Analysis of PWCC Vintage Auction 10/13/19

[pokerplyr80]

Modern seems to be doing fine. At least on the high end. 200k for a Jeter card tonight.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

Modern seems to be doing fine. At least on the high end. 200k for a Jeter card tonight.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1996-Select...p2047675.l2557

[pokerplyr80]

That's the one. I remember a debate over which was more valuable, 93 sp in a 10 or that one. I guess that debate is settled.

[frankbmd]

Do the auction results of two bidders with snipes more than $50000 above the third bidder prove anything about the actual market value of the card? I would seriously question that conclusion.

[pokerplyr80]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

Do the auction results of two bidders with snipes more than $50000 above the third bidder prove anything about the actual market value of the card? I would seriously question that conclusion.

I show 6 unique bidders over $100k. And this is a pop 2 modern card in a 10, with a total pop of around 30. A modern white whale. I would argue plenty was proven about the market value of the card.

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

I show 6 unique bidders over $100k. And this is a pop 2 modern card in a 10, with a total pop of around 30. A modern white whale. I would argue plenty was proven about the market value of the card.

Both of the final bids also do not come from bidders with inflated statistics with one seller or a large number of bid retractions.

With a card this limited it is natural for only a few to push it to its highest point and I would agree with Frank if this was a more available card with an outlier sale due to only several bidders but on a card with such a limited number printed it says everything about the value of the card.

PWCC had close to 9,000 listings a few days ago when I looked. The party has not ended and isn't going to end.

People wan't to buy cards and will go to the source of those cards. After all they are closer to a stock exchange than a true card dealer.

[Rhotchkiss]

I know nothing about the modern market, and very little about the market for cards after 1930+/-, but with respect to the old-vintage (the stuff we talk about on net54), I believe PWCC has not been doing well of late. In my opinion, the pre-war offerings in the past three auctions have been inferior to what PWCC has previously offered, and the prices on many (not all) cards that I follow have been lower than historic. Regarding the offerings, I do believe a number of would-be-consignors have opted to hold off and/or consign elsewhere. This conclusion is based on both conversations with people and what I see being (or not being) offered in the past few auctions. Regarding prices, I believe there are several reasons for this: the sales tax argument is interesting, but it has not affected Heritage, and it has not really altered the way I buy, so based solely on those two points, I don’t think it’s a main reason. Instead, I think there is less shilling (perhaps pwcc is policing more now that they are under investigation) and I do believe less people are bidding.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

Both of the final bids also do not come from bidders with inflated statistics with one seller or a large number of bid retractions.

With a card this limited it is natural for only a few to push it to its highest point and I would agree with Frank if this was a more available card with an outlier sale due to only several bidders but on a card with such a limited number printed it says everything about the value of the card.

PWCC had close to 9,000 listings a few days ago when I looked. The party has not ended and isn't going to end.

People wan't to buy cards and will go to the source of those cards. After all they are closer to a stock exchange than a true card dealer.

If you were a company going public in need of $50,000,000, would you sell

A) 10,000,000 shares of stock for $5 a share in an IPO or

B) would you short print 25 pristine stock certificates in plastic cases impregnated with Joe Orlando’s saliva and verified by Spence and sell them for $2,000,000 each?

The players (in the market and in the Vault) may be the same, but how a short-printed modern, shiny piece of in cardboard is analogous to equity in a potentially very profitable start-up or in a Fortune 500 company for that matter eludes me,

but then again I will never be vault-worthy and my lack of understanding doesn’t bother me one iota.