T206 Back Scarcity, Pricing, and Other Tidbits

[53toppscollector]

Originally Posted by sreader3

Hi All,

The back multipliers at the below link are more current than those in my 2012 piece:

http://www.t206insider.com/store/c1/insider#checklists/

David Hall and I also collaborated on a couple of back scarcity articles which are published on the PSA website.

Scot

Thanks for this Scot, I must have missed it. I will update my chart accordingly and use those updated numbers in future updates.

Ryan, I agree with your comment about the SC 350/25s....some of them are just impossible. The real shame is that factory numbers were not tracked from the beginning by PSA (and not at all by SGC), so we don't know the true counts, but I think it is clear that the SC 350/30s far out number the 25s in most all cases.

[toppcat]

On a semi-related note, certain brands, often. the "lesser" ones (i.e. not Sweet Cap or Piedmont) have much better image quality. I've always thought that was interesting.

[sreader3]

Here’s a link to one of the back scarcity articles.

https://www.psacard.com/articles/art...ifferent-backs

In terms of pricing, I know that P42 has not held up to the 8X that I originally assigned. It’s more like 4X now. I’m sure some other multipliers have changed for better or worse.

Also, the back multiplier for HOFers is (and always has been) less than advertised—typically about half. So for example if a Ganzel CB sells for 25X a Jimmy Collins CB might sell for 12.5X.

[MR RAREBACK]

brown hindu's are up

[bigred1]

need to check my backs, great information

[53toppscollector]

Thanks for that link.

The interesting thing about the Piedmont 42 backs is that they SHOULD command a pretty big multiple, imo. When I last did my combined population report update (PSA + SGC) a few months ago, I had 73 subjects that had at least 1 example of a factory 42.

The front with the highest population was the Red Cobb, with 29 combined copies between PSA and SGC. By comparison, there are 474 Polar Bears, 68 Sov350s, 84 Tolstois, and 173 Old Mills of the Red Cobb.

The average combined population for the 73 different cards is 7. There are 23 cards with a pop of 5 or less. Baker has a pop of 5, compared to his Hindu Red (11), his AB 350WF (27), his Cycle 460 (12), and the 5 is the same count for his Broadleaf 460. I'd imagine the BL460 would sell for a ton more, despite them having the same scarcity within the back run.

Lajoie With Bat is the same deal. P42 pop is just 3, whereas the Uzit has a pop of 4 and the AB460 has a pop of 8.

[tedzan]

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

The interesting thing about the Piedmont 42 backs is that they SHOULD command a pretty big multiple, imo. When I last did my combined population report update (PSA + SGC) a few months ago, I had 73 subjects that had at least 1 example of a factory 42.

Hi James

My tally regarding the PIEDMONT 460 Factory #42 is 72 subjects. How did you come up with 73 ?

Checklist......

350/460 Series............63 subjects

Ames (hands over head)
Baker
Bender (no trees)
Berger
Bradley (bat)
M. Brown (Chicago)
Burch (fielding)
Chance (yellow portrait)
Chase (blue portrait)
Chase (dark cap)
Cobb (red portrait)
Cobb (bat off shoulder)
Conroy (bat)
Davis (A's)
Crawford (bat)
Donlin (bat)
Doolan (bat)
Dougherty (arm in air)
Downey (bat)
Larry Doyle (bat)

Elberfeld (Washington-fielding)
Evers (bat-yellow sky)
Griffith (bat)
Jennings (one hand)
Jennings (both hands)
Johnson (pitching)
Jordan (bat)
Joss (pitching)
Kleinow (Boston)
Konetchy (glove low)
Lajoie (bat)
Lake (no ball)
Leach (cap)
Leifield (bat)
Magee (bat)
Manning (pitching)
Mathewson (dark cap)
McIntyre (Brooklyn & Chicago)
McQuillan (bat)
Mullin (bat)

Murphy (bat)
O'Leary (hands on knees)
Overall (yellow sky)
Pelty (vertical)
Pfeister (throwing)
Reulbach (no glove)
Rucker (throwing)
Seymour (throwing)
F. Smith (Chicago & Boston)
Snodgrass (catching)
Stahl (glove)
Steinfeldt (bat)
Street (catching)
Sweeney (fielding)
Tinker (bat off shoulder)
Wagner (bat on right)
White (pitching)
Wilhelm (bat)
Willetts
Willis (bat)

Willis (throwing)
Wiltse (throwing)
CYoung (glove)



460-only Series............9 subjects

Chase (Trophy)
Latham
Marquard (follow thru)
Merkle (throwing)
Schlei (portrait)
Schlei (batting)
Schaefer (Washington)
Seymour (portrait)
Wiltse (portrait-cap)



TED Z

T206 Reference
.

[Rhotchkiss]

I have a complete t206 tinker bat off back run (don’t have t214). It started because I bought the Uzit and I figured I had the toughest so why not shoot the moon? The brown Lenox was most difficult, and I believe is a 1 of 1. But aside from the that and the Uzit, which is wicked rare but was easy bc it was the first I got, the Pied fact 42, the AB 460, and SC 350, 25 were the most difficult.

Here is link to the back run: https://www.flickr.com/photos/156271...57703248205622

I totally overpaid for my Pied fact 42, which is a relative beater. When I got it, there were two known and people one had 3 sides trimmed to the picture (it’s been on eBay for years). Then last year a very pretty mid-grade popped up and my buddy bought it for 1/3 of what o paid for mine 4 years earlier.

Bottom line Pied fact 42 does not get anything close to the premium it should based on rarity alone. That’s probably bc it’s still a Piedmont and most people don’t care about the factory (or series), especially in Piedmont and sweet cap.

[53toppscollector]

Ted, the one I had in my spreadsheet that isn't on your list is Murray (Portrait)

PSA shows 1 graded, a 1.5. T206resource also includes Murray Portrait on the P42 checklist

[tedzan]

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

Ted, the one I had in my spreadsheet that isn't on your list is Murray (Portrait)

PSA shows 1 graded, a 1.5. T206resource also includes Murray Portrait on the P42 checklist

James

Over the past 16 years, I have helped two Net54 guys complete their PIEDMONT #42 runs; and, we have compared notes. Years ago, we thought Murray/P#42 existed.
But, these two guys never found a Murray (portrait) card with a #42 back.

We are convinced PSA's pop report in this case is in error.


TED Z

T206 Reference
.

[Pat R]

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

Ted, the one I had in my spreadsheet that isn't on your list is Murray (Portrait)

PSA shows 1 graded, a 1.5. T206resource also includes Murray Portrait on the P42 checklist

Hi James,

It's a PSA label error, I posted a scan of it in Ted's T206 reference thread it's in the "Thread Hi-Jacked" section.

Murray mis-labeled PD factory 42.jpg

[53toppscollector]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Bottom line Pied fact 42 does not get anything close to the premium it should based on rarity alone. That’s probably bc it’s still a Piedmont and most people don’t care about the factory (or series), especially in Piedmont and sweet cap.

Agree, but here is why that is odd to me. Back collectors are a niche within the T206 set. Most people probably don't care about the backs at all, and that is cool. But if you are putting together back runs, you obviously have researched the various backs, you know what goes into it, you understand scarcity. So it is weird that a very scarce back like Piedmont 42 would be so undervalued, relatively speaking.

I sort of equate back collectors to sharp bettors in Vegas. They look below the surface and have requisite knowledge to parse out the rarity and scarcity numbers. I can understand "the public" breezing right past the P42s because "its just a Piedmont back" but back collectors are savvy and understand the different between a Sweet Cap 350/25 and a 30, and they definitely know the difference between a P42 back and a Piedmont 25 back.

Based on my numbers (which are a few months old), there are 526 total examples of P42 backs spread out among the 73 subjects I have data for. Here is how that stacks up with the rarer backs:

Carolina Brights: 883
Broadleaf 350: 619
P42: 526
Lenox Black: 479
Hindu Red: 322
Uzit: 298
Drum: 249
Broadleaf 460: 101

Would you have guessed there were more BL350s out there than Piedmont Factory 42s?