Should I send to SGC? '48 Paige ~ Opinions appreciated!

[Luke]

If you're just looking at it in financial terms, you're basically just looking at a math problem. The question is, "How much of a $ value increase, do you need to get when SGC gives this card a grade of 2 or higher, in order to break even on all the times you spend $500 and they return the card in the PSA holder.

The equation looks like this:

Break even = (% of the time SGC does not grade the card a 2 or higher)(-$500) + (% of the time SGC grades card a 2 or higher)(x)

Where x equals the value increase needed in order to break even

You can play around with the % chance that SGC gives you a 2 or higher.

In my opinion, it's next to impossible that SGC would grade this card a 2 or higher. Not impossible, but close. So for me, I would say it's about a 2% chance. Here's the math for 2%:

0 = (.98)(-500) + (.02)(x)

0 = -490 + .02x

subtract -490 from each side:

490 = .02x

divide both sides by .02

x=24,500

So at a 2% chance of receiving a 2 or higher, you'd need the vlaue increase from your PSA 1.5 to the new SGC holder to $24,500 in order to break even on the bet you're making.

If you think there's a 5% chance, you need the value increase to be $9500

At a 10% chance, you need the value increase to be $4500

Also, it's not really $500. Probably closer to $600 after you pay postage and insurance twice.

In my opinion you should keep it as is, and it's not really close.