2019 Chicago National: Best attendance since 1991 in Anaheim

[Vintagecatcher]

I think the question needs to asked...why do the promoters not
release specific attendance figures?

Furthermore, if they don't release the specific figures then where did Rich Mueller get the attendance figures he mentions in the article with regards to 1991 National in Anaheim?

Patrick

[Ronnie73]

I believe there are new collectors getting back into the hobby that left it in the early 1990's and that's why there are more attending the shows. Many of us were just kids or teenagers back in 1991. Now we are adults and can actually afford to visit a National show that we once only dreamed about. This is what I see at my local shows.

I think another bubble burst is coming in the next few years and that it's now leading up to that. I don't expect it to hurt true vintage much but we will take a hit. It's going to be mostly all this new sparkly stuff. I don't buy into them but I watch every new case break product that comes out. I have yet to see anything of actual long term value. Just last week I watched a new product case break and the case hit was a Roger Clemens Jersey Cut card. Maybe a $10 to $20 value coming out of a $1200+ case. Thousands of 1/1's each year being produced and people are acting as if they pulled a 52 Mantle. I'm already seeing many of the previous years chase cards loaded into $5 boxes at shows. These were the highlight cards that people were buying into a break for $40+ dollars. I just can't see this ending well. It's like we are in 1986 all over again except there are 100+ times the sets if you count the parallels. You can currently purchase autographed insert cards at shows for a dollar. It's already starting.

[topcat61]

Originally Posted by Ronnie73

I believe there are new collectors getting back into the hobby that left it in the early 1990's and that's why there are more attending the shows. Many of us were just kids or teenagers back in 1991. Now we are adults and can actually afford to visit a National show that we once only dreamed about. This is what I see at my local shows.

I think another bubble burst is coming in the next few years and that it's now leading up to that. I don't expect it to hurt true vintage much but we will take a hit. It's going to be mostly all this new sparkly stuff. I don't buy into them but I watch every new case break product that comes out. I have yet to see anything of actual long term value. Just last week I watched a new product case break and the case hit was a Roger Clemens Jersey Cut card. Maybe a $10 to $20 value coming out of a $1200+ case. Thousands of 1/1's each year being produced and people are acting as if they pulled a 52 Mantle. I'm already seeing many of the previous years chase cards loaded into $5 boxes at shows. These were the highlight cards that people were buying into a break for $40+ dollars. I just can't see this ending well. It's like we are in 1986 all over again except there are 100+ times the sets if you count the parallels. You can currently purchase autographed insert cards at shows for a dollar. It's already starting.

Honestly I'm okay with a market correction.I think the financial aspect of the hobby is getting in the way of collecting and pricing people out of the hobby. Certainly not what Buck Barker, Lionel Carter or Jefferson Burdick envisioned.

[Hankphenom]

'91 was my first of many Nationals and as I recall it was the promo card mania, with lots of local media attention on that, driving the attendance. Dealers were offering ridiculous money for the swag bags as people came out, and kids were getting in line and paying to get in multiple times to come back immediately and sell their bags with the promo cards inside. But here's my question: with decades of chase cards, insert cards, redemption cards, refractors, and all the rest of the card-company manufactured rarities behind us, have those proven to be either a good investment or collectible in their own right? If it's still going on as strongly as it seems from the reports this year, I guess it must have some history of success. Or is it just new generations of quick-buck exploiters and suckers that come along every few years? Do all the ones that can't find a chair when the music stops just quit the hobby so there is no institutional memory of these things to prevent the next wave? Even though I'm a memorabilia guy and not a card guy, I've never had any trouble understanding the appeal of vintage cards. And likewise, the enormity of the whole "chase cards" phenomenon has me as mystified today as it did when I first witnessed it almost 30 years ago. Could someone (probably much younger!) please explain all this to me?

[BeanTown]

I would love to see The National go back to Anaheim or maybe even Vegas (Unions there I believe). Then maybe once a decade somewhere in the SouthEast Region like Atlanta, Tampa, Orlando, New Orleans or even St Louis.

All these cities have convention centers and plenty of hotel rooms. Plus the accessibility to get there is pretty easy unlike Atlantic City.

[Steve_NY]

There are other circumstances that impact the decision to keep the National on the East Coast. One of those factors is that most of the East Coast booth holders would take a "once every five year bye" and pass the National for that year and continue to maintain their current priority. That happened the last time there was a National on the West Coast, and it would certainly happen again. I know that is tough on the West Coast sellers, but I think that losing a high percentage of East Coast dealers would have a tremendous impact on booth sales. Correct me if I am wrong, but I always have contended that there should be two Nationals every year -- one on the East Coast and one on the West Coast. That would keep everyone happy, and I might consider doing the West Coast National if I also had an East Coast one to fall back on. Just a thought.

Steve

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Steve_NY

There are other circumstances that impact the decision to keep the National on the East Coast. One of those factors is that most of the East Coast booth holders would take a "once every five year bye" and pass the National for that year and continue to maintain their current priority. That happened the last time there was a National on the West Coast, and it would certainly happen again. I know that is tough on the West Coast sellers, but I think that losing a high percentage of East Coast dealers would have a tremendous impact on booth sales. Correct me if I am wrong, but I always have contended that there should be two Nationals every year -- one on the East Coast and one on the West Coast. That would keep everyone happy, and I might consider doing the West Coast National if I also had an East Coast one to fall back on. Just a thought.

Steve

If the West Coast could support a 2nd National, it would have been started long ago. Depite having a strong collector base and dealer base, the East Coast didn't get a National until #5 and #9. Then it was 15 more years before its 3rd. In 40 years there have been only 6 on the East Coast, the same number as the West Coast. That is why Gloria Rothstein started the East Coast National. Of course back then Willow Grove was considered a "National" twice a year.

When the hobby was at its hottest, the West Coast shows weren't has good as Willow Grove, White Plains, Chicago, St. Louis, Plymouth, Cincinnati or Strongsville. Until the West Coast market catches up to that in the East and Midwest with strong shows attracting dealers from across the country, I don't see support for another National on the West Coast.

[RCMcKenzie]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

'91 was my first of many Nationals and as I recall it was the promo card mania, with lots of local media attention on that, driving the attendance. Dealers were offering ridiculous money for the swag bags as people came out, and kids were getting in line and paying to get in multiple times to come back immediately and sell their bags with the promo cards inside. But here's my question: with decades of chase cards, insert cards, redemption cards, refractors, and all the rest of the card-company manufactured rarities behind us, have those proven to be either a good investment or collectible in their own right? If it's still going on as strongly as it seems from the reports this year, I guess it must have some history of success. Or is it just new generations of quick-buck exploiters and suckers that come along every few years? Do all the ones that can't find a chair when the music stops just quit the hobby so there is no institutional memory of these things to prevent the next wave? Even though I'm a memorabilia guy and not a card guy, I've never had any trouble understanding the appeal of vintage cards. And likewise, the enormity of the whole "chase cards" phenomenon has me as mystified today as it did when I first witnessed it almost 30 years ago. Could someone (probably much younger!) please explain all this to me?

I know the Paul Pierce refractor I bought in 1998 is worth less than I paid or sold it for back in 98. He had a pretty good career.

I went to the 1985 Anaheim convention at the Disneyland Hotel. There was a "whole wrath of people and I don't know what all" as Andy Griffith would say. I'd go again if there is ever one down the street. I wasn't collecting cards in 1994, so I missed the Geo R Brown one.

[sreader3]

Originally Posted by topcat61

Honestly I'm okay with a market correction.I think the financial aspect of the hobby is getting in the way of collecting and pricing people out of the hobby. Certainly not what Buck Barker, Lionel Carter or Jefferson Burdick envisioned.

I think Barker, Carter and Burdick would be thrilled that their sleepy little hobby had become such a sensation and that they had laid the groundwork. Of course there are problems but much better to have a vibrant hobby with imperfections than one nobody cares a whit about.

[Ronnie73]

Originally Posted by sreader3

I think Barker, Carter and Burdick would be thrilled that their sleepy little hobby had become such a sensation and that they had laid the groundwork. Of course there are problems but much better to have a vibrant hobby with imperfections than one nobody cares a whit about.

Very true. It could be worse. It could be like postage stamp collecting. A dying and nearly dead hobby.