Trout v. Legendary cards

[benjulmag]

The issue to me isn't that Trout is not a great baseball player, or not a great ambassador for the game. Nor is the issue that a person doesn't have the right to spend his/her money how he/she pleases. And if the individual who spent $4M for this card feels it is worth every penny of that based on how he/she values collectibles, who am I too judge?

Rather the issue to me is that the value derives from an intentionally created scarcity manufactured for the sole purpose of generating value.

So, one might ask, what is wrong with that if what in the end is created is a true 1/1 card of a once-in-generation player? Nothing, except what is to prevent a whole slew of newly-designed 1/1 cards for each new player to enter the league? And in addition to that do the same for all existing star players. Certainty the economic incentive will be there for the card manufacturers to do precisely that. It will be akin to a marketing strategy made in heaven.... at least short term. But isn't there a risk that if this were to happen collectors in time might begin to look at such 1/1s as representing not a 1/1, but instead view each 1/1 to be part of the same group? So, say, if in 20 years this has been done to all new players that entered the league in that period, and each player had four 1/1s created for him, and for all existing star players until they retired they too each year had four 1/1s created for them, instead of the Trout card being a 1/1, it instead might be viewed as more akin to 1/few thousand? And if so, maybe a lot of the luster of (i.e., demand for) the card will dissipate.

I can't predict the future any better than the next person, other than to opine that whatever it holds, the economic incentive that was placed on card manufacturers will play a significant role. And if what I have described in fact takes place, and what is to stop it, then for the Trout card to hold (or increase) its value it will need to be perceived as a different kind of 1/1 prototype. Again, maybe it will, but from the purely investment perspective (in contrast to the collecting perspective), IMO it is a very risky investment.