1914 Baltimore Ruth....Inflation

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Leon

I think this guy's description needs an update. The days of a 100k - 1914 Ruth, in any kind of presentable condition, passed by at least a few years ago. Certainly this is one of the all time great cards and high on my want/wish list. (I doubt very seriously I will ever own one)

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1914-BABE-RU...item2804576d2a


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+++1. An example in Poor to Fair sold for $152,000 in 2007, and for $450,000 in 2013 in the same grade. There is one in VG or thereabouts condition out there, and as I've predicted before, it will hit 8 figures in my lifetime, just based on straight-forward math--a really good collectible will appreciate at the rate of 12% compounded annually or even better. If I live another 30 years, which is completely in line with the ages my mother and father reached, then even the poor to fair example will have doubled in value under the rule of 72's (simply divide the number of years it takes to double the item's value into 72 to arrive at the annual compound rate of interest--if it doubles every six years on average, 72 divided by 6 = 12%) at just that 12% rate FIVE TIMES during that span. Which means that it will be worth about $900,000 in 2019; $1.8 million in 2025; $3.6 million in 2031; $7.2 million in 2036; and $14.2 million in 2041. While the rate of appreciation usually slows a bit as the absolute value escalates higher and higher, you can see by the simple math that 8 figures within 30 or so years is easily within reach for the highest graded example. Kinda wows you, doesn't it? But that's basically how the best coins and cars have behaved--an early '60's Ferrari in presentable condition is now worth 7-8 figures, any time, any place. A 1967 L88 Corvette (427 racing engine, with other racing performance options--just 20 made that year) is $3.5 to $4 Million now. They were certainly available for low five figures in the early to mid-'70s.

I'll never own one of the 1914 Baltimore News Ruths either, but there may be cards out there that can eventually come close to those values, but which are much more affordable now. How to find them? Just study and stay on the cutting edge, well ahead of the pack, and make your best picks, following the simple formula of value being a function of rarity, significance and condition. The trick, of course, is to analyze correctly with regard to rarity and significance, and figure that collecting trends will change, as they have significantly in the last 25 years in cards, as well as in cars and coins (as just one possible example, I don't think, that if a 1914 Ruth reaches those figures, a 1925 Exhibit Lou Gehrig rookie will still be well under $100K in ExMt--there are more of the Gehrigs, of course, but not that many more--it is still a very tough card to acquire in presentable condition).

Highest regards,

Larry

PS: The first 1914 Baltimore News coming out for public sale that I am aware of was part of the Copeland sale/auction--circa 1989 or so. The price then? Just $6,000!