Population estimating

[steve B]

There isn't really any good way of getting numbers to put to any production from that era. It's not until around 92-3 that there's even any way to get a reliable estimate.

But, it should be possible to make some very rough comparisons.
For example, I looked closely at some T206 pop reports, and found that almost every HOFer was graded roughly twice as often as a common from the same series. There were a few oddities and commons that appear to be anything but common, but for a normal common if there were 50 graded there would be about 100 of most HOFers. (Odder still, there are more Magies graded than Magees)

That's less likely to apply as cards get newer and the price differences are larger. But any particular player who is popular should be sent in approximately as often across several years unless their card is in a tougher series or is their rookie card. So if for example there are 15% more 65 Mantles than 64 or 67 you can feel fairly confident that the print run was roughly 15% more that year. (Do NOT think I'm saying that's the actual facts, I just used that as a made up example. ) The timing of different series will affect it a bit, today we typically see sets as lower numbered series and high numbers, but in the past it was seen as being more divided, low numbers, semi-highs, sometimes a couple different tiers. 52 Topps was a good example with 1-80 being slightly higher, the series just under the high numbers being a bit higher, and of course the highs being special.

Aside from condition there really shouldn't be any odd short prints in any Topps series. They pretty much all fit within the sheet size. 57? Through 91 and a bit beyond the sheets on the press were double 132 card sheets. Cards that are slightly short printed on the left sheet should be non- short prints on the right sheet.
Because of the production methods some cards are more prone to printing/cutting issues, and won't be found well centered or without print defects. For some that will affect the number that get graded, If everyone is looking for 8 or higher, and the card is prone to being off center fewer will be sent in as they're obviously not going to get the high grade.

So some general comparisons can be made, but even those have to be tempered with a fair degree of knowledge about the set and the ones from the yeas before and after. And some hobby history.

A decent example- A long time ago I bought a partial set of 75 OPC, and haven't really added any to it. Maybe 4-5 commons. Looking at the set, someone who knows or can look up historical pricing could come close to pinpointing when I bought it based on which key cards are there or not there. For instance there's a Yount, but no Brett. So I got it before people started looking at Yount as a potential HOFer. The other rookies that are or aren't there would narrow it down even more. I haven't looked in a long time, but I think Lynn is missing but Rice isn't. That sort of thing.

Steve B