What is Carlos Beltran's rookie card?

[Peter_Spaeth]

What a mess LOL. He is in 1995 Topps Traded, but it isn't his picture, it's Juan Lebron. He's pictured on Lebron's card. He has a 1995 SP Prospects but it's a minor league card. He next appears in some 1997 Bowman issues. So?

[swarmee]

1995 TOPPS TRADED CARLOS BELTRAN 18T according to the PSA Future HOF set registry. I tend to agree. He's the one labeled on the card, even if the picture isn't him.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by swarmee

1995 TOPPS TRADED CARLOS BELTRAN 18T according to the PSA Future HOF set registry. I tend to agree. He's the one labeled on the card, even if the picture isn't him.

I guess that's right but it seems stupid to buy a card with someone else pictured.

[AGuinness]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I guess that's right but it seems stupid to buy a card with someone else pictured.

I’m sure Johnny Ray is nodding in agreement somewhere...


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[Yastrzemski Sports]

You can always get both the Beltran and the Lebron cards and keep them as a pair. But I agree that the one with his name is his rookie.

As far as the future HOF registry, I don’t think his career numbers are as good as Harold Baines. And we all know what people think of his induction.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Yastrzemski Sports

You can always get both the Beltran and the Lebron cards and keep them as a pair. But I agree that the one with his name is his rookie.

As far as the future HOF registry, I don’t think his career numbers are as good as Harold Baines. And we all know what people think of his induction.

Sabrmetrics would violently disagree.

Beltran
JAWS
Center Field (9th):
69.6 career WAR / 44.4 7yr-peak WAR / 57.0 JAWS

Baines
JAWS
Right Field (74th):
38.7 career WAR / 21.4 7yr-peak WAR / 30.1 JAWS

[KingFisk]

The 1995 traded is considered his primary rookie, even with someone else pictured. It was dirt cheap about three years ago when I got mine. Once it went into pre HOF registry, I imagine it picked up.

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[Yastrzemski Sports]

As a shop owner, I have considered it misleading (at best) to label someone as a future HOF. I don’t think there is any place for that in the hobby. Some of the people on the list have very little chance of getting in and haven’t gotten much support. I feel bad for anyone buying a Miguel Tejada, Juan Gonzalez, Todd Helton, Gary Sheffield or even Gil Hodges Rookie with the thought he is going to be in the hall some day because PSA said so.

[HRBAKER]

How can someone's RC be a card with someone elses pic on it? Just bc Topps made an error and PSA anoited it so with its magic registry wand?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by HRBAKER

How can someone's RC be a card with someone elses pic on it? Just bc Topps made an error and PSA anoited it so with its magic registry wand?

I think the market would have made that choice irrespective of PSA. I want no part of that card, but I think the name controls the picture.

[KingFisk]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I think the market would have made that choice irrespective of PSA. I want no part of that card, but I think the name controls the picture.

It's the card I bought years ago, as it is the flagship rookie, despite the huge error. It never bugged me all that much, because it's just Carlos Beltran, not an all time great.

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[Peter_Spaeth]

I'll probably buy a 97 Bowman just to own a Beltran on my latest kick of expanding into the next tier beyond the HOF, but if I had to pick one of the 95s I'd take the one with his actual picture.

[KingFisk]

Who else are you buying? I did this a few years ago, ticking all of the guys in the Hall of Stats and guys destined for it. Grabbed Lofton, Edmonds, Abreu, etc. Fun to collect for sure.

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[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by KingFisk

Who else are you buying? I did this a few years ago, ticking all of the guys in the Hall of Stats and guys destined for it. Grabbed Lofton, Edmonds, Abreu, etc. Fun to collect for sure.

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In that spirit I've bought, let's see, Vizquel, Moyer, Sheffield, Walker, Belle, Mattingly, Gooden, Canseco, Schilling, off the top of my head. Nomar. Dwight Evans. Tiant. Munson.

[KingFisk]

Nice! I don't have a Moyer yet but would like one. Actually it's because of this second and third tier rookie hunt, I bought Harold Baines in PSA 9 for ten bucks....

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[Peter_Spaeth]

More non HOFers (leaving roids out of it) I have -- Maris. Dave Parker. Strawberry. Oliva. Dick Allen. Kaat. Tommy John. May add a Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich.

[KingFisk]

Spend enough time on here and you'll end up hunting for Sal Bando, Ted Simmons, Reggie Smith...

http://www.hallofstats.com/

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[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by KingFisk

Spend enough time on here and you'll end up hunting for Sal Bando, Ted Simmons, Reggie Smith...

http://www.hallofstats.com/

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Yeah that site as I recall rates Lou Whitaker and Scott Rolen in their top 100, dunno about that.

[KingFisk]

Rick Reuschel and Kevin Appier never passed this sniff test for me.

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[Yastrzemski Sports]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Yeah that site as I recall rates Lou Whitaker and Scott Rolen in their top 100, dunno about that.

If you like WAR as a stat Lou is at 75.1 and Rolen is at 70.2.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Yastrzemski Sports

If you like WAR as a stat Lou is at 75.1 and Rolen is at 70.2.

Damn, I may have to reconsider then. I guess there's something to consistency?

[KingFisk]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Damn, I may have to reconsider then. I guess there's something to consistency?

And terrific defenders at premium positions. I am curious how much of their WAR relates to defense.

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[HRBAKER]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I think the market would have made that choice irrespective of PSA. I want no part of that card, but I think the name controls the picture.

So we are really collecting words in this instance.

[Yastrzemski Sports]

There’s also this former mvps rookie.
E016AC75-85CB-4B20-BE8C-F7D737CCA09A.jpg

[bigfanNY]

First I am a Beltran fan. His numbers in the post season are among the best ever. And I have always considered the pair of 1985 traded cards his rookie card. Whenever I bought sold or traded any I did it as a pair.

[HRBAKER]

Originally Posted by Yastrzemski Sports

There’s also this former mvps rookie.
Attachment 353471

True but if I am not mistaken there is a correct version as well. And they at least have his name half right on the error. The Beltran card thing makes no sense to me.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by bigfanNY

First I am a Beltran fan. His numbers in the post season are among the best ever. And I have always considered the pair of 1985 traded cards his rookie card. Whenever I bought sold or traded any I did it as a pair.

Kinda like the 65 Bancroft Tiddlers where the back is on a different card. Sort of. like it anyway in that you need two to have the whole card.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by HRBAKER

True but if I am not mistaken there is a correct version as well. And they at least have his name half right on the error. The Beltran card thing makes no sense to me.

I'm with you. The Lebron card isn't much better, who wants another guy's name and bio with the pic? 1997 Bowman time.

[Rich Klein]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Yeah that site as I recall rates Lou Whitaker and Scott Rolen in their top 100, dunno about that.

Both Whitaker and Rolen have been underrated during their careers. Rolen is actually considered a good HOF candidate and will probably get in as a Veteran's committee player and frankly Whitaker should have gotten a chance to run out the ballot. He is certainly as good if not better as a HOFer than most of the Frankie Frisch clique which all got in during the 1920's (Bancroft, Youngs, Lindstrom, etc.)

Regards
Rich

[Yastrzemski Sports]

Originally Posted by Rich Klein

Both Whitaker and Rolen have been underrated during their careers. Rolen is actually considered a good HOF candidate and will probably get in as a Veteran's committee player and frankly Whitaker should have gotten a chance to run out the ballot. He is certainly as good if not better as a HOFer than most of the Frankie Frisch clique which all got in during the 1920's (Bancroft, Youngs, Lindstrom, etc.)

Regards
Rich

I think Whitaker should have gotten in before (or at least the same time) as Trammell.

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by KingFisk

Spend enough time on here and you'll end up hunting for Sal Bando, Ted Simmons, Reggie Smith...

http://www.hallofstats.com/

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I agree those names are unlikely to get elected. But I also think that we could easily list 20+ (or more) Hall of Famers who are less deserving.

Full disclosure: My brother built and runs that site.

[KingFisk]

Originally Posted by Mike D.

I agree those names are unlikely to get elected. But I also think that we could easily list 20+ (or more) Hall of Famers who are less deserving.



Full disclosure: My brother built and runs that site.

Oh awesome! I love that site. Your brother does great work.

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[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by KingFisk

Oh awesome! I love that site. Your brother does great work.

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Thank you. He got the brains in the family, and I all I got were these darn good looks

On the bright side, I can say I'm only the SECOND biggest baseball geek in my family!

[Peter_Spaeth]

Harold Baines fares extremely poorly on Hall of Stats.

[Yastrzemski Sports]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Harold Baines fares extremely poorly on Hall of Stats.

Baines: 2866 hits, 384 hr, 1299 r, 1628 rbi, 289/356/465 121 ops+
Beltran: 2725 hits, 435 hr, 1582 r, 1587 rbi, 279/350/485 119 ops+

Where does that leave Beltran?

[Copa7]

This was also the case with soccer Hall of Famer John Harkes (Sheffield Wednesday, DC United),

His picture is on the card, but it has Hall of Fame Tab Ramos (Sporting Gijon, MetroStars) name.

They come from the same town and it's both their rookie card!

If it had a slab flip, I'd insist they include both names.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Yastrzemski Sports

Baines: 2866 hits, 384 hr, 1299 r, 1628 rbi, 289/356/465 121 ops+
Beltran: 2725 hits, 435 hr, 1582 r, 1587 rbi, 279/350/485 119 ops+

Where does that leave Beltran?

Beltran 134 points
Rankings by Hall Rating
108th All Time (Top 0.6%)
8th among Center Fielders

Baines 57 points
Rankings by Hall Rating
751st All Time (Top 3.9%)
221st among Hall of Famers
6th among Designated Hitters

[Mike D.]

Baines has 38.7 career WAR in a career that spanned 22 seasons.

Beltran had 69.6 career WAR in a career that spanned 20 seasons.

Their raw offensive #'s are close-ish as someone noted, but:

- Beltran was a 3x GG winning CF. Baines was a DH/mediocre OF.

- Beltran stole 300+ bases with less than 50 CS. Baines stole 34 career bases with a 50% success rate.

- 50 more HR is nothing to sneeze at, either.

Baines is the worst HOF selection in recent memory. Beltran isn't a slam-dunk, no doubt HOFer, but I think he's deserving.

[Yastrzemski Sports]

Originally Posted by Mike D.

Baines has 38.7 career WAR in a career that spanned 22 seasons.

Beltran had 69.6 career WAR in a career that spanned 20 seasons.

Their raw offensive #'s are close-ish as someone noted, but:

- Beltran was a 3x GG winning CF. Baines was a DH/mediocre OF.

- Beltran stole 300+ bases with less than 50 CS. Baines stole 34 career bases with a 50% success rate.

- 50 more HR is nothing to sneeze at, either.

Baines is the worst HOF selection in recent memory. Beltran isn't a slam-dunk, no doubt HOFer, but I think he's deserving.

Offensively, they are almost identical as shown in their ops+ with Baines having a slight edge. I found it an interesting comparison when he was described as having “ extremely poor” stats for HOF and Beltran seems like a lock. I do give credit to Beltran for his defense. But I don’t think 3 gg ever put a player over the top for induction.

Baines had 1 top 10 finish in the MVP voting. Beltran had 2. So neither one was dominating their leagues in the era they played. I don’t think you can make an argument for or against one and not the other. You can show me WAR and black ink to “prove” that one was superior to the other but they were very similar players - offensively.

Baines has become the poster boy for bad HOF inductees. My argument is only that he’s a pretty good pick, that he had a very nice career and is getting a bad rap. Put him in and Beltran too.

[KingFisk]

Originally Posted by Yastrzemski Sports

Offensively, they are almost identical as shown in their ops+ with Baines having a slight edge. I found it an interesting comparison when he was described as having “ extremely poor” stats for HOF and Beltran seems like a lock. I do give credit to Beltran for his defense. But I don’t think 3 gg ever put a player over the top for induction.

Baines had 1 top 10 finish in the MVP voting. Beltran had 2. So neither one was dominating their leagues in the era they played. I don’t think you can make an argument for or against one and not the other. You can show me WAR and black ink to “prove” that one was superior to the other but they were very similar players - offensively.

Baines has become the poster boy for bad HOF inductees. My argument is only that he’s a pretty good pick, that he had a very nice career and is getting a bad rap. Put him in and Beltran too.

Dwight Evans should be in before either of them.

20yrs
bWAR - 67.1
2446 Hits
385 HR
.272/.370/.470
127 OPS+
2 Top 5 MVP finishes
ALso finished 7, 9 and 11 in MVP voting in other years
9 GG (interestingly, BR gives his a career negative defensive WAR - this surprised me. Just looking at his D WAR, he was a mediocre to terrible defender after he turned 30)

[Yastrzemski Sports]

Originally Posted by KingFisk

Dwight Evans should be in before either of them.

20yrs
bWAR - 67.1
2446 Hits
385 HR
.272/.370/.470
127 OPS+
2 Top 5 MVP finishes
ALso finished 7, 9 and 11 in MVP voting in other years
9 GG (interestingly, BR gives his a career negative defensive WAR - this surprised me. Just looking at his D WAR, he was a mediocre to terrible defender after he turned 30)

Now we’re talking. Good call.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by KingFisk

Dwight Evans should be in before either of them.

20yrs
bWAR - 67.1
2446 Hits
385 HR
.272/.370/.470
127 OPS+
2 Top 5 MVP finishes
ALso finished 7, 9 and 11 in MVP voting in other years
9 GG (interestingly, BR gives his a career negative defensive WAR - this surprised me. Just looking at his D WAR, he was a mediocre to terrible defender after he turned 30)

Right in Fenway is pretty tough, not as bad as left, but not easy either.

After a few years, people stopped running on him, something that doesn't show in any stats I know of. So that might have something to do with a defensive dropoff. Not many chances for outfield assists if nobody tries to take an extra base.

[KingFisk]

Originally Posted by steve B

Right in Fenway is pretty tough, not as bad as left, but not easy either.



After a few years, people stopped running on him, something that doesn't show in any stats I know of. So that might have something to do with a defensive dropoff. Not many chances for outfield assists if nobody tries to take an extra base.

There has to be some context to all of those negatives because I always believed he was a tremendous right fielder, and I think guys like Bill James have typically agreed with this characterization.

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[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by Yastrzemski Sports

Offensively, they are almost identical as shown in their ops+ with Baines having a slight edge. I found it an interesting comparison when he was described as having “ extremely poor” stats for HOF and Beltran seems like a lock. I do give credit to Beltran for his defense. But I don’t think 3 gg ever put a player over the top for induction.

Baines had 1 top 10 finish in the MVP voting. Beltran had 2. So neither one was dominating their leagues in the era they played. I don’t think you can make an argument for or against one and not the other. You can show me WAR and black ink to “prove” that one was superior to the other but they were very similar players - offensively.

Baines has become the poster boy for bad HOF inductees. My argument is only that he’s a pretty good pick, that he had a very nice career and is getting a bad rap. Put him in and Beltran too.

Agree that offensively similar, but defensively, it's not "3 gold gloves" that is the advantage, it's "20 years of good to great defense, compared to zero or negative defensive value for Baines".

And 300 steals is nothing to sniff at, either.

I look at it this way, if you're building a tower for each player based on their HOF qualifications, you give them both a similar sized "hitting" block.

The difference is that then Baines is done. All he did was hit. If you give Beltran a block for defense and a block for baserunning, his tower is substantially taller than Baines, even if the two additional blocks aren't as big.

In terms of WAR, I'd guess Baines and Beltran's offensive WAR (minus baserunning) is probably similar enough. Baines would have somewhat negative baserunning and defense. Meanwhile, Beltran would have positive baserunning and defense.

Now, whether either tower reaches HOF levels or not is another debate....but it's hard to argue that Beltran's isn't the better case.

[packs]

I really don't see it even being close between them. Beltran's 2006 season was better than any two of Baines'. And I mean that literally. Beltran put up an 8.2 WAR that year. The highest Baines ever put out was 4.3.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by steve B

Right in Fenway is pretty tough, not as bad as left, but not easy either.

After a few years, people stopped running on him, something that doesn't show in any stats I know of. So that might have something to do with a defensive dropoff. Not many chances for outfield assists if nobody tries to take an extra base.

Yeah, like some cornerbacks don't have much in the way of stats because teams will throw away from them most of the time.