recent auto counterfeits - the effects on auto collecting??

[griffon512]

Originally Posted by Vintageclout

High end collectors have spent a lot more on pre-war high grade cards residing in 8, 9 and 10 holders, as well as major game used uniforms/equipment. Do the 3rd party graders have these types of collectibles at a 100% certainty level? The simple answer is no. Vast collecting niches in this hobby require sone “leap of faith” based on the TPG’s assessments, not just autographs. If it makes the collector uncomfortable, stay away. If it doesn’t, God Bless and go for it. Most collectors with high-end purse strings continue to prove they will test that “leap of faith” collecting angle, and don’t expect that to change in the near future.

Vintageclout makes a great point regarding the "leap of faith" among virtually all collectors, not just vintage cards/memorabilia. It starts with the fact that most collectibles have an intrinsic value of close to $0. The value we attach to these collectibles is a matter of psychology and people have proved throughout history that they want to attach sometimes immense amounts of value to items that don't inherently have any. Tulip bulbs anyone? To someone unfamiliar with our culture, investments in old pieces of cardboard with images on them -- many of which are altered -- would seem as ludicrous as buying coins, stamps, antiques...or tulip bulbs.

How about paper currency? It's only worth as much as collective faith in the monetary system. Speaking of faith, how did the Church become the most powerful force in the modern world for hundreds of years? Most people are prone to believe -- that underpins everything and always will.

How many perceived hobby crises do we have to go through before people come to the conclusion that the next crisis is not going to destroy a large segment of the hobby? The answer is many more. Why? There is so much money involved that there will continue to be "bad actors," and those prone to catastrophisizing and generalizing will mistake discoveries of the deeds of those bad actors as a doomsday scenario.

It will take a sustained downturn in risky assets where high-end spenders have most of their exposure (e.g., real estate, stocks) for psychology to be shaken, not a net54 thread, despite how good the work on that thread was. Mark Twain could have been talking about vintage card autographs when he wrote "the rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated." I don't think he's turning over in his grave about our latest crisis.