Money in the Hobby

[joshuanip]

Originally Posted by packs

Many people go to museums. In fact, I would bet it would be pretty difficult for you to find a single person who hasn't been to one. You can show almost anyone in the country a photo of the Mona Lisa and they'll know what it is. That could not be said for any baseball card. I also doubt anyone buys art just to spend money on something. It is true that people will invest in artwork, but at it's base level art has a utilitarian purpose that baseball cards never will.

I disagree with your opinion on the utility of cards. As stated earlier, the TPGs and online venues have increased the utility of the cards. For art, its a 1 of 1 market (sans the giglees, lithos, and other crap out there). For cards, there is more than one and a standardized grading system, so you have a baseline of what the market is. That baseline is accretive to the utility and thus value of the asset.

But hell, as others say, who cares, we are all dead eventually (and what else am I going to do in the meantime).

[packs]

Originally Posted by joshuanip

I disagree with your opinion on the utility of cards. As stated earlier, the TPGs and online venues have increased the utility of the cards. For art, its a 1 of 1 market (sans the giglees, lithos, and other crap out there). For cards, there is more than one and a standardized grading system, so you have a baseline of what the market is. That baseline is accretive to the utility and thus value of the asset.

But hell, as others say, who cares, we are all dead eventually (and what else am I going to do in the meantime).

By utilitarian I meant that artwork serves a purpose beyond being valuable. We all have homes, I assume we all have something on the wall too. And that doesn't take into account other forms of artwork, like furniture, lawn ornaments, comic books, comic strips, cartoons, posters, t-shirts, shoes, logos, etc.

[buymycards]

I'm still waiting for Beanie Baby prices to rebound.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by buymycards

I'm still waiting for Beanie Baby prices to rebound.

Was an article last year about the absolute worst things to have collected in the last 50 years. Had to send a copy to my parents as they touched most of the bases. Hummels. Yadro. Norman Rockwell plates. Check check check.

Beanie babies were there of course. But the biggest disaster was Thomas Kinkaid paintings. What a debacle that turned into. People were paying big bucks for those and the market just got saturated. Every shopping mall in America was selling them. Poor guy died before it all collapsed. Probably for the better.

[ronniehatesjazz]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Was an article last year about the absolute worst things to have collected in the last 50 years. Had to send a copy to my parents as they touched most of the bases. Hummels. Yadro. Norman Rockwell plates. Check check check.

Beanie babies were there of course. But the biggest disaster was Thomas Kinkaid paintings. What a debacle that turned into. People were paying big bucks for those and the market just got saturated. Every shopping mall in America was selling them. Poor guy died before it all collapsed. Probably for the better.

The king of kitsch! I was only a kid during the Kinkade craze and had no insights to what passed for good art (still probably don't) but I still remember thinking how cheesy the one my great aunt had in her living room looked.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by ronniehatesjazz

The king of kitsch! I was only a kid during the Kinkade craze and had no insights to what passed for good art (still probably don't) but I still remember thinking how cheesy the one my great aunt had in her living room looked.

Has a client once with 7 or 8 of them throughout her home. With big lights over them. She and her husband walked me through the house like it was the Louve.

Of course the guy had more talent in on nail then I will ever ever have so not trying to bad mouth him at all.

[seanofjapan]

I count myself among those predicting things will go down.

In the short term (next year or two) the tax cuts and good employment situation will probably lead to a bump in prices, but in the long term its hard to find any indicators which don't look negative.

The baby boomer's reaching their predicted life expectancy is a big one. All the comments I've read here point to that as a demand problem (these people will stop buying cards when they die) but the bigger problem is on the supply side.

Its safe to say that the majority of vintage cards out there are in the hands of baby boomers. When that generation passes away, most of those cards are going to become part of their estates. Probably some heirs will decide to keep them but I would guess that the majority wouldn't be interested in or financially able to sit on valuable cards.

So you're probably going to see a flood of estate sales full of baseball card collections.

This hasn't really happened to the baseball card hobby before because the boomers were the first generation to collect en masse. But if you look at other, older, hobbies like stamp collecting this has been an issue for a while and prices there reflect that (the relationship between catalog prices and actual prices for stamps is so fictitious it makes Beckett or PSA's prices look like they were made with laser like precision).

Some people have said that younger people do collect, which is true, but the problem is that in order for prices to be maintained over the long term you need each subsequent generation of collectors to be at least the same size as, or larger than, the one that precedes it. Every indication we have is that the opposite is going on. Yeah, I'm sure there are plenty of millenials out there who collect baseball cards, but there just aren't as many as there are Generation Xers or Boomers.

So when all those Boomer collections show up in estate sales, there just aren't going to be enough buyers around to keep prices what they are now.

Another thing worth noting is that the baseball card market is one in which marginal swings in demand can have disproportionate effects on price. Like a 5% increase in the number of collectors chasing a given card won't lead to a 5% increase in price but more like a 50% or even 500% increase because just adding one or two determined bidders to an auction often causes them (the auctions, not the bidders) to explode.

That also works the other way though. Just take 5% of the demand away from a given card ( or set or whatever) and it won't just cause the price to go down 5%, it will cause it to collapse. So these generational changes pose a risk of really causing a disproportionate effect on prices.

You also have to kind of draw a line between the "rich people" part of the hobby and the "everyone else" part. The latter part is much more vulnerable to this than the former. So long as you've got a few millionaires/billionaires chasing vanity projects then the top high end market probably won't be affected much by these generational shifts. But the mid to lower end stuff is really likely to tank. A PSA 9 1952 Topps Mantle will probably keep its value (bar some cataclysmic event that shatters civilization as we know it) but a PSA 4 1967 Topps Mantle is probably going to be a very cheap item in the near future.

You also have a ton of cultural and other shifts that don't look good. Baseball isn't as popular as it once was, people spend more of their time in the digital world and have less time and interest in collecting physical objects, cards in particular have lost their function as a source of information sharing, etc etc.

[Huck]

Originally Posted by buymycards

I'm still waiting for Beanie Baby prices to rebound.

That comment made me laugh out loud.

Everything is cyclical and don't forget it is just cardboard. Would the bottom falling out of the card market even make the front page of the local paper or a leading story on a 24 hour news channel? I think not. Card collecting is a niche thing. Yes, there are deep pocket types who want to own the best card, nicest car, biggest house etc. It remains to be seen if there are enough newbies to the hobby to sustain current price levels. Fact is, like Bill Murray said in "Meatballs" - "It just doesn't matter. I just doesn't matter."

I am enjoying the discourse. One thing missing from the discussion (or I missed it) is having enjoyed playing the game. Soccer, lacrosse, cup stacking, hockey (ice time was scarce in Hawaii) were not options during my childhood. But baseball was a constant. Around 9-10 years of age trading cards at school was popular.

I want to believe that the majority of collector's out there enjoyed playing the game or have some emotional tie (went to games with a family member etc.) to the game. How many of you out there never played the game, woke up one day and said "I am going to start collecting baseball cards"? Quite a few folks on the board have lamented the fact that their offspring have zero interest in maintaining the collection. My two boys enjoy attending card shows, but it isn't a given that they will continue the collection I have amassed.

I have never looked at the hobby as an investment. I just enjoy collecting. I have the collecting bug.

(The Graduate - Updated)

Mr. McGuire: I want to say one word to you. Just one word.

Benjamin: Yes, sir.

Mr. McGuire: Are you listening?

Benjamin: Yes, I am.

Mr. McGuire: Bitcoin.

Benjamin: Exactly how do you mean?

Mr. McGuire: There's a great future in bitcoin. Think about it. Will you think about it?

[barrysloate]

Charlie Chaplin cards may not have much value, but an original movie poster from one of his silents is worth a bundle. So he certainly is not forgotten.

And a few posters have cited the weakness in stamp and coin collecting, and as at one time a collector of both, they are at least partially correct. Those coins and stamps that are somewhat esoteric, that need to be studied, and are raw, are suffering. There is simply a smaller number of serious collectors these days. And the ones who still do collect them have a lot of gray hair. That collecting pool isn't getting any younger.

But as far as slabbed coins and stamps, ones of great rarity or top-notch condition, there is a ton of new money coming in. But these people aren't collectors in the same way. Many treat their purchases as portfolio assets. They don't study that much and probably don't have the time or inclination.

It's just a shift in what's popular and how people collect. There's an incredible amount of money among the top 1%, and they are only interested in world class pieces. A lower grade coin or stamp, regardless of its history, doesn't have much appeal. To them the most important thing is the number on the slab.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Charlie Chaplin cards may not have much value, but an original movie poster from one of his silents is worth a bundle. So he certainly is not forgotten.

And a few posters have cited the weakness in stamp and coin collecting, and as at one time a collector of both, they are at least partially correct. Those coins and stamps that are somewhat esoteric, that need to be studied, and are raw, are suffering. There is simply a smaller number of serious collectors these days. And the ones who still do collect them have a lot of gray hair. That collecting pool isn't getting any younger.

But as far as slabbed coins and stamps, ones of great rarity or top-notch condition, there is a ton of new money coming in. But these people aren't collectors in the same way. Many treat their purchases as portfolio assets. They don't study that much and probably don't have the time or inclination.

It's just a shift in what's popular and how people collect. There's an incredible amount of money among the top 1%, and they are only interested in world class pieces. A lower grade coin or stamp, regardless of its history, doesn't have much appeal. To them the most important thing is the number on the slab.

You’re just spewing blab
If you ain’t got the slab.
Doo wa Doo wa Doo wa

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

You’re just spewing blab
If you ain’t got the slab.
Doo wa Doo wa Doo wa

You're correct Frank, it's all about the slab. It's the single most important innovation to our hobby since its popularity grew in the 1970's.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by packs

By utilitarian I meant that artwork serves a purpose beyond being valuable. We all have homes, I assume we all have something on the wall too. And that doesn't take into account other forms of artwork, like furniture, lawn ornaments, comic books, comic strips, cartoons, posters, t-shirts, shoes, logos, etc.

I have baseball paintings, baseball pictures, baseball posters, uncut sheets of baseball cards, baseball autographs and other baseball display items. Most of what you listed, I would consider worthless. I would agree that baseball cards printed in larger numbers, most postwar, will probably see lower values in the future. Top names in higher grades will continue to increase in my opinion.

[packs]

Originally Posted by rats60

I have baseball paintings, baseball pictures, baseball posters, uncut sheets of baseball cards, baseball autographs and other baseball display items. Most of what you listed, I would consider worthless. I would agree that baseball cards printed in larger numbers, most postwar, will probably see lower values in the future. Top names in higher grades will continue to increase in my opinion.

Worthless in what way? What does that mean? How are shoes worthless? How is a house worthless? Do you not consider architecture to be art? Advertisements are worthless? Do you wear clothes? Do you have furniture? Do you watch television?
Go to the movies? Art affects your life every day.

[KMayUSA6060]

Seeing as though our economy has been stagnant at best for the past 2 decades, with the recession in the middle, and card prices have still increased, I'm going to say I'm bullish on the sustainability of the card market. I think as our economy grows (which is should) over the foreseeable future, these cards will just continue to increase. Maybe not your commons, but HoFers and rarities? Heck yeah. I'm 23 and know and handful of people my age that are collecting Pre-War. The hobby isn't going anywhere but up in my opinion, as long as the economy is solid.

Enjoy the present, hope the best for the future, and Make the Hobby Great Again.

[joshuanip]

Originally Posted by KMayUSA6060

Seeing as though our economy has been stagnant at best for the past 2 decades, with the recession in the middle, and card prices have still increased, I'm going to say I'm bullish on the sustainability of the card market. I think as our economy grows (which is should) over the foreseeable future, these cards will just continue to increase. Maybe not your commons, but HoFers and rarities? Heck yeah. I'm 23 and know and handful of people my age that are collecting Pre-War. The hobby isn't going anywhere but up in my opinion, as long as the economy is solid.

Enjoy the present, hope the best for the future, and Make the Hobby Great Again.

The economy has been improving, look at unemployment, stocks and interest rates for indications...

But Bingo on the youth collecting vintage. There are tons of facebook groups trading and collecting vintage. Albeit they are looking for beaters, when they get older and have more disposable income, they will be looking to upgrade their beaters...

[KMayUSA6060]

Originally Posted by joshuanip

The economy has been improving, look at unemployment, stocks and interest rates for indications...

But Bingo on the youth collecting vintage. There are tons of facebook groups trading and collecting vintage. Albeit they are looking for beaters, when they get older and have more disposable income, they will be looking to upgrade their beaters...

I'm sorry I didn't make my post more clear. The economy has absolutely been improving recently, but for the good part of two decades, it was in decline/stagnant, yet prices still increased on these cards.

I think my generation, as much as I try to distance myself from them, learned from their parents' errors when it came to card collecting, and are going for the timeless, classic cards that are no longer being produced and show true history.

[mechanicalman]

I understand the sentiment behind Adam's point on it being "pointless to predict the future," but it's hard for me to think it's pointless for not having some thought about the future stability of these assets. If I had no regard for future value, I'd feel like I'd be doing my family a great disservice by being reckless with my spending.

I, like others, am bullish, at least when it comes to high-eye-appeal HoFers from popular sets. The biggest spenders I've met in the hobby happen to cluster in age from late 30s to late 40s. These dudes have a deep passion for the sport of baseball and for collecting. It's not a phase for them. They will outlive boomers. It's a small sample size, but I think it's indicative of a bigger trend of dudes coming into money and trying to reconnect with meaningful sh*t from the past. Bottom line, I think we'll be fine for at least another 40 years; at least that's what I tell myself and my wife.

[rainier2004]

I've been leery on the hobby for years mainly due to the potential fraud. But...the hobby has survived.

As long as the economy doesn't nose dive like it did in 1929, and that wont be happening anytime soon having unemployment hit 40%, the sky is the limit.

And even think there is more upside. What if a TPG could actually capture the strengths of the two that exist now? A company that could grade and turn around cards like SGC and another with the marketing/registry of PSA and have it lead the way on fraud protection? It would blow even more doors off the barrier to entry in the hobby. I also think lots of people are tired of stocks and traditional investments...they're just boring and the fees associated with them are real...unlike cards.

Everything will cycle, everything will have it ups and downs but over the long term the general hobby will be fine.

Also...art is everywhere and affects us all whether you engage or not IMO.

[orly57]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

I understand the sentiment behind Adam's point on it being "pointless to predict the future," but it's hard for me to think it's pointless for not having some thought about the future stability of these assets. If I had no regard for future value, I'd feel like I'd be doing my family a great disservice by being reckless with my spending.

I, like others, am bullish, at least when it comes to high-eye-appeal HoFers from popular sets. The biggest spenders I've met in the hobby happen to cluster in age from late 30s to late 40s. These dudes have a deep passion for the sport of baseball and for collecting. It's not a phase for them. They will outlive boomers. It's a small sample size, but I think it's indicative of a bigger trend of dudes coming into money and trying to reconnect with meaningful sh*t from the past. Bottom line, I think we'll be fine for at least another 40 years; at least that's what I tell myself and my wife.

I agree. The biggest spenders I know are in their late 30s to mid-50's. i think this is only natural, considering these are the peak financial years for an adult male. Sean did raise some interesting issues about supply going up as the baby-boomers' collections make their way back into market. But I don't think this will affect the values of rare cards, high end cards, or cards of the legends.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by packs

Worthless in what way? What does that mean? How are shoes worthless? How is a house worthless? Do you not consider architecture to be art? Advertisements are worthless? Do you wear clothes? Do you have furniture? Do you watch television?
Go to the movies? Art affects your life every day.

Lawn ornaments, comic books, comic strips, cartoons, posters, logos. I wouldn't pay a penny for any of that stuff. I would throw away advertisements unless they had a famous baseball player on it. The idea that everyone has the same collecting interests is silly. There will always be people collecting baseball and sports items and who have no interest in items like you listed. Shoes and t- shirts are meant to wear, not collect. I throw them out when I am done using them. I watch sports on TV. I rarely go to the movies, I consider them a waste of money. Art affects your life, not mine.

[packs]

Originally Posted by rats60

Lawn ornaments, comic books, comic strips, cartoons, posters, logos. I wouldn't pay a penny for any of that stuff. I would throw away advertisements unless they had a famous baseball player on it. The idea that everyone has the same collecting interests is silly. There will always be people collecting baseball and sports items and who have no interest in items like you listed. Shoes and t- shirts are meant to wear, not collect. I throw them out when I am done using them. I watch sports on TV. I rarely go to the movies, I consider them a waste of money. Art affects your life, not mine.

Utilitarian means something has a practical use. My point was artwork is not limited to million dollar paintings. You wear clothes a person designed. You live in a house with furniture someone designed. You read books people wrote. That’s all art.

[joshuanip]

Originally Posted by packs

Utilitarian means something has a practical use. My point was artwork is not limited to million dollar paintings. You wear clothes a person designed. You live in a house with furniture someone designed. You read books people wrote. That’s all art.

Packs - store of value is also a utility.....I.E. gold, absolutely worthless, cant even use it for industrial reasons like a diamond, yet the shiny stuff retains value.

[Michael B]

Originally Posted by joshuanip

I disagree with your opinion on the utility of cards. As stated earlier, the TPGs and online venues have increased the utility of the cards. For art, its a 1 of 1 market (sans the giglees, lithos, and other crap out there). For cards, there is more than one and a standardized grading system, so you have a baseline of what the market is. That baseline is accretive to the utility and thus value of the asset.

But hell, as others say, who cares, we are all dead eventually (and what else am I going to do in the meantime).

This is actually a myth.

There are 5 versions of Rodin's "The Thinker" all in bronze which were created under his supervision. There is also the original production plasters of the statue.

Jacques-Louis David painted 5 versions of "Napoleon at Saint-Bernard Pass" also known as "Napoleon Crossing the Alps" between 1801 and 1805. They are all about the same size at 2.6 x 2.2m. The differences are in the color of the cape and the background. All are considered originals. I saw the 1803 version at The Belvedere in Vienna, Austria in September.

There are exceptions to every rule, but people state the mantra that art is 1 of 1 when there are many cases when it is just not true.