Quote:
Originally Posted by Leon
You either haven't been reading the board or didn't understand what has been plainly said, imo. They ARE purchasing for investment.
Put a very high grade '52 Mick out there or a T206 Wags....or many, many of the high grade HOF rookies and there are a LOT of investors.. not buying for collecting and unfortunately they barely know what they are buying except pieces of paper in plastic. The cards are almost secondary to some....AND NOT for enjoyment.
A board member investor who has shown hundreds of thousands of $$ in cards on this board asked another board member, privately yesterday, what a flip was. Not quite a collector I would say.... But maybe what ALL of my friends in the hobby are telling me is wrong. (and many see who is bidding as they are auctioneers)  Don't be foolish, there are a ton of investors in the hobby right now.
ps. Congrats on the CJ Bob...
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With all due respect, Leon, it appears that some of these, perhaps the most knowledgeable, are cut from a different cloth. I'm speaking of Bob's post re the Cracker Jack Jackson, of course, but also of a M101 Ruth rookie in "7" that supposedly went to the owner of the Arizona Diamond Backs a few years ago. Was Al Taubman strictly investing in his $500 million or so art collection, auctioned off through Sotheby's fairly recently? One would think that if that was the case, it would have been up for auction before, rather than after, his death. Sure, art is art, but collectibles are also collectibles, and their appreciation/depreciation follow rather constant principles throughout their various iterations, almost like the laws of physics. That's why one particular 1964 Aston Martin recently changed hands for $11 million. This special edition model was supposed to have a manufacturing run of 25, but only 19 were made. Gee, might "rare and significant" have something to do with the above?
It's also why 1967 L88 Corvettes have recently changed hands for $3-$4 million--20 made, with 560 horsepower 427 racing engines that ultimately ended the Shelby Cobra's domination of Corvettes on the longer sports car racing tracks (165 mph top end for the much higher drag coefficient Cobras, versus about 190 mph for the L88 Vettes). These things will appreciate due to their, what was that phrase again, "rare and significant" nature, regardless of the initial motivation for their purchase, and in many cases, are simply being snapped up and disappearing from the market for quite a few years. They're being kept and held because well-healed, knowledgeable collectors LIKE them--sure, they like the thought that their value will increase, but do you really think that guys like John J. Pittman, who assembled a $40 million coin collection over his lifetime (purchasing mostly in the rare, undervalued, quiet areas, because as an Eastman Kodak chemical engineer, he could never afford the so-called "trophy" coins, such as the 1913 Liberty head nickel, 1804 silver dollar, 1894 S dime) and kept it for his entire lifetime was primarily motivated for investment? He LIKED his coins, which is why they only came up for auction AFTER his death, just as Bob quite obviously is delighted with his '15 Cracker Jack Jackson.
You're probably right that there is a significant amount of big dollar, near-mindless investing going on now, but IMHO, it would be incorrect to ascribe all the huge price increases we've been seeing in truly significant items largely to that factor. Just beware that if something seems overpriced relative to the existing number of examples, it probably is, and that these are the items, just as occurred in the coin and car collecting fields, that are in for the greatest correction in the market.
You are also correct that I have not been able to stay in touch with this truly great board you have fashioned as much as I would have liked for the last few months, due to an overwhelming work load (on the plus side, that heavy load has financed some long-sought after acquisitions). But the various collectible fields are far more alike than they are different, and the same principles will apply over time. I find the coin collecting field to be the closest parallel to cards, and it's history, having become an organized hobby roughly 120 years before cards, offers some unique insights as to where ours is likely going. The eminent Q. David Bowers, author, collector and coin dealer for more than half a century, wrote that, over time, the collector (as opposed to the investor) is king, because the former has taken the time to study the field, whereas the latter are often like lemmings, following the herd even as they plunge over the cliff. The collector, who in Bower's considerable experience enjoys the highest LONG TERM appreciation in his collection, buys and HOLDS, because he truly LIKES what he has obtained.
Hopefully, based on the above, the current market is not nearly as dominated by investment-only types as your post seems to indicate, but if it is, I would stay away from purchases where condition rarities seem to be hoisting up the prices of far lower condition examples to rationally unwarranted levels, where the latter are really not hard to come by. Persistent trends throughout the histories of other collecting fields make such "investments" a very, very risky proposition. Depending upon their significance, they will be cyclical in appreciation at best.
My very best wishes always,
Larry
06-14-2016, 01:40 PM
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