CAN WE SOLVE THIS HOBBY (SPORTS CARD) CRISIS? Video and Discussion

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

Because everyone will get something. Not a lottery.

This is very incorrect, as is what else was being stated on this.

In actuality, you are more likely to receive nothing in a high end break. The breaks are seldom cases, and even those are often nothing. A box of high end can contain less than 10 cards, those breaks are most often sold by player…the entire set list. A set can contain 100 players or more, though often repeated. There is no chance of everyone receiving a pull.

I have honestly participated in maybe 4-5 of these on a lark for specific rookies and can state I am 0-5 on receiving anything.

Guaranteed breaks cost quite a bit and are done by card position in the pack per lottery. These are done for vintage pack breaks also. Those can be hundreds for a card position, while player breaks tend to be less than 20 bucks.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by exhibitman

from what i've been reading, there is a whiff of stinky from the breaking world. Someone [who fails to understand probability thoery] did a [poor job of] mathematical analysis of the pulls by one breaking influencer and basically concluded that they either had the greatest luck in history or they were being fed loaded boxes by panini in order to hype the brand. True? I have no idea. But no one has to hype babe ruth.

fyp...

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

lolz

There is a backstory with this particular card though that I think likely had an effect on its drop in value. I recall reading that someone from PSA made it known that they rejected the card for trimming. Also, I think the BGS black label scandal likely played a role as well. Basically, big pocket investors lost confidence in this particular copy of this card.

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

IMO the whole BGS Black Label thing is rather foolish to begin with, and, if an expose on Blowout is to be believed, subject to favoritism if not outright corruption. Textbook example of buying the flip. Nothing wrong with that until you lose a million on it.

I'm generally dismissive of a lot of the accusations that get thrown around in this hobby, but I'm as certain as I could possibly be that the BGS Black Label scandal is an actual conspiracy, not just a theory. The percentage of black label cards going to one guy is simply far too improbable. Add in the fact that he just so happens to be a former employee... ya, LOL. He absolutely received favorable grades. This is not someone with an "eagle eye". You could crack out and resubmit 100 BGS 10 black labels and you'd probably only get 5 back, if you're lucky. It's all a complete joke. No card is truly perfect. I could find a flaw on every single card I've ever looked at.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by JustinD

This is very incorrect, as is what else was being stated on this.

In actuality, you are more likely to receive nothing in a high end break. The breaks are seldom cases, and even those are often nothing. A box of high end can contain less than 10 cards, those breaks are most often sold by player…the entire set list. A set can contain 100 players or more, though often repeated. There is no chance of everyone receiving a pull.

I have honestly participated in maybe 4-5 of these on a lark for specific rookies and can state I am 0-5 on receiving anything.

Guaranteed breaks cost quite a bit and are done by card position in the pack per lottery. These are done for vintage pack breaks also. Those can be hundreds for a card position, while player breaks tend to be less than 20 bucks.

As I've understood it, from and on a purely technical standpoint, all "breaks" can probably be considered as a form of gambling. Gambling laws are generally state laws, and thus vary from state to state, and can further vary by the different types of "breaks" there are and the rules they follow. But generally speaking, for an activity to be considered gambling it must be found to involve three very distinct elements.

1. A prize (money or something of value a person can get from participating).

2. An element of chance in determining the winner of the prize(s).

3. Consideration (some type of payment or activity performed to participate).

Pretty much every "break" contains all three elements if you consider some rookie, game used, autographed, or otherwise short-printed cards as potentially being more valuable cards (prizes) that are randomly inserted (chance) into packs/boxes of cards that you then pay to get (consideration) some of as part of a "break". But here's the funny part, you don't have to take part in a "break" to meet those three gambling elements. Just going to a store or dealer to buy a pack or box of cards to open yourself seems to meet and fulfil all three gambling elements as well, doesn't it? So why hasn't Topps, Panini, or any other card company been brought up anywhere on illegal gambling charges yet? Think about that real hard. This is why it is often assumed that as long as everybody gets something in "break", the element of chance is removed because the value of the cards being sold are all technically the same, based on what the manufacturer sells each pack/box of cards for. And this is likely why many Breakers, to my understanding, make sure all "break" participants get some cards, even if the "break" they participated in originally resulted in them getting no cards.

Now over time, no Breaker has as of yet to my knowledge had any state come after any one of them for running an illegal gambling operation. So, is it any surprise that some Breakers would eventually just run "breaks" as you described, where participants can end up getting nothing and the Breakers just quit bothering to send those unlucky people anything, as has happened to you on multiple occasions? In this case, I think such "breaks" where participants can end up with nothing really are true gambling activities, but for whatever reason(s), state and local prosecutors have not yet found it fit to go after and try prosecuting them. Maybe it has to do with there being bigger fish for prosecutors to be looking to go after and fry, so to speak, or the possible negative public perception of wasting time and money going after people just selling baseball cards.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by BobC

As I've understood it, from and on a purely technical standpoint, all "breaks" can probably be considered as a form of gambling. Gambling laws are generally state laws, and thus vary from state to state, and can further vary by the different types of "breaks" there are and the rules they follow. But generally speaking, for an activity to be considered gambling it must be found to involve three very distinct elements.

1. A prize (money or something of value a person can get from participating).

2. An element of chance in determining the winner of the prize(s).

3. Consideration (some type of payment or activity performed to participate).

Pretty much every "break" contains all three elements if you consider some rookie, game used, autographed, or otherwise short-printed cards as potentially being more valuable cards (prizes) that are randomly inserted (chance) into packs/boxes of cards that you then pay to get (consideration) some of as part of a "break". But here's the funny part, you don't have to take part in a "break" to meet those three gambling elements. Just going to a store or dealer to buy a pack or box of cards to open yourself seems to meet and fulfil all three gambling elements as well, doesn't it? So why hasn't Topps, Panini, or any other card company been brought up anywhere on illegal gambling charges yet? Think about that real hard. This is why it is often assumed that as long as everybody gets something in "break", the element of chance is removed because the value of the cards being sold are all technically the same, based on what the manufacturer sells each pack/box of cards for. And this is likely why many Breakers, to my understanding, make sure all "break" participants get some cards, even if the "break" they participated in originally resulted in them getting no cards.

Now over time, no Breaker has as of yet to my knowledge had any state come after any one of them for running an illegal gambling operation. So, is it any surprise that some Breakers would eventually just run "breaks" as you described, where participants can end up getting nothing and the Breakers just quit bothering to send those unlucky people anything, as has happened to you on multiple occasions? In this case, I think such "breaks" where participants can end up with nothing really are true gambling activities, but for whatever reason(s), state and local prosecutors have not yet found it fit to go after and try prosecuting them. Maybe it has to do with there being bigger fish for prosecutors to be looking to go after and fry, so to speak, or the possible negative public perception of wasting time and money going after people just selling baseball cards.

While I agree, it is certainly a form of gambling to buy into breaks, I think this would be a tough sell in a court of law. Because by the same logic, buying a pack of cards from your local card shop or from a Target or Walmart would also be considered gambling.

[JustinD]

Bob, I think your last statement is really the crux of it…bigger fish to fry than something like this.

To be honest the breakers have moved on and the breaks discussed are starting to go the way of the Dodo unless it is buying positions on vintage or high end breaks.

While the team and player breaks are still heavily auctioned on eBay, it’s shrinking. The new maneuver is simply selling packs and boxes at an up charge and opening them live on TikTok. The breakers make money coming and going on that racket.

They make money selling the packs and boxes at an inflated rate to watchers, who do this because they either cannot find the product locally or often just want to show off having 400 dollars of cards ripped for a few hundred or thousand watchers for bragging rights. The breakers then make money from TikTok for the viewer counts as well…a double dip. Often these breakers charge extra for shipping any commons or just ship the hits and the rest get put somewhere.

It’s a complete gambling gambit for hits and plays into the excitement. However, no one will ever do anything about it. The breakers for sports cards and Pokémon bring 10s of thousands of viewers per hour.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by JustinD

Bob, I think your last statement is really the crux of it…bigger fish to fry than something like this.

To be honest the breakers have moved on and the breaks discussed are starting to go the way of the Dodo unless it is buying positions on vintage or high end breaks.

While the team and player breaks are still heavily auctioned on eBay, it’s shrinking. The new maneuver is simply selling packs and boxes at an up charge and opening them live on TikTok. The breakers make money coming and going on that racket.

They make money selling the packs and boxes at an inflated rate to watchers, who do this because they either cannot find the product locally or often just want to show off having 400 dollars of cards ripped for a few hundred or thousand watchers for bragging rights. The breakers then make money from TikTok for the viewer counts as well…a double dip. Often these breakers charge extra for shipping any commons or just ship the hits and the rest get put somewhere.

It’s a complete gambling gambit for hits and plays into the excitement. However, no one will ever do anything about it. The breakers for sports cards and Pokémon bring 10s of thousands of viewers per hour.

You may be right Justin, I don't take part and follow breaks, and don't know about such latest Breaker trends. But what it sounds like you're describing is even less of a possibility of being a gambling operation because if the Breakers are just selling packs or boxes to someone, and then opening them for the owner online before sending the cards to them, that is really no different than you or I buying a pack/box and opening it ourselves. What you're describing is really just another form of retail sales.

And that's another part of why I don't think Breakers need fear any prosecutors will come looking for them. Aside from their being the much more important issues and cases (bigger fish) for prosecutors to worry about, if they ever did go after Breakers because of the perceived extra value in special cards randomly inserted in packs and boxes, then as I mentioned before, technically the card manufacturers and their wholesale distributors are guilty of the same gambling operation then. I can just see prosecutors trying to then explain how one group selling cards is involved in gambling, but other groups basically doing the same thing and selling the same cards are not. That sounds like nothing prosecutors would want to willingly get in the middle of.

[Exhibitman]

One of the more amusing wastes of time is watching a vintage set break. Usually, the sellers will put 4-5 cards in each packet. The good ones will put at least one non-common in the package, but it might be a really minimal non-common, like Elston Howard. The way those guys have to summon enthusiasm when they open a packet at the request of a bidder who just got Ray Monzant, Cuno Barragan, Wayne Terwilliger, and an o/c checklist---priceless. But I guess they can't just say "sorry, bud, I guess you just wasted fifty bucks on that one."

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

One of the more amusing wastes of time is watching a vintage set break. Usually, the sellers will put 4-5 cards in each packet. The good ones will put at least one non-common in the package, but it might be a really minimal non-common, like Elston Howard. The way those guys have to summon enthusiasm when they open a packet at the request of a bidder who just got Ray Monzant, Cuno Barragan, Wayne Terwilliger, and an o/c checklist---priceless. But I guess they can't just say "sorry, bud, I guess you just wasted fifty bucks on that one."

In that case, I'm surprised they waste the time to go through and open faux packs like that. Watching breaks and someone just opening pack after pack online, while trying to make it sound like every 5th or 6th card they pull out is to die for, is a joke. The feigned excitement wears off, for me at least, pretty darn quick. If it were me running a vintage "break", I'd sell all the spots equal to the number of cards in the set, and then for the online "break" show, simply show everybody's spots being run through a randomizing program to see who gets what cards from the set. You can spend a little time calling out and naming some of the participants who won the big star/$ cards in the break. Then just post the list showing who won the balance, and then quickly move on to the next break. Time is money, right?

I've helped out some friends who actually are one of the fairly well-known Breakers, and it can get boring real fast! But all the Breakers are basically selling the exact thing as new product releases come out over the course of the year. So they try to differentiate themselves very often with feigned excitement, hype, and whatever other tricks or gimmicks they can come up with to entertain their followers, and keep them coming back for more.