Ebay Prewar Deluge of BIN's

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

If you don't care what VCP says recent sales have been, I wouldn't expect you'd do particularly well with BINs. You may think the market is stupid and irrational and just the product of a bunch of greedy idiots but it is what it is. I'd love to walk into the best steak restaurant in New York or Dallas and tell them I think their steak is only fairly worth $9, but I'm not sure that discussion will go very far either.
I don't disagree that sometimes you can often get a better price at auction that with BINs.

Steve,

First off, I didn't say all prices are stupid or irrational. I made a specific reference to the '52 Mantles because I find that entire issue with the recent blow-up in prices of highly graded cards from the 50s, 60s and 70s to just astound me. Let's face it, as rare and tough as '52 Topps high numbers are, it seems if you want to get one, you can find them. I was mostly making a reference to the fact that dealers will take the ridiculous prices of these PSA 9 and 10 cards that have in recent months gone through the roof, and use those as a reference point in setting prices on lower grade cards. I can't say for a fact that they are doing it in all cases but, I'm sure there's a decent percentage that look at that higher grade price jump and use that to try and get more for their own cards they're selling. Just like there are then people that speculate on these same cards and think that since they've risen in price so dramatically in such a short period of time that they'll jump on the bandwagon and look to make a fast buck by flipping those same cards a few months/years later for a profit. As a collector only, I'm not buying to flip the card for a quick profit, to finance other purchases or make a fast buck for myself. So for to me to go in on this spiraling upward pricing boom and buy cards now is idiotic. And I'm fearful for those that are doing so that they are going to at some point get stuck with the proverbial "hot potato" should the market cool down and correct itself while they're still holding a formerly high-priced card. That was why I also made reference to the people who were accumulating 1980's rookie cards, thinking that in 10-20-30 years they'd jump in prices like the 1950's rookies had been doing, and become rich and retire. The dealers and people selling those rookie cards back then were taking advantage of the greed and such of those people by selling them as many cards as they could. It was all speculative and because no one thought about how many cards were actually being produced, they didn't realize there were so many more than people who would actually want them that they would be virtually worthless after all those years.

It really isn't much different than the people who sell modern cards by the process they call "Breaking" nowadays. The underlying concepts are basically greed and gambling. The current card manufacturers try to produce what I think of as manufactured rarities and get modern card buyers to believe they are worth a ton of money. So the "Breakers" can sell spots to open up these cases of new cards so the buyers can hopefully get lucky and hit on one of the supposed rare cards which they then normally turn around and sell right away. The part that gets me is, who is paying hundreds/thousands of dollars for these supposedly rare cards that keep fueling these people to keep buying the new products? With all the new product that keeps coming out every couple of weeks, with each one seemingly having more 1 of 1 cards, in my mind I can't fathom how they continue to hold any real value. By that I mean, there is a product that comes out with a 1 of 1 card of Mike Trout this week from Topps. Then in two weeks Panini comes out with a new issue that has a different Mike Trout 1 of 1 card. Then a week later a different Topps issue comes out with yet another 1 of 1 Mike Trout card. And so on ad nauseum. Until after a while there are literally hundreds of different Mike Trout 1 of 1 cards out there. At that point I feel, they have extremely watered down the value of all the 1 of 1 Trout cards that were issued. To me, this is akin to when they first started putting game used cards in packs. At first, they were a novelty and there were very few out there so players like Jeter and McGwire would go for big bucks. But after they became popular, every card manufacturer started doing the same thing and issued game used cards, year after year, until now there were literally hundreds of different Jeter and McGwire game used cards on the market. Now when you go to shows you'll see dealers with boxes of those old game used cards that they can't even give away. Same thing with the autographed modern cards.

So what is so special about these modern manufactured rarities they're selling now? I've also heard speculation and rumors that the card companies themselves may be going out and purchasing back some of these cards they issued, at ridiculously high prices, or at least having representatives do it for them. This creates an air that these manufactured rarities have significant value, and keeps fueling the people that want to gamble to get them in the first place. How is that much different than the shilling accusations, and convictions, that we talk about here on Net54? In the end, it seems to me that it is just another example of how we can't really count on price guides or services to really be able to gauge the true market and give us accurate pricing. So I stick to my guns and offer what "I" think is fair.

And don't think what I'm talking about is only applicable to these modern collectors. We've even had a few of these "vintage breaks" done/advertised through Net54. Tell me that the only reason someone isn't willing to shell out say $20-$30 for a spot in say a 1963 Topps set being broken up and sold is that they aren't hoping to win one of the Mantle cards or maybe the Rose rookie. Of course it is, it's all gambling and getting a fast something for almost nothing.

Now getting back to your commentary, comparing going into a restaurant to buy a steak with bidding on a baseball card is definitely not an apples to apples comparison. Buying a steak, a gallon of gas, or a loaf of bread, is something that everyone does, and pretty much has to do to eat, live, etc. Those are more of what I think of as purchases of commodities, that everyone out there is looking to buy and acquire. The market for what we collect, pre-war baseball cards, is extremely thin when you put it into the perspective of the population as a whole. And the truth be told, no one really needs an old pre-war baseball card for anything other than the esthetic or intrinsic value that the buyer him/herself places on it.

Now you may argue that going to a great steakhouse is going to command a much higher price than grabbing a burger at Mickey-D's, and I wholeheartedly agree. But, a steak is a steak. I can go to a top butcher and without to much exception, buy the same cuts of meat that even the best steakhouses sell and just make it myself. What these top steakhouses are really selling, and getting the big bucks for, is the experience and ambiance a diner receives at their restaurant as opposed to other places. The training and quality of the chef, how the steak is prepared, what it comes with, the fact that you don't have to take the time to do the cooking and the dishes afterwards, and so on and so forth. I've been to nice steakhouses, like Gibson's in Chicago, and am happy to pay what they want for their steak, because of the experience, ambiance, service, whatever you want to call it. I've also grabbed a burger at Mickey-D's because I was hungry right then, and it was cheap, fast and accessible. Exactly what added ambiance or experience are you getting by buying a card off Ebay on a BIN item????

So if you think I don't do well with BINs, that may be the case but, only for those dealers who somehow think in their pricing that because you're buying from them, you should be happy to pay their ridiculous high prices. To use the example you used, I just don't see how purchasing a card via BIN on Ebay from someone like Dean's, 707 or COMC is giving me any added experience or ambiance like going to a fine steakhouse. Fact is, it doesn't. So why would I want to drink their kool-aid and pay their price. That being said, I still do occasionally buy some things off Ebay with a reasonable BIN or get an item I made what I feel is a reasonable OBO offer on.

Remember, buyers/collectors of pre-war cards are an extremely thin market when compared to the number of people who will go out to buy a steak. As such, it should really be a Buyer's market for Pre-War cards and not dictated so much by dealer's who want you to think things are as valuable as they would have you believe them to be. I just stick to my guns and offer what I think is reasonable and fair. If someone doesn't want to take it, that is fine with me. Just afford me the same courtesy by accepting that I at least made an offer and simply saying no thank you, with no added histrionics or crap.

As I already said, it is not my fault if someone paid more for something than I feel it is really worth. I am not obligated to pay them enough so they can profit on it. On the off chance I ever really did sell something, I'd mostly try to just do a trade or simply look to get back about what I had into it. I don't plan on retiring on my collection and wish the investors/speculators would get out of the game so I could get more of the items I'd like to get at what I feel are reasonable prices. High BINs are to me, a very direct link to this thinking that dealers are entitled to a profit. It is a hobby to me, not something I need and have to have to live. If prices get too high, and my budget doesn't allow it, I simply cease buying. And that is to the detriment of dealers, not me. I collect enough oddball and varied items that I can pretty much always find something within my budget to satisfy and scratch my collecting itch.

You're right though, the market is what it is and by myself, I certainly can't, and don't expect, to change it. It did strike a nerve with me though when the OP was referring to high prices dealers charge on BINs and I felt like putting in my two cents worth on the topic (Even though with all this posting it seems more like a buck and a half at least.) Have fun collecting though is my motto, and also my wish for everyone else. Have a good one.

BobC