Adrian Beltre - HOFer?

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by freakhappy

^^^This answer is spot on.

Is he a HOFer? Duh! If he continues to do what he's been doing for the past decade or so, then he will end with very impressive numbers. He should be able to eclipse the 3k hit mark within three years. Does anyone know how difficult that is to do? If you do, then you realize he's a HOFer...not to mention he will probably be close to 450-500 hrs too. For those of you that think he needs awards and "honors" next to his name to enter the HOF, you haven't been paying attention to how the MLB and other professional sports work. All Star nomination is based mainly on fan voting...so why do we care so much about who gets voted into an All-Star game? The answer is we shouldn't. How about MVP's and batting titles? Don't look at that...look at how GOOD he was overall and judge him by that. Mike Trout had two crazy MVP type seasons as where he ended up runner up and in his third year he finally ended up getting the award. Guess what...the two previous seasons he had better numbers than the MVP season! MVP awards don't necessarily go the the actual MVP of the league...if your team is in the bottom half of the league, you have zero chance of winning the award...we all know this already, just reminding you that this award can be a joke and bias sometimes.

And if you have to think whether someone should be in the HOF, then you are doing your job, but having to think about it doesn't mean they don't belong. There are only a few players that are no-brainers, but that doesn't mean that they are the only ones that belong in. Yes, there are tiers in the HOF, but let's not judge the HOF on whether or not you compare to Babe Ruth...almost no one does.

That being said, if Beltre can continue for at least a few more years, he's an easy choice for the Hall.

First of all, it's not the last "decade or so". It's been five years. And five darned good years, and one great year a long time ago, means everybody should just ignore the litany of mediocre seasons he had? Safeco affected his power numbers, yes. Safeco didn't account for his career .307 OBP there. A good hitter learns how to adjust to the park they're in. If he couldn't hit the ball out of the field, he could have turned into a doubles machine.

I think Beltre will get in. I just don't think he's the slam dunk people are making him out to be, and I don't know if he deserves to get in based on what he's done to date.

As of 2009, 1,681 games into his career, he was a career .270 hitter with a .779 OPS. Ignoring 1998, his rookie year when he only played in 78 games, he played in 11 other seasons. He received MVP votes, not top five MVP votes, or top ten MVP votes...any MVP votes in exactly one season.

One.

He managed to play a decade's worth of other games, and didn't warrant a single MVP vote in any other season. Not one. That's what the baseball writers thought of Adrian Beltre as a baseball player to date. He wasn't just not an MVP, or an MVP candidate, he wasn't even worthy of showing up on the list of MVP vote getters. There are about 20-25 players in each league that get votes each seasons.

Eleven seasons into his career, he'd not been an All Star, not even once, though he played the much of his career at the hot corner in one of the biggest cities in America. That's what the fans, his peers, and managers in the league thought of him. He won a single Silver Slugger Award, in his big 2004 season. He won two Gold Gloves.

If we remove his big 2004 season, want to know what his stats are through 12 seasons? And his averages per 162 games? Tell me if this is a Hall of Fame player, or even close.

Adrian Beltre 1998 to 2009 (excluding 2004):

1,525 games
1500 hits
5,687 at bats
724 runs
316 doubles
26 triples
202 home runs
785 RBI
425 walks
997 K

His 162 game averages:

604 at bats
76 runs
159 hits
34 doubles
3 triples
21 home runs
83 RBI
45 walks
103 strikeouts
.264 average
.315 OBP
.435 SLG
.750 OPS

Then comes 2010, and a trip to Boston. And Beltre, a man who hit over .300 exactly one time in 12 seasons (.334 in 2004), and even better than .280 only one other time (2000) suddenly hits .321 with the Sox. That doesn't necessarily have to mean something fishy happened, but it does at least beg the question "what happened"?

The last five years, he's been a .316 hitter, averaging 32 home runs and 105 RBI, with an .899 OPS.

He needs to have 3 more seasons at this same level, and then I think he gets in. Right now, he's borderline, in my opinion. While I think he's been outstanding, I can't just forget all the uninspired production we saw from him for a decade.