Recession and effect on cards

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by JustinD

Avoid anyone who tells you they can factually predict the future.

Now who can argue with that? We are all just:



Except for those with political agendas:



Past experience is that cards go into a decline some time after the start of what turns out to be a recession. In the Great Recession it took about a year from the start of the cascade of real estate defaults to the card market declining. Pretty simple why:



I agree that some parts of the card market are not tethered to the business cycle. I had an interesting conversation with a reporter who covers art (her son is way into cards and she was referred to me by a family member). She said that the art world no longer talks about cyclical investments in blue-chip art because the proliferation of extremely wealthy people across the world who are essentially insulated from economic cycles has led to a constant market. I suspect we are there with the really expensive cards. People who can drop $100K on a card aren't going to be hurt by inflation or a recession.



"It's good to be the king."

The rest of us...



All I can think is that with such a strong card market it is the time to empty out the doubles and trade boxes and sell off the half-finished projects we all start then abandon, etc. What the 50 year history of the hobby does tell us, though, is that you hold the best cards and use the dip in the market to get more of them.

One other thing we also know from history is that collectors will sit on their collections when values fall, unless they have to sell.



Peace, out