Jacob deGrom most Ks in first 200 games

Peter_Spaeth · #1 08-10-2022, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G1911

Yes. Hence why I contextualized "in the current sense" as the job is markedly different.

They just closed a bigger opening, or something like that.

Peter_Spaeth · #2 08-10-2022, 01:06 PM

Maybe in the future, as has been speculated already by some here although they may have been facetious, we will have an opener instead of a starter -- a guy whose job is to pitch the first inning.

G1911 · #3 08-10-2022, 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Maybe in the future, as has been speculated already by some here although they may have been facetious, we will have an opener instead of a starter -- a guy whose job is to pitch the first inning.

I would think the long term path is that no pitcher will throw more than 3 innings at most, because the data suggests effectiveness recedes every time a hitter sees the same pitcher again that day. I don't doubt that this is true and that the new ways are more objectively efficient to producing wins in context than the old ways, but it's not as fun, personally.

Peter_Spaeth · #4 08-10-2022, 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G1911

I would think the long term path is that no pitcher will throw more than 3 innings at most, because the data suggests effectiveness recedes every time a hitter sees the same pitcher again that day. I don't doubt that this is true and that the new ways are more objectively efficient to producing wins in context than the old ways, but it's not as fun, personally.

But isn't that offset by the fact that your starter is a better pitcher than the journeyman who replaces him? I admit not to knowing the data, but I can't believe it would pay to yank Pedro Martinez in the 4th in factor of some fungible castoff.

packs · #5 08-10-2022, 01:23 PM

You'd have to expand rosters too. I believe there's a limit of 13 pitchers right now.

G1911 · #6 08-10-2022, 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

But isn't that offset by the fact that your starter is a better pitcher than the journeyman who replaces him? I admit not to knowing the data, but I can't believe it would pay to yank Pedro Martinez in the 4th in factor of some fungible castoff.

Yes, and no. Most relievers are failed starters, yet they produce better ERA's than most starting pitchers largely because of this factor; they present a change to the batter that requires adjustment, can go all out, and don't have to think about anything but throwing to just a handful of guys. Even the best pitchers in baseball are allowed to throw less and less innings every single year. Only 4 pitchers reached 200 innings, because even the best are less effective with every round through the batting order, and they are pulled earlier and earlier for an assortment of journeyman, specialists, and context-depending relievers that excel in certain situations.

Of course, things are a little different if you're looking at a guy like Pedro whose a generational talent and possibly the most dominant pitcher of all time. The very best might get to go twice through the order, but the trend of the last 70 years of decreasing pitching time and using more pitchers for this reason seems to me almost inevitable that it will eventually reach its ultimate logical conclusion. My money is on that rosters will keep expanding, and the data analytics will only take over the remaining bits of the game it hasn't already.

packs · #7 08-10-2022, 01:38 PM

I would think part of the reason less pitchers threw 200 innings last year is due in some part to the shortened season the year before, no?

G1911 · #8 08-10-2022, 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs

I would think part of the reason less pitchers threw 200 innings last year is due in some part to the shortened season the year before, no?

I don't see how 2020 being short would reduce the ability of starters to throw 200 innings the next year.

It's somewhat irrelevant to the point - starting pitcher innings are going down, down, down and have for a century, because of this realization.

G1911 · #9 08-10-2022, 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

They just closed a bigger opening, or something like that.

I think the old relievers produced much, much more value to their teams, just as old starters did. Marshall hurled more innings than any starter does today. It's hard to produce true value on par with the older guys when they are allowed to throw so little these days. Marshall, Gossage, Lyle, none of them were middle relievers in any real sense.

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