Printing More Money vs. High Card Prices

Seven · #1 02-22-2021, 09:37 AM

Leon,

I'm by no means an expert, while I do think the stimulus checks shouldered a little bit of the blame early on, I'm thinking now it's more because people are looking to cards as an investment opportunity and big money is getting thrown into the Hobby by people who would normally spend it on other things.

We still have portions of the Nation who do not feel safe traveling, or going out of there house, but still earning an income, the end result, I think is that money gets poured into the hobby. Combine that with the fact people see rising prices as an "investment opportunity" so new money starts entering from people who don't really know what a reasonable price is for a card and we get this result.

We also have the issue of card prices shooting up on various older players that are still alive because people want to capitalize on their eventual demise. Look what is happening to Mays' cards ever since Aaron died.

I have not been in this hobby for nearly as long as half the people on this forum, but frankly I do not think it's sustainable, at all. I do think some of the high end Vintage stars will maintain their value, but we see some sort of correction eventually.

frankbmd · #2 02-22-2021, 09:49 AM

Yawl is a sailboat.

rats60 · #3 02-22-2021, 10:12 AM

I agree that all the printing of money has caused prices to rise. I noticed prices on modern cards taking off when stimulus checks hit and now some of that is flowing into vintage. Also, people not being able to spend money in recreational areas frees up money for cards. If you didn't spend money on season tickets or vacations, why not put it in cards. It has also created a volatile stock market and people are looking to diversify into other investments like cards. There are plenty of influencers who got in at floor levels that are really pushing cards as investments.

packs · #4 02-22-2021, 10:19 AM

I don't know if I understand how stimulus checks are related. Personally, I've received less than $2,000 the entire pandemic. I don't see how that would open a door for me to buy a 20K card.

jayshum · #5 02-22-2021, 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs

I don't know if I understand how stimulus checks are related. Personally, I've received less than $2,000 the entire pandemic. I don't see how that would open a door for me to buy a 20K card.

I agree. People who can afford to pay 5 and 6 figures for cards are probably not doing it with stimulus money.

JohnnyKilroy · #6 02-22-2021, 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jayshum

I agree. People who can afford to pay 5 and 6 figures for cards are probably not doing it with stimulus money.

The question is not about the stimulus money that people received. You are correct, people are not spending 1200, or whatever they got, on big cards. The question is about the fed �stimulating� the economy buy continuously printing money to keep us from imploding. So yes.. without a doubt.. it is a HUGE player in driving card prices up. I have to run, but I will explain later if someone doesn�t beat me to it.

Leon · #7 02-22-2021, 10:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnnyKilroy

The question is not about the stimulus money that people received. You are correct, people are not spending 1200, or whatever they got, on big cards. The question is about the fed �stimulating� the economy buy continuously printing money to keep us from imploding. So yes.. without a doubt.. it is a HUGE player in driving card prices up. I have to run, but I will explain later if someone doesn�t beat me to it.

Correct. I got 600 dollars. That isn't going to buy much nowadays in nice cards. It's the feeling and sentiment of easy money that is my thought on the subject.

.

FrozenInferno · #8 02-22-2021, 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnnyKilroy

The question is not about the stimulus money that people received. You are correct, people are not spending 1200, or whatever they got, on big cards. The question is about the fed �stimulating� the economy buy continuously printing money to keep us from imploding. So yes.. without a doubt.. it is a HUGE player in driving card prices up. I have to run, but I will explain later if someone doesn�t beat me to it.

A couple thousand in a stimulus check is not going towards a $20k card, but a lot of people took that money months ago and put it into a card or cards of some sort and those cards may have increased in value greatly in the months since. It's very plausible that if someone put $2k into the right card that it could be worth $10k today, and after flipping said card they can turn around and put the profits into something they deem to be safer such as a great vintage card.

The recent surge in vintage coincided with a drop in a lot of modern cards. I think a lot of flippers who were playing the game buying modern cards like Luka in basketball started seeing how volatile that game could be when these current players struggle to live up to hype in a real time season. I believe a lot of people made a lot of money during the last number of months flipping these commodity cards of modern players and now could be sitting on a five or even six-figure bankroll that allows them to ''get serious'' and begin buying safe blue chip vintage cards that have traditionally held and gained value over the long term and won't be susceptible to the up's and downs of an active player's career. Ruth, Mantle, Jordan, Gretzky, Aaron, whomever... These guys won't break their leg tomorrow and see their value plummet.

I can't say this is accounting for everything we're seeing but I can tell you this, I've been doing the exact same thing myself going back to December of 2019. I've turned my 12 years of modern collecting equity into some amazing vintage cards for my PC that I never thought I'd own.

puckpaul · #9 02-23-2021, 10:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnnyKilroy

The question is not about the stimulus money that people received. You are correct, people are not spending 1200, or whatever they got, on big cards. The question is about the fed �stimulating� the economy buy continuously printing money to keep us from imploding. So yes.. without a doubt.. it is a HUGE player in driving card prices up. I have to run, but I will explain later if someone doesn�t beat me to it.

Exactly. The money printing has everything to do with card prices. There is so much money around, especially at the high end of finance. Its overwhelming the supply when people want cards.

rats60 · #10 02-22-2021, 10:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs

I don't know if I understand how stimulus checks are related. Personally, I've received less than $2,000 the entire pandemic. I don't see how that would open a door for me to buy a 20K card.

There are people getting the full 3600, with another 2800 coming, that don't need that money. Add in money not spent on vacations, going to cards shows, going to games, going out to eat and to movies, etc and there is plenty of extra money being spent on cards.

It is not like this happened overnight. Stimulus checks started hitting last April. Vintage really started jumping in January. That is plenty of time for guys to flip cards and have 5 figures to buy cards. There were huge run ups in modern cards, especially basketball and Project 2020, last year and guys have moved from prospects into legends as more stable investments. This is not the whole cause, but is one of several major factors.

dio · #11 02-22-2021, 10:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rats60

There are people getting the full 3600, with another 2800 coming, that don't need that money. Add in money not spent on vacations, going to cards shows, going to games, going out to eat and to movies, etc and there is plenty of extra money being spent on cards.

It is not like this happened overnight. Stimulus checks started hitting last April. Vintage really started jumping in January. That is plenty of time for guys to flip cards and have 5 figures to buy cards. There were huge run ups in modern cards, especially basketball and Project 2020, last year and guys have moved from prospects into legends as more stable investments. This is not the whole cause, but is one of several major factors.

I think money first goes to modern. And some gain so much start moving asset to more conservative and know vintage is better long run. They saw vintage market is undervalue for so long.

packs · #12 02-22-2021, 10:59 AM

That's a lot of benchmarking and criteria to clear for stimulus money to have anything to do with a 20K card.

bnorth · #13 02-23-2021, 08:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rats60

There are people getting the full 3600, with another 2800 coming, that don't need that money. Add in money not spent on vacations, going to cards shows, going to games, going out to eat and to movies, etc and there is plenty of extra money being spent on cards.

It is not like this happened overnight. Stimulus checks started hitting last April. Vintage really started jumping in January. That is plenty of time for guys to flip cards and have 5 figures to buy cards. There were huge run ups in modern cards, especially basketball and Project 2020, last year and guys have moved from prospects into legends as more stable investments. This is not the whole cause, but is one of several major factors.

The stimulus checks are a smaller part. I have a few friends that got laid off. They are getting normal unemployment checks and a huge extra check every week. They are making WAY more money not working than they would make actually working. I could see this increasing the sales of cheaper(under 2K) cards but not the insane rise in the 2K+ cards.

egri · #14 02-22-2021, 08:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs

I don't know if I understand how stimulus checks are related. Personally, I've received less than $2,000 the entire pandemic. I don't see how that would open a door for me to buy a 20K card.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jayshum

I agree. People who can afford to pay 5 and 6 figures for cards are probably not doing it with stimulus money.

I don't think it impacts those cards, but it is enough to turn a $75 card into a $315 card, as another thread here was discussing. And if someone had spent their first check in the stock market when they got it, they could have enough to pick up a four-figure card, or get a good start on a five-figure one. With the tear the market has been on, someone could have relatively easily turned their stimulus check into a much bigger sum; QQQ was at $180 in March, and it closed today at $322. VOO bottomed out at $200 back then and closed at $355 today.

dio · #15 02-22-2021, 08:43 PM

And what happen when next stock market crash. They just going to print more. Unlimited QE. Asset inflation even more

dealme · #16 02-22-2021, 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rats60

I agree that all the printing of money has caused prices to rise. I noticed prices on modern cards taking off when stimulus checks hit and now some of that is flowing into vintage. Also, people not being able to spend money in recreational areas frees up money for cards. If you didn't spend money on season tickets or vacations, why not put it in cards. It has also created a volatile stock market and people are looking to diversify into other investments like cards. There are plenty of influencers who got in at floor levels that are really pushing cards as investments.

I think this is really a good point. While many people have been been greatly impacted financially by the pandemic (or more accurately the response to it), many others have not. Those that have not been negatively affected by the situation likely have disposable income that in the past was spent on tickets, vacations, etc. Some of that disposable income is now being spent on cards. Plus, at least with some of the higher dollar examples, it would seem that cards are now a trendy place to park ones investment dollar.

#17 02-22-2021, 06:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by frankbmd

Yawl is a sailboat.

It ain't a boat in Texas. LOL.

#18 02-22-2021, 06:16 PM

I think if the world ever gets back to normal and people start traveling and going out again regularly it will slow down some. We for example cancelled a Disney trip and another vacation to the tune of about ten grand. People are bored and cards are a good distraction and can be done from the comfort and safety of home. I also think there is a faction out there of rich folks making it cool to invest in cards. After the dust settles it'll be like any other collectable market and a lot of folks will move on to something else much like the junk card era or other collectable/investment booms. Vintage will always hold value especially the really cherry stuff but I think in time the hobby will correct itself and this current insanity will run it's course.

Tao_Moko · #19 02-22-2021, 08:17 PM

My primary clients are farmers, but a huge uptick in web sales for home gardeners when stimulus checks hit. In my case, printed money became a sense of food security for folks all over North America. Also, a form of mental security to combat the stresses of isolation. I believe hobbies, including cards, are experiencing the same impact. One man's hobby is another's business.

frankbmd · #20 02-24-2021, 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wimberleycardcollector

It ain't a boat in Texas. LOL.

A yawl in Texas is definitely not a "ketch".

But you can "catch" a yawl with a stinkpot. Trust me.

MooseDog · #21 02-22-2021, 10:07 AM

Short answer to Leon... not directly. However the easy money is somewhat related as I do believe that the stock market is more likely tied to the rise in card prices. There are an awful lot of people in the US that make far, far more money and have far greater assets than they or their families will EVER be able to spend. Nobody NEEDS $1B, let alone hundreds of millions. At some point it's just a way to keep score and the whole concept of money as reality goes away.

Some with unlimited resources just want stuff and will outbid anyone else...well, because they can. And it only takes two to tango in an auction.

Imagine if Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos decided they wanted a certain high-end marquee card!

I also believe there is a certain level of "pump and dump" action going on.

My 2 cents.

FWIW I'm in the bottom 50% statistically, and got both stimulus payments of which 100% went to pay bills.

iwantitiwinit · #22 02-22-2021, 11:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MooseDog

Short answer to Leon... not directly. However the easy money is somewhat related as I do believe that the stock market is more likely tied to the rise in card prices. There are an awful lot of people in the US that make far, far more money and have far greater assets than they or their families will EVER be able to spend. Nobody NEEDS $1B, let alone hundreds of millions. At some point it's just a way to keep score and the whole concept of money as reality goes away.

Some with unlimited resources just want stuff and will outbid anyone else...well, because they can. And it only takes two to tango in an auction.

Imagine if Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos decided they wanted a certain high-end marquee card!

I also believe there is a certain level of "pump and dump" action going on.

My 2 cents.

FWIW I'm in the bottom 50% statistically, and got both stimulus payments of which 100% went to pay bills.

In my opinion this is 100pct accurate. It's not individuals getting stimulus checks, it's the new super wealthy that have significantly increased in number as a result of crypto price surge, the proliferation of spac issuance that instantly enriches the sponsor, real estate strength, etc. They are buying immense quantities of hard assets from the extremely rare to the limited quantity luxury items. Stories of individuals buying a ferrari dealership out of their entire inventory, super yacht shortages, low if non existent waterfront properties in prime locations. This will result in hyper inflation and will filter down into what was previously thought of as things that were considered available though somewhat limited in quantity to those making a decent living but were not wealthy. Things as simple as say lobsters (dont laugh), or BMWs, relatively fine wine etc. It is all going to be bought up.

packs · #23 02-22-2021, 11:09 AM

I haven't seen a very good explanation for why a person with no previous interest in cards would suddenly decide they needed a 1953 Topps Satchel Paige.

I really don't see why there is a POV that the uninitiated are driving up prices. A 52 mantle, a T206 Wagner, sure, those kinds of cards will appeal to the same layman that Picasso does to people who don't collect art.

What drives a guy to buy a 1950 Bowman Jackie Robinson?

Johnny630 · #24 02-22-2021, 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs

I haven't seen a very good explanation for why a person with no previous interest in cards would suddenly decide they needed a 1953 Topps Satchel Paige.

I really don't see why there is a POV that the uninitiated are driving up prices. A 52 mantle, a T206 Wagner, sure, those kinds of cards will appeal to the same layman that Picasso does to people who don't collect art.

What drives a guy to buy a 1950 Bowman Jackie Robinson?

One Word MONEY

packs · #25 02-22-2021, 01:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny630

One Word MONEY

But that's not realistic. How would some everyman be driven to buy esoteric collector cards without being a collector?

There are no newly initiated people driving up the prices for many issues that have spiked. It doesn't make sense that they would look anywhere else but prime time for something they know nothing about.

If I'm getting into art, I'm not asking to see someone's Lucien Freud collection. I might have heard of Andy Warhol though.

Directly · #26 02-22-2021, 01:42 PM

Cash is trash!!

Fuddjcal · #27 02-22-2021, 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs

I haven't seen a very good explanation for why a person with no previous interest in cards would suddenly decide they needed a 1953 Topps Satchel Paige.

I really don't see why there is a POV that the uninitiated are driving up prices. A 52 mantle, a T206 Wagner, sure, those kinds of cards will appeal to the same layman that Picasso does to people who don't collect art.

What drives a guy to buy a 1950 Bowman Jackie Robinson?

Because they "always liked Jackie" and they want to collect them all? Never a Bowman fan, but wanted this one in my collection. Not so much the trimmed leaf rookie or ugly 49.

I think many small business's, received gigantic PPP loans that you don't have to pay back. They were discharged pretty quickly and free $$$ to the wealthy, I hear.

todeen · #28 02-23-2021, 02:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fuddjcal

Because they "always liked Jackie" and they want to collect them all? Never a Bowman fan, but wanted this one in my collection. Not so much the trimmed leaf rookie or ugly 49.

I think many small business's, received gigantic PPP loans that you don't have to pay back. They were discharged pretty quickly and free $$$ to the wealthy, I hear.

I agree, Jackie Robinson has transcended the hobby. Someone wants an early card of Jackie, can't afford his late 40s cards, but can afford the 50 Bowman.

However, I understand what you meant, I just think you chose the wrong name. Maybe you meant Warren Spahn, or Gaylord Perry, or Bob Feller......

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk

sportscardpete · #29 02-23-2021, 06:17 AM

$600 Stimulus checks are not causing Jordan rookies to go from $20,000 to $700,000.

rats60 · #30 02-22-2021, 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iwantitiwinit

In my opinion this is 100pct accurate. It's not individuals getting stimulus checks, it's the new super wealthy that have significantly increased in number as a result of crypto price surge, the proliferation of spac issuance that instantly enriches the sponsor, real estate strength, etc. They are buying immense quantities of hard assets from the extremely rare to the limited quantity luxury items. Stories of individuals buying a ferrari dealership out of their entire inventory, super yacht shortages, low if non existent waterfront properties in prime locations. This will result in hyper inflation and will filter down into what was previously thought of as things that were considered available though somewhat limited in quantity to those making a decent living but were not wealthy. Things as simple as say lobsters (dont laugh), or BMWs, relatively fine wine etc. It is all going to be bought up.

Why can't it be both?

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