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Timing the market, in the sense of absolute peaks and highs, is a fools errand.
However, it is usually very easy to see when things are on the higher end, or the lower end. If everything has doubled recently, it's usually not the best buying time. When everything has been falling for awhile, it's usually a good buying time. When the government shifts signaled that there was going to be an economic boom in 2016, I bought quick and then held. When government shifts later signaled that they were going to kill the economy, I stopped buying. A few more months and it will be time to start looking at more buying as things have fallen significantly this year. Will I buy at the bottom? Almost certainly no, but I will be ensuring I am buying at a low point in the market and not a high one. It's pretty similar for cards. Just like when stocks 'go bad', some actually do well and make big gains if you picked the right ones, but the majority tend to follow the same basic rules. You can't time perfectly, but you can generally ID the better buying times. |
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__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 10-22-2022 at 11:58 AM. |
#3
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It takes about 30 seconds to determine if the market is generally high or generally low. We know in real time if things are generally speaking good or bad in the stock market. We know it's low right now. If you buy a diversity of blue chips and/or into properly managed index funds (which are not difficult to identify, less than 20 minutes of research) when it's low and hold, it is incredibly difficult to lose over the long run. It does not take me to partake in insider trading to do this. It takes a little patience and common sense, no more. It barely takes any of one's time even. |
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My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 10-22-2022 at 12:59 PM. |
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#6
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You only know ex post if they're low or high because there are too many variables and uncertainties to predict short term direction..
__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 10-22-2022 at 01:03 PM. |
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I think it's very simple to know when we are in a recession or a lower/generally bad market. When the S&P is down 20%, it's not a high. It is generally low, it may go lower next week, next month, or even next year (hence the fools errand of exact timing), but we are obviously not at a high. I cannot understand how anyone would think that we are. Things in the market are generally bad. I think basically everyone is aware of this right now. When the market was setting new index records constantly, that was a high and things were generally good in the market, as everyone was aware of. I stopped my buying, not because I am a financial genius but because of basic common sense and the knowledge that while the market goes up over time, it behooves to actually put cash in at the lows to maximize my eventual returns in 30 years. It's not a special skill to know that when the market is setting daily records, we're high and one should probably wait to buy the blue chips and indexes later. It's not a special skill to recognize the market has dropped a lot right now, and might be a good time to buy into indexes. Definitely a far better time. Last edited by G1911; 10-22-2022 at 01:11 PM. Reason: a typo |
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After the market bottomed in 2008 early 2009 at under 7k Dow, and it came all the way back to 14K or so, people with your philosophy would have been screaming sell because the market is so far up it has to come back down. A guy who was advising me begged me to sell and on top of that to buy VXX. Guess what, it kept going up and up and up from there without any really steep decline until the pandemic. You just can't know.
And I wish I had bought AMZN at every record high it hit from 50 to 3000. No you can't tell in real time.
__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 10-22-2022 at 01:16 PM. |
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#10
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We had a bull market, in the sense that it has gone up a lot from 2008-2021 and was very good overall when looking at the block of time. In 2031, we will probably say the same thing about the period after it. But within that period, there were dips and buying opportunities that were evident at the time. Obviously if I could see the future I'd do a lot better. Some times I have gone riskier than others. I bought in 2016, when there was a lot of doubt in the market though the year ended very well. I bought a lot in 2020, when Covid killed the market because I believed that the state would not actually commit suicide over the virus. This one was a very safe conservative bet. There are some periods of time where things are stably going up year to year, and this was one of them. 2021 was very different; with records being set constantly, recovering quickly and then skyrocketing to be almost double the low in a year. Thus, I held off buying (I am speaking of blue chips and index funds, I have a relatively small amount in non-blue chip specific stocks I think will outperform and are less about the economy as a whole). You can't always wait for a dip like the one we have right now (though most knew this particular one was coming and the incredible spike was not sustainable), but there are lots of periodic dips. When everything is breaking the record set last week, which broke the record set the week before, it's usually a bad time to buy. That said, with blue chips and index funds, I have no doubt Peter's method will produce a fat profit in the end too. I'm just up 20% right off the bat by knowing the Trump boom wouldn't last forever. In 6 months I might be down 10%, it ain't a science but I think it's pretty easy to separate boom times from the normal times from the lows where everything is at a steep discount and you can buy in with a much lower floor risk. *I am not a financial advisor or smart. EDIT: Selling timeframe varies for everyone. I am 31, I intend to 'sell off' for retirement in addition to my IRA's, 401K and social security. I don't do stocks to feed myself tomorrow or next year, and keep more cash on hand than most financial advisors would probably advise. One should sell when times are good, not during bad times like right now, as a general rule. If I live long enough to retire and it is in an economic downturn, I won't sell them until we're recovered (and surely won't hit the peak, but I'll be selling in a better good time rather than a clear bad time). I do sometimes sell a specific stock because I see a bad future for that stock and I want to divest and pocket what I've made off it (or lessen losses, depending how well one picked). I usually don't manage to time the peak exact, but I try to know the specific stocks I own well to sell off when the red flags hit. Last edited by G1911; 10-22-2022 at 03:19 PM. |
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Giving investment advice is so difficult, because it is unique to your situation. If you are 50 years old with two kids in college with hefty 529s to pay for it, live in a house that is paid off, have $200K in your checking account and $4 million in the market, then $15-25K in sportscards as an "investment" can be fun and arguably sensible. If you are 30 with two kids under 10, have $40K in the bank and $50K in your 401K/IRA and are saving $500/mo after expenses, then a $15-25K investment in sportscards can be a different story.
If you have $4 million in the market, are you in your lifetime going to even notice the extra $25K deposit you make today vs opening that box, digging through the packing peanuts, removing the bubble wrap, separating the cardboard to reveal a nice 52 Topps Jackie or a 33 Goudey Ruth (especially if this card becomes the crown jewel of your collection)? I think there is a psychological dividend to holding a grail card when you already have enough in traditional investments. And when you see your portfolio swing $25-50K a day, it sure is nice to go back and look at that grail card and see it is still the same. |
#12
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Here's a somewhat different, and definitely outside the box, take in response to your question. Do some research into sets/issues that PSA does not currently grade, or that they have only started grading very recently so there are only an extremely small number of PSA graded examples from that set/issue out there, so far.
No guarantee you can easily find such an eligible candidate set/issue, if at all. But if you did come across a potential prospect, maybe go after raw cards of the major stars/HOFers in that set/issue, in the nicest condition you can find/afford. Then hopefully you can have them graded by PSA in the future when they do start to grade them, or if they've already started grading them, get PSA to grade them right away while the overall PSA graded pop of such a set/issue is still extremely small. This strategy may be highly time and timing dependent as well, so obviously no guarantees of success. Certainly not a necessarily easy or predictable thing to do. But then, when has any type of such a riskier investment strategy ever really been that easy or predictable? |
#13
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Cheers, Brian Ty Cobb & T200 afictionado ANWCOLLECTIBLES on Instagram "If it's not at least a hundred years old, I probably won't want it." "Yesterday's price, is not today's price." The goods --> https://www.flickr.com/photos/196575621@N05/albums |
#14
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The 101 Jordan true RC would certainly qualify there.
__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. |
#15
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It would seem that with the influx of new collectors/money into the hobby these past few years, and the attraction and desire they appear to have for low pop/high grade PSA cards and items, getting in on the ground floor of a set/issue PSA suddenly starts grading items of may not be a bad idea. Though PSA and their Registry are not my personal cup of tea, it certainly seems to be for a very large number of people in the hobby. And the money that follows shows it. I've wondered in the past what would happen to the prices and values of items in other such sets/issues were PSA to suddenly start grading them. Like the S74 silks, BF2 Ferguson Bakery pennants, and B18 felt blankets, for example. There are Cobbs, Wagners, Joe Jacksons, and other HOFers and star players in such sets/issues that I've often thought they are way undervalued due to a (for lack of a better term) perceived stigma that may follow them because of a perception then of their not being deemed worthy of grading by PSA. Last edited by BobC; 10-22-2022 at 04:17 PM. |
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Great chart, but does the typical way one talks about annual return take into account some notion of compounding, in which case the annual returns would be somewhat lower?
__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. |
#17
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I’m sure you get tired of me pointing it out, but does the chart also assume zero selling costs?
__________________
Trying to wrap up my master mays set, with just a few left: 1968 American Oil left side 1971 Bazooka numbered complete panel |
#18
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There is no discount rate, interest rate, inflation rate, nor any other assumptions
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