Collecting, Investing- Hypothetical ?

[packs]

I'd love to be able to focus on collecting fossils and other fossil-related things like amber and meteorites. I always look at the Heritage auctions and think about how nice it would be to collect that stuff, but am bogged down with my card addiction.

[drcy]

Interesting concept, but I'd have to study the market. I know what I'd like to collect, but as far as value and investment I have no idea.

[steve B]

I've collected stuff pretty much my whole life, and I will say that hitting it big with any collectible as an investment is pretty risky. Overall, unless you get really lucky, they won't keep pace with a simple index fund. Like traditional investing, there's a chance to really make a lot. But just like traditional investing, you have to be early to things, and very lucky.

Just as you could have bought Amazon at some crazy low price, you also could have bought pets.com or any of the host of failed .com companies that were around at the time.

Even among sports collectibles, that happens. when I started collecting, T206 Hofers like Young were $10 with Cobb maybe a bit more, and some a bit less. And not much difference between VG and ex. Did I buy them? Nope, the values were stable from year to year, but seemed to jump every few years. I should have caught on when they got to around 100-150, but nope.


So what you need to find is something that isn't currently collected by large numbers of people, but which has a lot of mass appeal. Then figure out which items are the best, and buy them as much as possible.


Even then, it's no guarantee.
Some stuff I've been a bit involved in like that

Early home computers - Were becoming huge just before 2000, busted along with the .coms, and haven't really come back. The "important" ones like Altair have held value, as have the popular ones like C64, but the rest aren't much more than curiosities. At the $2-10 they used to run at yard sales they're still not bad they just take up a lot of space.


NASCAR diecast - Going well, had a price guide, then just nothing. Overproduction pretty much did in the whole thing. I'm sure some are still "good" but the ones I found that cataloged $20-50? Nope. Just another sort of cool thing in a box.

The same for Hot wheels that aren't actually old. Even the ones the guides said were "rare" My daughter opened one she found to play with, and I couldn't really get mad. Especially after looking it up on Ebay, to find it was selling for about what I paid plus shipping.


What would I look for now?

I like a lot of the space related stuff. While the moon landing will be hot till maybe the end of the year, it will fade for another 10-25 years.

I'd go after stuff related to the current private space companies, especially anything identifiable with good provenance that's been flown. Actually flown space stuff of any sort is good, but there may be a small window of time where any that comes up will be ignored.

[joshuanip]

How about prime real estate investment trusts in non taxable jurisdictions.

[Snapolit1]

Great stuff. I appreciate the "collect what no one else is collecting" point. But that was easier to do decades ago. I feel like everyone collects everything now.

It's like how do you make money in real estate. One proven strategy is buy into a lousy neighborhood before it turns nice. But everytime I see a lousy neighborhood I see nothing but a lousy neighborhood. You used to be able to go on ebay and buy rundown houses in Detroit for $5. No idea if that is true anymore.

Originally Posted by steve B

I've collected stuff pretty much my whole life, and I will say that hitting it big with any collectible as an investment is pretty risky. Overall, unless you get really lucky, they won't keep pace with a simple index fund. Like traditional investing, there's a chance to really make a lot. But just like traditional investing, you have to be early to things, and very lucky.

Just as you could have bought Amazon at some crazy low price, you also could have bought pets.com or any of the host of failed .com companies that were around at the time.

Even among sports collectibles, that happens. when I started collecting, T206 Hofers like Young were $10 with Cobb maybe a bit more, and some a bit less. And not much difference between VG and ex. Did I buy them? Nope, the values were stable from year to year, but seemed to jump every few years. I should have caught on when they got to around 100-150, but nope.


So what you need to find is something that isn't currently collected by large numbers of people, but which has a lot of mass appeal. Then figure out which items are the best, and buy them as much as possible.


Even then, it's no guarantee.
Some stuff I've been a bit involved in like that

Early home computers - Were becoming huge just before 2000, busted along with the .coms, and haven't really come back. The "important" ones like Altair have held value, as have the popular ones like C64, but the rest aren't much more than curiosities. At the $2-10 they used to run at yard sales they're still not bad they just take up a lot of space.


NASCAR diecast - Going well, had a price guide, then just nothing. Overproduction pretty much did in the whole thing. I'm sure some are still "good" but the ones I found that cataloged $20-50? Nope. Just another sort of cool thing in a box.

The same for Hot wheels that aren't actually old. Even the ones the guides said were "rare" My daughter opened one she found to play with, and I couldn't really get mad. Especially after looking it up on Ebay, to find it was selling for about what I paid plus shipping.


What would I look for now?

I like a lot of the space related stuff. While the moon landing will be hot till maybe the end of the year, it will fade for another 10-25 years.

I'd go after stuff related to the current private space companies, especially anything identifiable with good provenance that's been flown. Actually flown space stuff of any sort is good, but there may be a small window of time where any that comes up will be ignored.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Great stuff. I appreciate the "collect what no one else is collecting" point. But that was easier to do decades ago. I feel like everyone collects everything now.

It's like how do you make money in real estate. One proven strategy is buy into a lousy neighborhood before it turns nice. But everytime I see a lousy neighborhood I see nothing but a lousy neighborhood. You used to be able to go on ebay and buy rundown houses in Detroit for $5. No idea if that is true anymore.

That's the really difficult part. If I was any good at it, my collection would be a lot nicer.


The list of stuff that's already had its day and just isn't "big" anymore is huge.

Telephone/telegraph Insulators
Old bottles
Old ads for cars etc.
Beer cans
Hummel type things
Fiesta ware
Jadeite
Rocks and minerals
Old light bulbs
Old radios
Breyer horses

All stuff I've been into a little or not such a little. Maybe a lot less on the Hummel type stuff, but Mom liked it, so I learned about the series she liked. My sister was/is into the Breyer horses.


None of that stuff was really big, but most of it had published price guides.


Even some really fringe stuff has had its surges, I'm in a facebook group for people that collect vises, clamps and anvils... Yes, some people collect anvils. They often lament how only a couple years ago nice usable ones were maybe $1 a pound, but now that the show "forged in Fire" is popular, the millennials are bidding them up at farm auctions, and $3-4 is the going rate. (I watch the show with my 8 year old daughter, it's pretty good.)
I don't collect, but it's a goodplace to learn about them. Eventually I want one, and maybe if I can scrape together the money one of the decorated European ones from the 15-1700s

Someone could have had a nice little return if they'd bought a bunch maybe 4-5 years ago. But that opportunity has passed.