Your top 3 non HOFers

[steve B]

Glad to see you take a look at those two!

There's a few things that fall into the "can't put numbers to it" category, and a few personal observations from going to a lot of games from 77- 82 (When you could walk up to the ticket window and buy what are now upper box seats as grandstand seats for a few dollars)

First the observations on each, if you saw them play then it'll sound familiar.
Rices HRs were usually amazing, ones I'd figure as almost demoralizing to the other team. I've never seen a ball get out of the park so fast, and many were well over the net in left. One he hit in I think 75 was supposedly one of only 3-4 to leave the park completely to the right of the flagpole. And the guys who hit the others was some pretty good company (I think...Mantle, Foxx, and one other. ) On the downside, he was treated somewhat poorly by the press, and didn't help himself there at all. Later in his career, there was something written about him needing glasses. He eventually got them, but picked a pretty awful style. And then took a lot of kidding about it to the point he stopped wearing them. His performance with glasses was much better, no big surprise.
He did lead the league 4 straight years in grounding into double plays and was often in the top 10, one knock against him that is accurate.
He wasn't really that bad of a fielder. 11 years in the top 10 for LF assists, and led twice in LF doubleplays and once in Fielding pct. for LF Of course like any left fielder in Fenway the assists and doubleplays are somewhat easier. And no matter how good you come across in stats, when it goes wrong .......Yikes.
The year he retired was in a stretch where the "old" players were being treated very poorly by the management. Not even an opportunity to retire gracefully, just an announcement that they weren't being invited to spring training. And the date of the "special day" to Honor them, always a late season game against a poor gate draw. Rice basically checked out after that, his last game was August 3rd. The Sox currently say "formally retired" August 6, while Baseball reference says released Nov 13. Any way you look at it, it was an UGLY split. He didn't come back for Jim Rice day, which was also Bob Stanley day. (Stanley was there, and knifed one last beach ball ) How much his injuries affected him at the time is hard to say. His performance was poor for sure, but his replacement at DH Sam Horn ended up with an identically miserable WAR and displayed no power at all.


Evans got the same poor treatment the next year but opted to become a free agent. Being fairly close to 400HR probably was part of that. Health issues really prevented him from continuing. Usually back spasms, which back then I always thought "really?! Back spasms? Then I got into my late 40's and had a couple.....And totally understood.

He was a really amazing fielder. Right in Fenway is a bit easier than left, but only a bit. And he played it very well. What really set him apart was the arm. The only comparable player I've seen is Ichiro. There's no stat for how often guys hit a single that might stretch to a double and decided not to because of who the fielder was. Which is too bad because he'd probably be among the leaders. Led three times in RF assists, and three times in RF double plays, but that really doesn't tell the whole story.

He was only on the HOF ballot 3 years, getting 5.9% 10.4 % and 3.6 % that last year was the one that made me really question how the HOF elections work. Because there's a reason he only got 3.6 and was off the ballot. Or more accurately, several reasons.
Nolan Ryan 1st year 98.8%
George Brett 1 st year 98.2%
Robin Yount 1st year 77.5%
Carlton Fisk 1st year 66.4%
Plus 5 other eventual HOF ers ahead of him. There simply weren't enough votes to go around to keep a good fielder or even a great fielder on the ballot. I've felt since then that the 5% cutoff should be adjusted when there's a particularly strong group in its first year.


Steve B

Originally Posted by the 'stache

When I compared the careers of Jim Rice, and Dwight Evans, let's just say my eyebrow raised.

Both played in the outfield for the Red Sox, Evans in right, Rice in left. Both played together for almost the entirety of their careers. Evans came up in '72, Rice in '74. Evans played in Boston until 1991, when he was a free agent picked up by Baltimore. He played 19 years at Fenway, putting up 2,505 games as a member of the Red Sox. Rice retired after the 1989 season. That's sixteen years out there together. Every opening day of Jim Rice's career, Evans was there, too.

I get that Rice had some massive seasons early on in his career. So did Freddy Lynn, who was in center '74 to '80. But between '77 and '79, Rice was ridiculous with the bat; his average output for those three years: 114 runs, 207 hits, 31 doubles, 12 triples, 41 home runs, 128 RBI, a .320 AVG, and a slash line of .376/.596/.972. Those are real averages, not adjusted to 162 games. He only missed six games those three seasons. He led the league in total bases all three seasons. But that was really his peak. He had some othre really good seasons, and one other great season (1983; .305 AVG, 39 HR, 126 RBI, leading in the last two metrics. His 344 total bases led the league, too, and he slashed .361/.550/.911). In 1984, he hit only .280, but hit 28 home runs, and drove in 122. In 1986, he hit .324, driving in 110, but only hit 20 home runs.

But Rice was a below average defender, and by WAR, his career total of 47.4 just doesn't add up.

Now, Evans didn't have the huge seasons early in his career. From 1972 to 1980, his 162 game averages were not at all impressive: .262 AVG, 20 home runs, 68 RBI, and a .792 OPS. But Evans is the rare player who truly came into his own after age 30. 1981 was his breakout offensive season; he led the American League with 22 home runs, hit .296, and 85 walks, 215 total bases and a .937 OPS all led the league. For the first time, he received MVP votes, finishing third in the league. From 1981 to 1989, his 162 game averages spiked considerably; he hit .281, averaging 109 runs scored, 30 home runs, 104 RBI, and 106 walks versus 114 strikeouts. And, unlike Rice, he was a highly regarded defender. Evans won a total of eight Gold Gloves in his career. And, his career WAR of 66.9 is 19.5 higher than Rice's career total.

So, why is Evans not in, and Rice is? I think, when it comes to baseball, voters rely heavily on reputation when handing out awards. Rice became one of the most feared hitters in the league early in his career. Evans was consistent, but not spectacular.

Evans played four years longer than Rice. But, because of Evans' walk rate, he had only 771 more at bats than Rice. So, there really isn't a great discrepancy in their home run frequency. Rice averaged a home run every 21.5 at bats (382 home runs in 8,225 at bats). Evans averaged a home run every 23.4 at bats (385 home runs in 8,996 at bats). And their career OPS + metric is nearly identical; 127 for Evans, 128 for Rice. And though Rice had a much higher career batting average (.298 vs .272 for Evans), he had a lower OBP. Rice walked 670 times in his career, and Evans walked 1,391 times. Rice's OBP of .352 pales in comparison to Evans' .370.

When we consider that these two players had equal power for their career, yet Evans got on base more, and was a vastly better fielder, it seems to me as if the Hall elected the wrong Red Sox outfielder. It took Rice fifteen years to get in. Evans, however, appeared on only three ballots. He fell off the ballot after getting only 3.6% of the vote in 1999.