1952 Rosen Mantle SGC 9.5 Final Price – Too high, too low, just right?

[parkplace33]

The Heritage 1952 Rosen Mantle SGC 9.5 sold Saturday for $12.6 million. Here is a new article about the sale: https://www.forbes.com/sites/carliep...h=6e4799033be2. I would like to get NET54’s thoughts on the price for this card.

I am in the camp of the price was too low. When I first saw the listing, I was sure it would go for close to $20 million. So while I get it was a record baseball card sale, I just thought with recent sky prices and the Mr. Mint storyline, it would have been more.

In other forums, I have seen the same argument made and here were the reasons why:

1. The grading company
2. The “toning” of the card
3. The auction house
4. Current inflation and stock market trends
5. Abundance of high end cards being recently auctioned off

I don’t think any of those really impacted the card (maybe number 5). It just a headscratcher to me on why it didn’t sell more.

What say you?

[mrreality68]

To me it was the right price.

Since it was presented at National Show, it had major press, it was in a big auction house that knows how to market and has big client base, and it had approx 30 days of bidding there was no way anyone missed it that wanted to bid.

It had a lot of movement the final day and obviously the person that had the bid prior to the winning bid was not willing to go higher indicates that is the price as of now.

Perhaps if the market goes up and/or some others decide to jump in if it comes up again soon it will go higher.

I am sure the buyer was thrilled and I am sure when he/she decides to move it down the line it will command more

[Seven]

I think it was the right price. It's not perfect, in fact I thought the card was slightly overgraded due to the provenance. Having Rosen's name attached to it, still carries some weight I believe. I'm sure whoever purchased it, is happy they got it at that price, though when you're buying a piece of cardboard for 12 Million I don't think you'd object to paying a little bit more for it.

[Exhibitman]

It's the highest price ever paid for a card, so I don't have a criticism of the price; how could I?

Is $75,000 for a PSA 1 a good price now???

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by exhibitman

it's the highest price ever paid for a card, so i don't have a criticism of the price; how could i?

Is $75,000 for a psa 1 a good price now???

hell to the no it's not !!!

[oldjudge]

To me it is absolute insanity. The 9.5 sold for 18x the 7.5 which looked almost as good.

[jchcollins]

Agreed, every time the "highest price ever paid for a sportscard" gets upped, it's hard to assert that whatever it is necessarily should have gone for more...

I think the goal of the person who consigned it was to just get over $10M. I would agree it was probably overgraded a tad due to the provenance, but that was still cool to see, especially the Rosen letter from 1991.

If Marshall Fogel ever parts with his PSA 10 Mantle, (he's said he will be buried with it...) I would expect that to go for considerably more.

It would be interesting to see if Ken K. ever sells the Gretzky Wagner, how that would do in comparison to this most recent '52 Mick. I think many collectors who have been around for more than 5 minutes still likely consider that the most valuable card in existence - whether it's trimmed or not.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

To me it is absolute insanity. The 9.5 sold for 18x the 7.5 which looked almost as good.

i havent looked at relative POP On the card but i would say there is a lot more involved than just saying a 7 sold for this so what did a 8 sell for that

If there are 200 examples of a 7 and only 1 example of a 8 ..i would imagine there to be a huuuuge difference in price..

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

i havent looked at relative POP On the card but i would say there is a lot more involved than just saying a 7 sold for this so what did a 8 sell for that

If there are 200 examples of a 7 and only 1 example of a 8 ..i would imagine there to be a huuuuge difference in price..

Right. Any vintage in high grade starts to move exponentially the higher the grade and lower the pop. It used to amaze me when grading first started how much more a run of the mill vintage Topps card in a PSA 8 would go for over a 7. With a card like that in super high grade, you aren't looking only at eye appeal anyway in terms of the difference between the numbers on the slabs. Buy the card not the grade yes, but the people bidding on that card at the end are in an entirely different league.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

Right. Any vintage in high grade starts to move exponentially the higher the grade and lower the pop. It used to amaze me when grading first started how much more a run of the mill vintage Topps card in a PSA 8 would go for over a 7. With a card like that in super high grade, you aren't looking only at eye appeal anyway in terms of the difference between the numbers on the slabs. Buy the card not the grade yes, but the people bidding on that card at the end are in an entirely different league.

right cause you sell the grade not the card......if you arent, please find me an EBAY listing for a card for sale that say ' card is overgraded and not due for a bump, but do for crossover drop'

[oldjudge]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

i havent looked at relative POP On the card but i would say there is a lot more involved than just saying a 7 sold for this so what did a 8 sell for that

If there are 200 examples of a 7 and only 1 example of a 8 ..i would imagine there to be a huuuuge difference in price..

Who cares what the pop is--look at the card. Wake up--the king has no clothing.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

It's the highest price ever paid for a card, so I don't have a criticism of the price; how could I?

Is $75,000 for a PSA 1 a good price now???

Not clear to me if this has a gravitational pull on other 311s or it's just its own thing, what do people think?

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by peter_spaeth

not clear to me if this has a gravitational pull on other 311s or it's just its own thing, what do people think?

fomo

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

fomo

I am neutral on the prices on the lower end going up much, very quickly, due to this sale.
They have elevated a lot, quickly and recently. But who knows? It wouldn't surprise me if I am wrong. fomo is real LOL
.

[Rare Stuff]

https://youtu.be/qBXSUVWY1Ug

Here is a close look video I took of the Rosen 52 Mantle at The National.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

fomo

Well, low and midgrade ones come up often enough in auctions, we'll know soon.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

To me it is absolute insanity. The 9.5 sold for 18x the 7.5 which looked almost as good.

totally agree...the 7.5 was the smarter buy!!!!!

TPGing is an opinion...somewhat arbitrary remember. An 8 today is a 7 tomorrow. a 10 tomorrow was a 9 yesterday.

[BeanTown]

It’s amazing the trust people put into TPG. I would be curious, as to who submitted the card for grading. Special people get special treatment like in all industries. I know most on this forum still look at the card, but there is a growing number of people who just care about the grade. Long live the registry!

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by BeanTown

It’s amazing the trust people put into TPG. I would be curious, as to who submitted the card for grading. Special people get special treatment like in all industries. I know most on this forum still look at the card, but there is a growing number of people who just care about the grade. Long live the registry!

Heritage, presumably. Does anyone at Heritage have any connection to SGC?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

totally agree...the 7.5 was the smarter buy!!!!!

TPGing is an opinion...somewhat arbitrary remember. An 8 today is a 7 tomorrow. a 10 tomorrow was a 9 yesterday.

Spoken like a collector. An investor would evaluate the flip as much as or more than the card.

[hcv123]

I think there are 2 factors to consider in the question.

A) Current market value. As has been previously stated the possibility that a potential buyer of the card did not see it is so miniscule that I think (in this case) it is fair to say all willing buyers were able to place bids and the market (those buyers) set the current fair market value. Regarding the list of comments on other threads:

1. The grading company - This is an interesting one. As PSA has no 9.5 grade it would be difficult to compare apples to apples. I do believe a PSA 10 would sell for more. In general for post war cards PSA cards at comparable grades command stronger prices. I do not think a PSA 9 would have gotten close to 12.6M.

2. The “toning” of the card - a non factor - The card is drop dead incredible!

3. The auction house - a non factor - while there are other houses that it might have done as well at, I do not believe given (as previously stated) the amount of press and visibility this particular card had that the result would have been higher in any other auction house.

4. Current inflation and stock market trends - I suspect that in most cases a person who can afford to invest 12.6 million in a baseball card, is both wealthy and diversified enough that both inflation and the stock market were not a factor.

5. Abundance of high end cards being recently auctioned off - Again a non factor - this is a card on a whole other level. Certainly the most Iconic post war card.


B) The other factor that I haven't seen mentioned yet is the relative value of baseball cards compared to other collectible categories. In that regard, I think the baseball card hobby is just getting warmed up. I see demand continuing to grow, especially so for the higher-end cards most of which are in ridiculously low supply relative to the demand. When I think about art or sculpture for example, 12.6 Million for one of the top 4 examples of one of the most iconic and high demand cards in the hobby just doesn't seem like that much money.

In conclusion - I think the buyers fairly set the current market on the card and I think the hobby has a lot further to grow! As an aside, pre auction I also thought the card had a really good chance of going north of 15M.

[53toppscollector]

It isn't the hot take, but I think honestly the price is always the "right" price, because price is driven by supply and demand. This auction was hyped up, the card was a very rare offering, and it smashed the previous record. This was the price the market demanded right now. With outlier cards like this, it is hard to know what the impact will be across the hobby, or even for a 1952 Mantle in a different grade. Will some casual collectors see the articles about this sale and decide they need to go and get a lower grade copy of the card now, thus bumping the prices up? Maybe, maybe not.

What will be interesting is to see what kinds of cards are offered up via the big auction houses over the next 6 months or so. Will this sale bring other high grade copies of rare cards to market to try and capitalize on this? Maybe, maybe not. I think Ken Kendrick has said he has no interest in selling his Wagner or Mantle, for example.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

It's the highest price ever paid for a card, so I don't have a criticism of the price; how could I?

Is $75,000 for a PSA 1 a good price now???

Judging by the 9 different PSA 1 52 Mantles on eBay priced lower than this and not selling, it is nowhere near $75K.

[Lorewalker]

I have no idea if the price is right but it was another great shot in the arm to that segment of the hobby and for SGC. I think it could cause more collectors to buy a 52 who did not already own one and it might bring newer more affluent individuals to jump into the hobby. So it could have an impact on demand, short term.

My hope is that all centered PSA 4.5s will increase in value. If not certain people's Sundays will be at risk.

[BeanTown]

Now, I’m not a Topps expert and I have never collected the 52 set. I know the Mantle is a “short print” but correct me if I’m wrong…. Didn’t they make 2 print runs or was it 3? How many Mantles are out there which are ungraded and graded.

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by BeanTown

It’s amazing the trust people put into TPG.

Yes it is. Especially given how both PSA and SGC are absolutely all over the place right now with virtually every other type of vintage card. Within the past 2 years I've had the same nice '65 Mantle grade both a 5, and then an 6.5 with SGC. I've also seen slabs where noob graders who were not taught how to compute centering ratios properly gave some cards 5's based on centering that really should have been closer to 7's. Grading has always been a crapshoot, but I feel like it's worse right now than it has been in some time.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by BeanTown

Now, I’m not a Topps expert and I have never collected the 52 set. I know the Mantle is a “short print” but correct me if I’m wrong…. Didn’t they make 2 print runs or was it 3? How many Mantles are out there which are ungraded and graded.

It is in the high series, the 1952 Topps high series is the shortest print run of any Topps series. Within that series it was printed twice on the sheet, along with Robinson and Thompson. So those 3 have double the population of other 1952 high numbers, but less than any other Topps cards.

[53toppscollector]

Originally Posted by BeanTown

Now, I’m not a Topps expert and I have never collected the 52 set. I know the Mantle is a “short print” but correct me if I’m wrong…. Didn’t they make 2 print runs or was it 3? How many Mantles are out there which are ungraded and graded.

SGC has graded 590 Mantles, but only 3 copies at a 9 or higher (2 are 9s, and this 9.5) and PSA has graded 1,496 Mantles, which includes 8 9s (2 with qualifiers) and 3 10s.

So the total population is 2,086 graded between those 2 (plus however many Beckett has graded, though I wonder how many are still in Beckett slabs that haven't been crossed over) with (3) 10s (1) 9.5, (8) 9s, and (2) 9 qualifiers

SGC has graded only (6) at a 8 or 8.5, and PSA (35) 8s, (5) 8.5s, and (8) 8 Qualifiers.

So, its not a rare card, but its rare in high grade. Most of the other cards in the set have been graded 400-500 times by PSA and less than 100 times by SGC.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

SGC has graded 590 Mantles, but only 3 copies at a 9 or higher (2 are 9s, and this 9.5) and PSA has graded 1,496 Mantles, which includes 8 9s (2 with qualifiers) and 3 10s.

So the total population is 2,086 graded between those 2 (plus however many Beckett has graded, though I wonder how many are still in Beckett slabs that haven't been crossed over) with (3) 10s (1) 9.5, (8) 9s, and (2) 9 qualifiers

SGC has graded only (6) at a 8 or 8.5, and PSA (35) 8s, (5) 8.5s, and (8) 8 Qualifiers.

So, its not a rare card, but its rare in high grade. Most of the other cards in the set have been graded 400-500 times by PSA and less than 100 times by SGC.

also its supply and demand of course..not just about POP when comparing 2 different players in same set of course.....there can be 800 x more mantles in the 1952 set and they would still be worth more than the common cards that have 800 less in POP

[chriskim]

Waiting on Rob Gough to announce his new addition of the Mantle 9.5. Since he started the whole thing of setting the "finish line" of this 9.5 at $10Mil and he better finish it with the card.

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

right cause you sell the grade not the card......if you arent, please find me an EBAY listing for a card for sale that say ' card is overgraded and not due for a bump, but do for crossover drop'

bump and crossover dribble but what about if it popped?

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Leon

fomo is real LOL

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by hcv123

I do not think a PSA 9 would have gotten close to 12.6M.

Even though the PSA 8 went for almost 3 Million a couple years ago?

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by G1911

Judging by the 9 different PSA 1 52 Mantles on eBay priced lower than this and not selling, it is nowhere near $75K.

Phew. I sold mine for about $2500 back in 2005.

[jingram058]

I think 12.6M for ANY baseball card, a piece of cardboard, with all that's going on in the world, makes me mad. That someone has that much disposable pocket change, to plunk down on a baseball card, no matter their "investment" or possible "flip" options or what the f%$# ever, makes me mad. I am not jealous. I find it ridiculous in the extreme and it makes me mad. And with that, I am done...

[Shoeless Moe]

Winner overpaid.

Next one up will go for less.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

Phew. I sold mine for about $2500 back in 2005.

I was going to offer you $2,600!

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by jingram058

I think 12.6M for ANY baseball card, a piece of cardboard, with all that's going on in the world, makes me mad. That someone has that much disposable pocket change, to plunk down on a baseball card, no matter their "investment" or possible "flip" options or what the f%$# ever, makes me mad. I am not jealous. I find it ridiculous in the extreme and it makes me mad. And with that, I am done...

Is there something they could have bought with that money (assuming a purchase for personal use only) that you would be less offended by?

[Ricky]

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

SGC has graded 590 Mantles, but only 3 copies at a 9 or higher (2 are 9s, and this 9.5) and PSA has graded 1,496 Mantles, which includes 8 9s (2 with qualifiers) and 3 10s.

So the total population is 2,086 graded between those 2 (plus however many Beckett has graded, though I wonder how many are still in Beckett slabs that haven't been crossed over) with (3) 10s (1) 9.5, (8) 9s, and (2) 9 qualifiers

SGC has graded only (6) at a 8 or 8.5, and PSA (35) 8s, (5) 8.5s, and (8) 8 Qualifiers.

So, its not a rare card, but its rare in high grade. Most of the other cards in the set have been graded 400-500 times by PSA and less than 100 times by SGC.

So maybe this has been discussed, but with all the hype about how this is the finest 52 Mantle, how does this 9.5 compare with the three PSA 10’s?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Ricky

So maybe this has been discussed, but with all the hype about how this is the finest 52 Mantle, how does this 9.5 compare with the three PSA 10’s?

This was discussed at great length in another recent thread.

[MattyC]

Anyone who thinks this card went low is nuts. 12.6 million dollars is an enormous amount of money.

The card was gorgeous, also.

As to that 7.5, it was tilted as shit for that kind of cash.

And as to PSA 1s, I paid 60k for a particular PSA 1 recently— and I'd do it again and again.

[GaryPassamonte]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Anyone who thinks this card went low is nuts. 12.6 million dollars is an enormous amount of money.

The card was gorgeous, also.

As to that 7.5, it was tilted as shit for that kind of cash.

And as to PSA 1s, I paid 60k for a particular PSA 1 recently— and I'd do it again and again.

I would say this SGC 4 fits your tilt description more accurately than the PSA 7.5. Your eyes a a lot better than mine.

[MattyC]

Gary, you are right: that 4 has major league tilt. The key words for me are "for that kind of cash," yet I'll admit that is all relative. When I train my eye on the comparative width of the bottom white borders on the 7.5, the card is an instant pass for that very serious sum of money. But again, I'll readily concede that to someone for whom that is chump change, maybe it is not a big deal. I'd still advise to patiently wait out less tilt.

There is also a much greater amount of what I call "cap blur" on the 7.5 as compared the 4, which is worth hanging a lantern on for any sticklers when it comes to aesthetics.

[GaryPassamonte]

I agree. For that kind of cash, the centering should be right on.

[jingram058]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Is there something they could have bought with that money (assuming a purchase for personal use only) that you would be less offended by?

I honestly don't know, Peter. I am guessing that if the buyer has 12.6M in pocket change, then he/she/they have an income/estate/portfolio that someone like myself cannot even comprehend. Perhaps they might do something philanthropic (as opposed to something personal) with their pocket change, but it (still, indeed) is a free country. They can do whatever with their money. I am not jealous or envious; I am living nicely with a nice collection of cards and memorabilia. I simply cannot rationalize a 12.6M baseball card purchase. I can't come to grips with the value of any of these baseball cards, much less Mickey Mantle.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by jingram058

I honestly don't know, Peter. I am guessing that if the buyer has 12.6M in pocket change, then he/she/they have an income/estate/portfolio that someone like myself cannot even comprehend. Perhaps they might do something philanthropic (as opposed to something personal) with their pocket change, but it (still, indeed) is a free country. They can do whatever with their money. I am not jealous or envious; I am living nicely with a nice collection of cards and memorabilia. I simply cannot rationalize a 12.6M baseball card purchase. I can't come to grips with the value of any of these baseball cards, much less Mickey Mantle.

I understand the reaction, was just curious if you would feel better about it if they bought a villa, or that much Apple stock, or a Picasso, or whatever. Or is the offense really just spending that kind of money on oneself rather than doing something more philanthropic with it.

[53toppscollector]

It is really difficult to zoom out from present day and think about what something might command long into the future.

In 1990, a copy of the Declaration of Independence sold for $1.5M. A year later, a copy sold for $2.4M. Those were original copies (I believe there are only 23 original copies printed at that time)

Last year, a copy that was printed in the early 1800s (one of 200 copies) sold for over $4m in an auction. In 1991, if you told the person who paid $2.4m (which was way above what the previous sale was) that a copy with less rarity, printed 40+ years later, would sell for $4.4m, they'd have probably laughed.

30 years from now, the 9.5 Mantle might sell for $40M. Maybe we wont even be using money 30 years from now, who knows.

25 years ago, I still connected to the internet with a CD that I got in the mail from a company called AOL. At the time it was revolutionary. Now its like a relic of a bygone era. 25 years from now the world is going to look a lot different, and I bet the Rosen Mantle would be valued at $25-30M. Or whatever that equates to in whatever the next version of Bitcoin is.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by GaryPassamonte

I agree. For that kind of cash, the centering should be right on.

Yet someone paid 12 million dollars for a tilted Mantle that was also off-centered on the back.

[GaryPassamonte]

Originally Posted by rats60

Yet someone paid 12 million dollars for a tilted Mantle that was also off-centered on the back.

All the more so. I can't figure it out.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by rats60

Yet someone paid 12 million dollars for a tilted Mantle that was also off-centered on the back.

Same one with the toning along the top?

Sheesh