recent auto counterfeits - the effects on auto collecting??

[griffon512]

Originally Posted by Vintageclout

High end collectors have spent a lot more on pre-war high grade cards residing in 8, 9 and 10 holders, as well as major game used uniforms/equipment. Do the 3rd party graders have these types of collectibles at a 100% certainty level? The simple answer is no. Vast collecting niches in this hobby require sone “leap of faith” based on the TPG’s assessments, not just autographs. If it makes the collector uncomfortable, stay away. If it doesn’t, God Bless and go for it. Most collectors with high-end purse strings continue to prove they will test that “leap of faith” collecting angle, and don’t expect that to change in the near future.

Vintageclout makes a great point regarding the "leap of faith" among virtually all collectors, not just vintage cards/memorabilia. It starts with the fact that most collectibles have an intrinsic value of close to $0. The value we attach to these collectibles is a matter of psychology and people have proved throughout history that they want to attach sometimes immense amounts of value to items that don't inherently have any. Tulip bulbs anyone? To someone unfamiliar with our culture, investments in old pieces of cardboard with images on them -- many of which are altered -- would seem as ludicrous as buying coins, stamps, antiques...or tulip bulbs.

How about paper currency? It's only worth as much as collective faith in the monetary system. Speaking of faith, how did the Church become the most powerful force in the modern world for hundreds of years? Most people are prone to believe -- that underpins everything and always will.

How many perceived hobby crises do we have to go through before people come to the conclusion that the next crisis is not going to destroy a large segment of the hobby? The answer is many more. Why? There is so much money involved that there will continue to be "bad actors," and those prone to catastrophisizing and generalizing will mistake discoveries of the deeds of those bad actors as a doomsday scenario.

It will take a sustained downturn in risky assets where high-end spenders have most of their exposure (e.g., real estate, stocks) for psychology to be shaken, not a net54 thread, despite how good the work on that thread was. Mark Twain could have been talking about vintage card autographs when he wrote "the rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated." I don't think he's turning over in his grave about our latest crisis.

[mrvster]

my leap of faith won't be with my wallet

too easy to fake an auto....give a kid a pen and a few hours to practice and James Spence will be fooled

[Vintageclout]

Originally Posted by mrvster

my leap of faith won't be with my wallet

too easy to fake an auto....give a kid a pen and a few hours to practice and James Spence will be fooled

Card doctoring just as easy....if not more. To each his own.

[mrvster]

I'm sure can be done.....but I highly doubt as easy as picking up a pen or sharpie and a few hours practice....

try this with a twelve year old......I'm sure 5 out of 10 could prob fake an auto and get it through jsa....within a few hours....

then give the kid a t206 and have him create big bordered ghost image scrap or pull a magie error off with out detection of altering or trim up a nice 8....

aint gonna happen, only with the most advanced crooks maybe, just maybe....

simple logic.....auto are just to easy to fake...by just about anyone....sucks but true!!!


mantle and babe, I hate to say, prob 30 % or more are prob fakes(just an arbitrary number)....

to each his own definitely.....but I cant see dumping 30k or more on a cobb auto that may have a 50/50 shot at actually being legit...

make sense????

too easy to do....for so many people, cost nothing(pen ink) an a 12 year old could do it...

scary shit

[mrvster]

the t206 counterfeiter is so stupid, he/she purchased the cards from ebay!

DUH!

eventually, someone would catch on......person doesn't seem too smart....just another douchebag a - hole with a pen

that was their high tech gear

[griffon512]

Originally Posted by mrvster

I'm sure can be done.....but I highly doubt as easy as picking up a pen or sharpie and a few hours practice....

try this with a twelve year old......I'm sure 5 out of 10 could prob fake an auto and get it through jsa....within a few hours....

then give the kid a t206 and have him create big bordered ghost image scrap or pull a magie error off with out detection of altering or trim up a nice 8....

aint gonna happen, only with the most advanced crooks maybe, just maybe....

simple logic.....auto are just to easy to fake...by just about anyone....sucks but true!!!


mantle and babe, I hate to say, prob 30 % or more are prob fakes(just an arbitrary number)....

to each his own definitely.....but I cant see dumping 30k or more on a cobb auto that may have a 50/50 shot at actually being legit...

make sense????

too easy to do....for so many people, cost nothing(pen ink) an a 12 year old could do it...

scary shit

i completely get why you would be reluctant to buy high-end autos so don't open up your wallet for it...but we all should recognize that the market is made outside of us individually or as a board community. the person who paid ~$76,000 for a gehrig signed 1928 exhibit (sold previously for ~$53,000 a little over a year ago) is not concerned about reselling it to you or me! if they have a money concern, it's probably about how their stock market investments are going to do? their concern about the signed gehrig exhibit is probably relegated to who they can invite over to show it off to or when they will get bored of it?

[mrvster]

completely agree....if you have cash to literally to burn its not much of a concern....a rough 70 % shot at it being legit is good enough for them

I could see idiots trying to fake Cobbs....a few minutes and BAM! a 30 k card....

lets do a joe jax while they are at it! he probably signed almost nothing cause he couldn't write....

but maybe ray liotta can do it!

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by mrvster

I'm sure can be done.....but I highly doubt as easy as picking up a pen or sharpie and a few hours practice....

try this with a twelve year old......I'm sure 5 out of 10 could prob fake an auto and get it through jsa....within a few hours....

then give the kid a t206 and have him create big bordered ghost image scrap or pull a magie error off with out detection of altering or trim up a nice 8....

aint gonna happen, only with the most advanced crooks maybe, just maybe....

simple logic.....auto are just to easy to fake...by just about anyone....sucks but true!!!


mantle and babe, I hate to say, prob 30 % or more are prob fakes(just an arbitrary number)....

to each his own definitely.....but I cant see dumping 30k or more on a cobb auto that may have a 50/50 shot at actually being legit...

make sense????

too easy to do....for so many people, cost nothing(pen ink) an a 12 year old could do it...

scary shit

I respectfully highly disagree. Don't get me wrong I 100% agree that almost anyone with practice can forge an autograph. The same thing goes with doctoring up a card.

As someone who was a mason for many years it is something that 99.99% of people can't just do without a lot of practice. Those that try have some ugly looking finished product. I can guarantee the average brick layer is not very intelligent even though they are the highest paid trade. Yet they can give you a beautiful house or fireplace because they know how.

Same with card doctoring it is not hard once you know how.

[mrvster]

i agree also, a card could be doctored also, but what to doctor???

a corner?? a wrinkle?? soak a card???

I would imagine it would be hard to create national on joe doyle......

maybe trying to doctor magie, but that is difficult im sure....

most of my scrap left are impossible to forge, especially the fat bordered grossly big bordered , weird cuts, the yellow browns ect...the whole card would have to be created and the ones I have are legit...

so I'm not too sure how , at least, t206 can be altered more??? maybe trimmed cards....but I'm sure its not even close to the scale of forged autos...

bats, balls, index cards, 8 X 10's, anything signed, to me, is questionable unless there is provenance....

obviously, card doctoring can be done, and I am sure it is, but it is not , I'm sure, as prevelant in comparison to autos....

autos are just too easy to forge....

take a magee, try to "doctor" the e into an i and try to get it into a tpa....I'm sure they would detect it....there probably not too many people on the planet could pull it off, and if they did/could, it would be beyond skill...



so I'm not sure what else could be doctored???? even the fake rare backs were caught....?????

the profit margin isn't there on trying to fake/forge other cards....how many fake magies do you think a forger is going to get through??? 1 maybe if the stars aligned and the graders were sleeping...

I'm just saying, to go to that extent to try to forge big cards or try to replicate t206 as scrap is highly unlikely....almost slim to none...

show some examples???

not many to be found....


on the other hand, the surface , I'm sure, is just scraped!! this is the tip of the iceberg I'm sure....


now tpg can't even be trusted....I can see making a mistake on 1 or 2 but dozens of these????????????

if the t206 forger didn't buy the cards on ebay, no one would have ever figured it out!

NOW THAT IS SCARY!!!!!!

how many other cards were bought at shows, the forgers just signed the item in the bathroom, then submits to james spence???

I wonder how many cobbs or mantles were cooked up while the forger sat on the toilet at a card show??? dropping # 2's and laughing his/her ass off as they submit to jsa for a multi k payoff from a 20 dollar investment?

ugh.....when it comes to autos, it's beyond scary....just use logic ....it's common sense on this one....

this has happened over many years within the hobby with autos....


I believe , the future autos with concrete evidence (photos, testimonials of witnesses, provenance) will be highly prized....


so, lesson learned....if you are getting something autoed, take a picture and a picture of the piece....document it....

I have watched every episode of pawn stars too much

[murphy8276]

Will PSA honor the guarantee on the autograph cards? I would think buying PSA wouldn't be very affected due to the protection if so.

[ruth_rookie]

What is just as scary and frustrating for me as slabbed doctored cards and forged t206’s is having genuinely un-doctored cards get regected as trimmed, altered stock, etc. I have a ‘53 topps Mantle that would easily grade an 8 that came back EVID-TRIM by PSA. Haven’t tried SGC yet but will soon. The card was busted out of a pack by my dad, then handed down to me. It was his prized possession, and I know for a fact it hasn’t been altered. Happens to a whole bunch of collectors I’m sure. So we have altered cards that are slabbed in 8 and 9 holders selling for buttloads of cash, and I may only be able to slab mine in A. How f’d up is that.....

Sorry. Rant over!