Card prices skyrocketing

[cardsagain74]

These points of view never cease to amaze me:

- "I don't care if the value of my assets drop"

- "The gains are only on paper"

Something's liquid worth is what matters, regardless of whether or not it's "on paper". It doesn't matter what you paid (except for tax purposes).

And as far as hoping that your cards will lose a lot of their value.....I get if someone wants to focus on just collecting, but there's so much more to a market collapsing other than "being able to buy more of what you want".

Dealers' livelihoods are harmed. People will have less of an estate to leave to their heirs. Or some may hope to liquidate some of their collection to make their retirement better.

There's a lot more to it than flippers losing their ass and exiting the market

[Tyruscobb]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

These points of view never cease to amaze me:

- "I don't care if the value of my assets drop"

- "The gains are only on paper"

Something's liquid worth is what matters, regardless of whether or not it's "on paper". It doesn't matter what you paid (except for tax purposes).

And as far as hoping that your cards will lose a lot of their value.....I get if someone wants to focus on just collecting, but there's so much more to a market collapsing other than "being able to buy more of what you want".

Dealers' livelihoods are harmed. People will have less of an estate to leave to their heirs. Or some may hope to liquidate some of their collection to make their retirement better.

There's a lot more to it than flippers losing their ass and exiting the market

My views are just that - mine. I’m a baseball card collector; not a flipper, speculator, or investor. I intend to die with every card that I purchase and couldn’t care less if they all went to $0.00. I would still enjoy owning them and looking at them.

I do not view them as asserts. I only purchase cards with money I am willing to part ways with and never recover. If others do not do the same that is their business and problem.

As far as a collapse, all I want is for prices to return to pre-COVID, normal levels. I guess you’ve never shorted a stock? If you have, you do realize you are rooting for the stock to crater, which affects other people’s life’s and potentially everything you mentioned, right?

[Exhibitman]

If the idea of a pullback from the current sales prices is disconcerting then the answer is simple: sell it all. Take the profit and ride out the next downturn.

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by Tyruscobb

My views are just that - mine. I’m a baseball card collector; not a flipper, speculator, or investor. I intend to die with every card that I purchase and couldn’t care less if they all went to $0.00. I would still enjoy owning them and looking at them.

I do not view them as asserts. I only purchase cards with money I am willing to part ways with and never recover. If others do not do the same that is their business and problem.

As far as a collapse, all I want is for prices to return to pre-COVID, normal levels. I guess you’ve never shorted a stock? If you have, you do realize you are rooting for the stock to crater, which affects other people’s life’s and potentially everything you mentioned, right?

I know they're your views. If you choose not to place monetary value on your possessions that have it, that's totally up to you. Saying that it amazes me is not telling others what to do.

And yes, I would be aware of that if I shorted a stock. Have never had to consider that dilemma, because it's never been a part of my trading.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

I know they're your views. If you choose not to place monetary value on your possessions that have it, that's totally up to you. Saying that it amazes me is not telling others what to do.

And yes, I would be aware of that if I shorted a stock. Have never had to consider that dilemma, because it's never been a part of my trading.

Some guys bet "dont pass" at the craps table. Sure they're hated by the whole table, but the strategy is there for a reason. Looking toward the future, I'd have to say it would be a little depressing to me if cards went to 0, like a stock going to 0. Sure it's fun to say you owned it, and cards you can look at, but that money has been lost, for good. I cant imagine people's families would think "because it made you happy" it was ok to waste money on yourself, while taking time away from them, and it does sorting, looking, buying , regardless of how much wealth one may have.


For some people selling now would enable them to pay off their house, buy a house, diversify into other long term investments. I just cant see a place where it is hold forever, albeit the inevitable will happen along the way. My only question if I sold everything would be "what's next".

In short, I'd love to add a 52 mantle, but wont feel bad about not having one, more so at these prices. If there is some crash, I may revisit, but to me the price not justifiable. No FOMO here!

[Rich Klein]

Not just BB Cards that people are afraid are in a bubble.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s?srnd=premium

[Oscar_Stanage]

Originally Posted by Rich Klein

Not just BB Cards that people are afraid are in a bubble.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s?srnd=premium

the jump in interest rates spooked parts of the market last week and is on top of the list of risks for any investor. There is no doubt that if stocks rollover, the card market will do the same, and in a more violent fashion.

that said, as long as the Fed is determined to pin rates at zero, it just makes sense to be invested in stocks and other risky assets like coins, cards, etc.

the jump in rates at this point is more due to inflation fear than actual inflation.. i think at the point we see stronger evidence of the latter, that will be the true catalyst.

[joshuanip]

Originally Posted by Wid_Conroy

the jump in interest rates spooked parts of the market last week and is on top of the list of risks for any investor. There is no doubt that if stocks rollover, the card market will do the same, and in a more violent fashion.

that said, as long as the Fed is determined to pin rates at zero, it just makes sense to be invested in stocks and other risky assets like coins, cards, etc.

the jump in rates at this point is more due to inflation fear than actual inflation.. i think at the point we see stronger evidence of the latter, that will be the true catalyst.

Stock market is taking a rest from a remarkable run since elections (which feels like a correction in a one way bull market). Since elections, its been the reflation trade - rising commodity/energy prices, higher inflation expectations, and indigestion in the long end of the yield curve. All based on extreme fiscal stimulus, continued accommodative monetary conditions, commodity infrastructure underinvestment, supply chain disruption (ie semi chips), and pentup demand from reopening. You factor in 5% gdp expectations this year and above normal next, people are expecting increased velocity of $, pushing inflation higher.

I believe we will see transitory inflation for reasons above. But we are nowhere close to full employment, and the uneven distribution of wealth from asset reflation is an unbalanced economy that will not allow a level of sustained inflation over the short/intermediate term that would force the fed to change course over the next 3 years. And sure we are finally seeing a rise in real yield (nominal less inflation), but for perspective we rose from negative real yields to zero, a step away from Japanification, but not an endorsement of a secular rise in real yields. Bottom line asset/commodity prices are rising, wages are not, squeezing the have nots and keeping the system accommodative.

Bringing it back to cards, the last couple of cycles since the 90’s card bubble have shown real yields, demand for liquidity and employment are arguably equally (if not more) strong coefficients to vintage card prices than the stock market’s wealth effect and speculation factor.

Cards are a non-income producing, store-of-wealth asset. In that sense, moderate inflation is positive and real rates are negative to card prices. And while real yields have increased from negative rates, it’s still zero... while inflation expectations are rising dramatically (the fed is welcoming this as they want to run hot over their 2% target). This is supportive for cards.

Demand for liquidity is another factor on supply. Cards are a a source of liquidity and as the demand for liquidity increase so do the available cards in the market. Right now, the Fed electronically flooded the system with liquidity and the excess liquidity spilled over into the card market. The Fed has telegraphed accommodative conditions to 2024 (and the other central banks are in concert with that timeline - a race to zero in their respective fiat currencies), and probably yield curve control thereafter (because of our unbalanced risks). So I expect general liquidity to continue to be extraordinary (as we follow the longer term paths of Weimar/Argentina, where debt can be only repaid thru reflation, or dimished purchasing power of the currency used to pay back the debt). To put into perspective, we tried to unwind the fed’s balance sheet in 2013, but had to do a course correct as the market threw a tantrum, and again in 2018. The fed’s balance sheet in 2013, 2018, and today was 3 Trillion, 4T and 7.4T, respectively. Add the trillion dollar annual deficit the treasury will run - putting us deeper in the hole and making it more impossible for us to get out conventionally.

Employment is a distorted signal right now. In the past, it was (and will again be) a factor for liquidity demand, impacting the amount of card supply. But in our situation, we have a moratorium to pay rent and student loans, receive expanded unemployment and stimulus checks, and business loan forgiveness. There is suppressed demand for liquidity in a time where the system is flooded for liquidity. At the more intermediate term, our employment rate has improved, but we still have tons of slack from an elevated rate and lower labor force participation. We have a long way to go to bring us back to full employment, so the fed will continue to be accommodative, and possibly resort to yield curve control (which suppresses the real yields not inflation), once the stimulus sugar highs wear off. This is also supporting card prices.

But will a market correction have a significant adverse affect on vintage card prices? The market has experienced significant market multiple expansion since 2018 - all the way to 2000 dot com bubble levels. We can be in a flat and skinny scenario, where the stock market stalls as the earnings grow into its valuation, but the conditions for card prices (and assets) remain supportive as we continue to transfer private debt into public debt, run hot on inflation with suppressed real yields.

I’m not saying we will not correct in a stock market correction. There is too much speculation right now in this card market not not have “beta” with the equity markets. But the extent of the impact is more micro within the card market (ie prewar will have less beta than modern due to the difference in magnitude of their price increases and the marketplace players are simply different - modern is more “hot” money). I do believe certain prewar card prices have transitioned into new levels for the reasons above, which will prove to be more stable than we would expect if we have a small correction in the market. That said I’m taking this extraordinary demand and liquidity to reposition my collection even more so to key players that would retain liquidity and value over the longer term. By the end of this, I’ll probably just end up owning nothing but Cobbs and Ruths.

-biased viewpoints from a HODL(er)