OT: Did Adam Dunn ruin his Hall chances

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Runscott

I wonder how many members the HOF would have today, if the voting was done only by current HOF members.

Dunno, but if the voting was done by 54 members, based on threads I have seen, it might double.

[Centauri]

Medal of Honor. When it started, they were handed out liberally. But as decades passed, it became a much harder thing, to the point where by 2000 you pretty much had to be superhuman, and die int he effort to get it. Relaxed somewhat under Obama.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Dunno, but if the voting was done by 54 members, based on threads I have seen, it might double.

No kidding. Threads like this one help remind me that even though I may disagree with some decisions made by the writers, that if "fans" voted it could be a lot worse.

[ejharrington]

I know people on both sides like to debate about too many / too few players but I think the Baseball Hall of Fame gets it right. Approximately 212 players (excluding Negro Leaguers) in Hall of Fame vs. approximately 18,000 players who have played MLB, or 1.2% of all players. To me, that is not "letting the floodgates open". At the same time, it is elite enough where every year very few players get in (unlike NFL / NBA/ NHL Halls of Fame) and there are some very good players excluded.

That being said, I will go to my grave believing Keith Hernandez is a Hall of Famer.

[jcmtiger]

This thread is to crazy. Dunn will never get into the HOF. Please!!!!! The HOF is for great players not average players.

Joe

[CMIZ5290]

Originally Posted by jcmtiger

This thread is to crazy. Dunn will never get into the HOF. Please!!!!! The HOF is for great players not average players.

Joe

+1....Holy cow, I don't even know that I would count Dunn as an average player...

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by ejharrington

That being said, I will go to my grave believing Keith Hernandez is a Hall of Famer.

Keith Hernandez was just John Olerud with less power. You think Olerud belongs in the HOF?

[Peter_Spaeth]

It's astonishing that Garvey didn't even make it to 275 HR. And looked at from today's perspective, he walked very little and his OBP wasn't that great.

[ejharrington]

Yes, that's what I wrote.. He was a great player who I was able to watch virtually every game from 83-88. I always thought he was the best player on the field, even better than Carter.

[sago]

Originally Posted by Tabe

Keith Hernandez was just John Olerud with less power. You think Olerud belongs in the HOF?

Hernandez is GOAT fielding first baseman. His range made the entire infield better. Overall better than Olerud.

[pbspelly]

We discussed Hernandez on another thread, and so I will re-print what I wrote there, since I still believe it:

Originally Posted by pbspelly

I don't have anything against Olerud, and really don't have an opinion about whether he deserves to be in the Hall (and Bill James,for one, has made the argument that Olerud does), but as an avid Mets fan for decades, I can tell you that Hernandez meant much more to his team than Olerud. Besides his fielding and hitting, Hernandez was the first team captain in Mets history and really kept a young, and notably rambunctious, team together. He was known for counseling pitchers during tight situations, a job usually designated for the shortstop, and even called pitches for some of the young guys.

His value is reflected in the MVP voting. Hernandez was named on the ballot eight different times, winning it once and coming close two other times. Olerud was listed only twice, coming in third in his best year.

And while Olerud was certainly an excellent fielding first baseman, Hernandez was so adept on bunts and at throwing to all bases that he changed the position. The Mets even used to have him handle outfield relay throws sometimes instead of the second baseman (although with Gregg Jeffries and Wally Backman at second, that is a bit more understandable). As one commentator has stated, "If you never saw him play, it's hard to describe how a first baseman can be such an impact player in the field. Just saying he won eleven consecutive Gold Gloves doesn't do him anything near justice. He was a master at fielding bunts, often cutting down the runner at second, and covered an enormous amount of ground. He covered a multitude of sins handling throws. Who else could hold together an infield that sometimes included Wally Backman at second, Howard Johnson at third, and Kevin Mitchell at short - on a first place team"

Bill James even devised a stat based on Hernandez, after figuring out that one way to measure a first baseman's range was to count assists at all bases other than first, and that Hernandez was making 20-30 more outs per season than the average team. He named it, "The Keith Hernandez Breakthrough.“

According to one sabermetric stat (Total Zone Runs), Hernandez's defense saved 117 runs in his career, the most ever for a first baseman. Olerud comes in fourth at 97, still excellent, but nearly 20% behind.

All this having been said, Hernandez still has to answer for a few things. Besides the short career and the admitted drug use, many consider his mustache and his "Just For Men" ads unpardonable.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by sago

Hernandez is GOAT fielding first baseman. His range made the entire infield better. Overall better than Olerud.

If Hernandez is the best-fielding 1B of all-time, Olerud is only a hair behind.

Offensively, Olerud hit 93 more homers in 146 more games. They had essentially the same batting average (.296 vs .295) with Olerud having a higher slugging percentage (.465 vs .436) and essentially the same OPS+ (129 vs 128). Hernandez won a (shared) MVP but never had a season that approached Olerud's 1993 - .363 average, .473 OBP, .599 slug, OPS+ of 186.

Originally Posted by pbspelly

According to one sabermetric stat (Total Zone Runs), Hernandez's defense saved 117 runs in his career, the most ever for a first baseman. Olerud comes in fourth at 97, still excellent, but nearly 20% behind.

So, defensively, the difference between them was 20 runs over the course of 2100 games (or so). A run every 105 games. I believe that difference would qualify as "statistically insignificant".

And, in the end, we're talking about what is, by FAR, the least-important (other than pitcher) and easiest position defensively. But among the guys who played that position, we're talking about Hernandez and Olerud - the elite of the elite defensively. They are really, really close defensively and really, really close offensively. If anything, Olerud was the best offensive player. And yet there are folks who advocate for Hernandez to be in the HOF but dismiss Olerud out-of-hand. That doesn't compute.