Current Market Conditions - Question

[Johnny630]

I think Quality Stuff is only going to continue to go up unless the US Economy go through a steep decline. The next 12-18 months should be smooth after that who knows.

[hcv123]

1) I believe when we were all locked down at home - many people started "cleaning" closets, attics, basements, etc. This resulted in many people "finding" cards - Some of these people were sparked to dive back into the hobby. Some of these people used it as an opportunity to sell their collections.

Something that I haven't seen posted here yet that I have noticed is there has been a pretty large amount of "fresh" material that has entered the market in the wake of Covid.

2) As mentioned in other posts, I believe the "cream rises to the top" and the top players in top condition will hold their value well and have the greatest possibility of continuing to climb.

3) The larger economics of eventual rising inflation will be a dollar that buys less - That lends itself to values of a hard asset like a baseball card increasing.

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by hcv123

As mentioned in other posts, I believe the "cream rises to the top" and the top players in top condition will hold their value well and have the greatest possibility of continuing to climb.

Yep, other than the "cream" (Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Jackie R, Clemente), most second-tier quality post-war material that's below PSA 8, despite having a great 2020, still isn't worth more than it was during the junk wax era. Especially the '60s - '80s.

Cards (in nr. mt or below) like Bench and Schmidt rookies are worth the same today as they were 30 years ago. Even the best three cards of that era (Rose, Ryan, and Seaver rookies) have only doubled in that time period. Seaver's '68 was $250 in the Beckett back then. You can still get a nice PSA 7 now for 200 after covid.

The perception in the hobby is that just about everything has gone so much higher than ever this year (except for maybe during high-end card market bubble around 2016-17), but the reality is that, as you said, only the cream of post-war vintage has hit crazy new top prices.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

I think Quality Stuff is only going to continue to go up unless the US Economy go through a steep decline. The next 12-18 months should be smooth after that who knows.

This is a big change in opinion, no? I agree with you. But I recall many adamant posts by you a while back to sell, sell, sell and that we are headed for a crash. Why have you now changed your mind?

Regarding the OP’s topic, see a thread a started a week or so ago asking new people to the site why they have started collecting/returned to the hobby after a hiatus. Many were bored during Lockdowns and came across cards some way or another and it sparked/re-lit a flame. I think that, and the fact that cards are increasingly more often considered a viable alternative investment, is why the hobby has become a market.

[mintacular]

I started watching YouTube content for cards in midyear 2019 and also a few podcasts. By early 2020 (right before COVID), the amount of new channels / investors, etc. EXPLODED. I think this type of exposure to the hobby changed the landscape forever and COVID spiked interest further. In short, the ability to showcase your cards / get the online "pat on the back" has made collecting cards into something even your wildest dreams couldn't fulfill

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

This is a big change in opinion, no? I agree with you. But I recall many adamant posts by you a while back to sell, sell, sell and that we are headed for a crash. Why have you now changed your mind?

Regarding the OP’s topic, see a thread a started a week or so ago asking new people to the site why they have started collecting/returned to the hobby after a hiatus. Many were bored during Lockdowns and came across cards some way or another and it sparked/re-lit a flame. I think that, and the fact that cards are increasingly more often considered a viable alternative investment, is why the hobby has become a market.

I still think now is a great time to sell not the time to be chasing. Can also say I was wrong back when I said to sell everything the crash could be coming, now it looks like the complete opposite to me lol maybe now it’s time to sell idk.

Like a guy said about the Creme Ruth, Cobb, Jackie, and Mantle would hold these. These names are last cards anyone wants to sell and people who know nothing about Baseball or Cards know who those 4 guys are.

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Like a guy said about the Creme Ruth, Cobb, Jackie, and Mantle would hold these. These names are last cards anyone wants to sell and people who know nothing about Baseball or Cards know who those 4 guys are.

Too bad you didn't hold your Mantle rookie! That was a nice one!

[Seven]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

I still think now is a great time to sell not the time to be chasing. Can also say I was wrong back when I said to sell everything the crash could be coming, now it looks like the complete opposite to me lol maybe now it’s time to sell idk.

Like a guy said about the Creme Ruth, Cobb, Jackie, and Mantle would hold these. These names are last cards anyone wants to sell and people who know nothing about Baseball or Cards know who those 4 guys are.

Jackie saw a meteoric rise this year with all the stuff going on with the NBL. I still firmly believe that Mantle prices will see a slight decline as more of the people that idolize him, get up there in age, and eventually look to sell their Mantles, thus more of them hitting the market. Come to think of it the only mainstream cards of his that really set you back are the 52 Topps and 51 Bowman. Any of his other cards can be found in various conditions for 1K or less.

Ruth and Cobb will forever be big draws. Ruth more so because as well known as Cobb is, the Babe is the face of baseball in many ways, to the point where everyone knows who he is. Cobb is certainly the face of the Dead Ball Era IMO.

I still stand firmly by the belief that some prices will come down, post Covid. I suppose we'll revisit my opinion next December when things are back to normal.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

I think Quality Stuff is only going to continue to go up unless the US Economy go through a steep decline. The next 12-18 months should be smooth after that who knows.

Congress needs to act on funding for states. My city is going to get walloped if the state has to cut budgets. Between our penitentiary, DOT, teachers, highway patrol...we are not sitting pretty. State jobs are a major employer in my town. Our county has been running a deficit for at least two years. Besides that, my town is heavily reliant on wine tourism. We already took a big hit with fewer travelers. Recession could get worse if the pissing contest continues between the House and Senate.

Just like in the last recession, there were winners and losers. The losers were often rural communities. So we'll see how it plays out.

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[jboosted92]

Originally Posted by todeen

Congress needs to act on funding for states. My city is going to get walloped if the state has to cut budgets. Between our penitentiary, DOT, teachers, highway patrol...we are not sitting pretty. State jobs are a major employer in my town. Our county has been running a deficit for at least two years. Besides that, my town is heavily reliant on wine tourism. We already took a big hit with fewer travelers. Recession could get worse if the pissing contest continues between the House and Senate.

Just like in the last recession, there were winners and losers. The losers were often rural communities. So we'll see how it plays out.

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im sorry to hear that. i hope leaders get their sh1t together.