How do you think it all shakes out

[bounce]

You forgot to include Beckett in your list...

TPGs - Not entirely sure on this one, as we definitely don't have all the facts and it may take law enforcement to get to a lot of it. I do think PSA ends up buying some cards, most likely the trimmed stuff assuming people can find the pictures. The cleaning and stain removing I think probably slides by, and/or they just fight it the whole way. I don't imagine they just offer it up, but quite honestly that would be the best way to get it over with. Beckett appears to have a different set of issues, and that all still feels like early days to me. Since they don't have the guarantee, I have no idea what happens there. Regardless, I think all TPGs get much stricter in the short run unless it's clear there is no downside, in which case any guarantees will be done and graded cards will just become what autographs already are - just an opinion (and yes, I know some people already view that as what cards are now).

PWCC - I doubt they survive this, unless law enforcement really doesn't get involved. They've had so many missteps to this point. I really think if they want to maintain any relationship with the TPGs, they're going to have to eat most of the refunds, including the cleaning/stain removal that might not actually be altering. I just don't know how long they can weather that financially. And unless they're going to come out publicly and try to do that, there is no way it's just business as usual for them in Chicago. That will become a multi-time daily show, there's no way they'll be able to do business. Add to this the press on this is just starting, so if it's not somewhat resolved by the time we hit Chicago, you just KNOW there are going to be reporters from anywhere close coming through and trying to get their "scoop" on it - what a mess?!?! Unless it's true that "all press is good press".

Moser - Seems to me unless PWCC/PSA is going to insist on charging him with fraud, I'm not sure anything happens to him. If they were going to do that, wouldn't it have already happened? His reputation seems pretty well known already, but that's kinda the beauty of the internet from a privacy standpoint. I think if PWCC figures out they aren't going to be able to survive, then they will try to go after him and take their chances. Without that, I just don't know what would otherwise happen to him.

VCP/Net54 and other advertisers - I think it's a small blip for them, someone else will look to step in any space created and they'll get the advertising dollars back from someone else, or just carry on without it.

The rest - I think there are a lot of people nervous and undecided on what's next. I definitely believe that some people at the margins may just cease collecting and get out. I know for myself, I collect tons of stuff and had stopped collecting cards for more than 15 years before I started up again. I could always just go to something else.

Unless there is a pretty clear response before Chicago, I think the National probably does not go well. Without some substantive resolution of some sort, all the non-message board people are going to get their first taste of this at the show. How do you think they react? For people who do already know, anything more than a couple hundred bucks gets extra scrutiny and if prices aren't lower to reflect the perception of added risk with graded cards, I just don't think they sell as well.