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Old 12-19-2018, 09:39 PM
Bram99 Bram99 is offline
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Default A note on PSA populations and scarcity

Quote:
Originally Posted by rats60 View Post
I will

The idea that the Seaver RC PSA pop 2456 sells for less than the Ryan RC PSA pop 8531 is a joke.
This post may be obvious to many on this board, but it bears writing for those who haven't thought about what PSA populations really signal.

These arguments involving PSA populations sometimes miss a couple of important elements other than card scarcity - popularity and card value. In terms of under-appreciated things, this is something that is truly underappreciated about the PSA population numbers.

While one card may be a short print and the other one not, the relative PSA population of two cards (not total population of raw + graded) is a factor of not only the relative scarcity/supply of the card, but of other things.

The 1952 Topps #311 Mantle has about 1500 graded copies. It is a high number with lower supply than cards in the low series. The 1952 Topps #310 George Metkovich is part of the less-scarce, low number series. So there are likely more of them in the world today than the Mantle. But there are only 450 or so PSA graded copies of #310. This doesn't mean it is more scarce. It means people have submitted this card fewer times to PSA than the Mantle. Both the popularity of the player and the potential profit/gain on having a card graded drives the PSA population. So be careful in using PSA pop as a proxy for relative scarcity.


It is hard to argue from that Ryan was way more of a collectors' favorite than Seaver. Ryan had the flashier career with the strikeouts, no-hitters, being dominant into his mid-40's almost, the noogies to Ventura's head. Seaver just doesn't have those memorable events. So Ryan's RC was more desireable, which made it more valuable, which caused people to send it in for grading more frequently. While the Seaver may be more scarce in total raw + graded population, these other factors play into Ryan having a larger PSA population.

That said, my Dad was a pitcher and he watched baseball avidly. He thought that Seaver was the best of his generation.
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Old 12-20-2018, 05:21 AM
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rats60 rats60 is offline
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Those people who have been in the hobby for a long time know that the Seaver is much rarer than Ryan. If anything the Ryan RC is under represented on the PSA site due to it being so common that kids played with them and there are a lot of them in poor grades. PSA 1 shows 174. PSA 2 347. PSA 7 1488. There are a lot more low grade Ryan's than NM ones, but they aren't worth grading.

Seaver on the other hand was issued in low numbers being a 7th series card that had limited distribution in packs. A very large percentage of these cards entered the hobby through dealers selling to collectors. A much higher percentage are in higher grades than the Ryans.
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Old 12-20-2018, 05:54 AM
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Steve D Steve D is offline
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Another aspect to consider in the Ryan/Seaver argument, is the effect Jerry Koosman plays. He was a pretty decent and popular pitcher himself.

Ryan has Koosman riding shotgun for him, while Seaver has someone named Bill Denehy.


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