead!